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Week 5 was forgettable from this article’s standpoint. I thought for sure Aidan O’Connell would be out for Purdue, and it turns out, Minnesota was out their best offensive player Mo Ibrahim. Memphis covered against Temple for the first time, ever. Overtime losses, underdogs falling oh so close to winning outright. Just dreadful. But we’re on to the Week 6 college football slate.
Three ranked matchups on the Week 6 college football docket. Summer has turned to fall. It’s the perfect apple picking weather, maybe visit a winery after. But first, college football. Here are my favorite Week 6 college football plays.
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Week 5: 4-7 (-3.6 units)
YTD: 25-24 (-.65 units)
Missouri (2-3) vs. Florida (3-2) (Florida -11; O/U 53.5)
Florida -11 (-110) – 2 units
Death. Taxes. Missouri failing to cover on the road. We hit on this trend in Week 2 when Missouri traveled to little Manhattan to take on Kansas State; they got boat raced 40-12. The Tigers played Georgia close last week and nearly pulled off the upset of the season, but fell short late. This is a massive let down spot for Missouri, who is 3-8 ATS on the road and 2-6 as away dogs under Eliah Drinkwitz. Take the Gators as they look for their first SEC win under Billy Napier.
Texas (3-2) vs. Oklahoma (3-2) (Texas -8.5; O/U 65)
Over 65 (-110)
This is one of the most exciting rivalries in college football. These two teams have cleared this number in four of their last six matchups. Oklahoma has surrendered 41 and 55 points, respectively, in their first two Big 12 matchups under Brent Venables. Texas is expected to return Quinn Ewers, who we last saw picking apart Alabama’s defense. Oklahoma has surrendered 275 and 361 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. Hello, Bijan Robinson. Dillon Gabriel’s status is uncertain after leaving last week’s game. Expect a shootout in this rivalry.
#4 Michigan (5-0) vs. Indiana (3-2) (Michigan -22.5; O/U 59)
Michigan -22.5 (-110)
As a Hoosier, this pains me. I loved going to games like this with the hope a few hours before kickoff the Hoosiers could pull the upset. And at times, they had opportunities late in the fourth to win outright. But that’s not happening this week. With Tom Allen, the Hoosiers are 3-11-1 ATS as home underdogs; two of the three wins came in the weird COVID-19 season. Michigan does have a potential look ahead spot with a highly touted matchup against Penn State next week. But I think this gets out of hand early. Wolverines become bowl eligible in a Week 6 college football blowout.
Wisconsin (2-3) vs. Northwestern (1-4) (Wisconsin -10.5; O/U 44)
Under 44 (-110)
The under has hit in seven of the last ten meetings, including the last four played at Northwestern. Paul Chryst is out at Wisconsin and is replaced by defensive coordinator and Badger legend Jim Leonhard. I’m expecting the Badgers to get up for the interim and put on a defensive performance. A low scoring game in Evanston with the Badgers leaving on top.
Texas Tech (3-2) vs. #7 Oklahoma State (4-0) (Oklahoma State -9.5; O/U 66)
Oklahoma State -9.5 (-110)
Oklahoma State is 9-1-1 ATS in conference play since the start of 2021. Senior quarterback Spencer Sanders is top-25 nationally in YPA (8.8) and has thrown for 11 touchdowns to two interceptions. Oklahoma State has broken even in turnover margin to start the season; Texas Tech is tied for 122nd at -6. Texas Tech will have to air it out against Oklahoma State; the Red Raiders rank 4th nationally in passing yards per game (362.2 YPG). The Cowboys rank 121st in pass defense, 4th worse amongst Power Five schools. But the turnover woes can hinder the Red Raiders chances. Back the Cowboys.
Oregon State (3-2) vs. Stanford (1-4) (Oregon State -5.5; O/U 57.5)
Oregon State -5.5 (-105)
Stanford has failed to cover their last 11 games. The Cardinal are 2-11 ATS as underdogs and 3-13 ATS since the start of last season. Stanford is the worst team nationally in turnover margin (-10; -2.5/gm). David Shaw could be the next head coach dismissed this season. Close out the Week 6 college football by taking the Beavers over the Cardinal.
Not much on the card for this week. What’s your favorite play? Let me know on Twitter! Follow me @DrewRoberts_and let me know!