Week 1 Thursday Night Showdown on DraftKings

It’s finally time for football!!! The season kicks off with the Buffalo Bills heading to Los Angeles to face the Rams. Most of what we’re going off is last years stats so let’s see where these teams finished.

The Bills were 3rd in the NFL with 29.8 points per game. They were 1st on defense with 18.3 points allowed and gave up the least passing yards and TDs last season. Now before you say but they don’t have Tre’davious White!!! They actually allowed less passing yards per game last season with White out of the lineup. They were basically middle of the pack rush yards allowed.

The Rams were 6th with 27 points per game last season. They were 9th on defense allowing 21.3 pts. They gave up the 11th most passing yards last season but the 2nd least passing TDs. They also gave up the 6th least rushing yards.

Now for setting lineups. A lot of the contests on DraftKings are large fields so I will have a lot more lineups than a normal week. Most people are going to focus on the passing attacks for both teams. They’ll likely lean heavier on the Bills who are favored. I’ll attack this game in many different ways including the possibility of it being a shootout. The bulk of my lineups will have Allen and Kupp but they’ll likely be popular Captain choices so I’ll mainly use them as flex plays.

A contrary way to build could be playing as if the game is slower paced. If I’m using a kicker in my lineup I prefer Bass over Gay but won’t be over weight on either of them. I’ll focus on the running game and using backs from each team thinking the total hits the under in a couple lineups. I will have quite a bit of Singletary and Akers. I don’t mind Henderson but will likely only sprinkle in Moss and Cook in larger field lineups.

Captain/Flex

Josh Allen $18,000/$12,000

Josh Allen is good at football. That’s it. No but seriously the upside he provides with his legs obviously makes him one of the safest plays with one of the highest ceilings. Allen had 17 rush attempts inside the ten yard line last year which is the same as Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara.

Stefon Diggs $13,500/$9,000

Diggs was fine statistically last season but lacked ceiling games despite playing in one of the best offenses in football. He only topped 25 PPR points once all season. That being said he’s worth a shot at captain with his target share. He averaged 9.6 targets per game last season. Add an over/under in the 50s and a salary that isn’t overly prohibitive.

Gabe Davis $10,800/$7,200

Davis actually tied for the 10th most targets inside the 20 yard line despite only playing 48 percent of snaps. He has 13 career TDs through two seasons while being a part time player. He showed the ceiling in the playoff game last year where he went off for 201 yards and four scores.

Allen Robinson $9,300/$6,200

A nice savings with plenty of upside. Robinson is playing with by far the best offense/QB he’s ever played for. The Rams threw on 60% of their plays last season. A healthy Robert Woods averaged 7.6 targets and 62 yards per game last year and Robinson is a better talent.

Isaiah McKenzie $3,600/$2,400

There is a possibility that he is the most productive WR in this game. The Bills threw the 3rd most passes per game last year and have 199 vacated targets so he should see some opportunity. Cole Beasley saw over 100 targets each of the last three seasons from the slot where McKenzie will lineup. I don’t think he will be extremely popular as a captain and could provide some salary savings.

 

The Rest

Cooper Kupp $12,400

I know its crazy with him being the best play in this game but he’s the most expensive and probably most popular so I won’t use him at captain. The captain salary is very prohibitive. It doesn’t take much analysis, he had an incredible season 145 receptions, 1900 yards and 16 TDs. He had a 32% target share. He’s great. Duh

Matthew Stafford $10,800

Stafford had nine games last year with three or more passing TDs. The Rams have some great weapons however I won’t use Stafford as captain partly due to the fact that QBs tend to be the most popular captain picks. Also the Bills allowed the least passing yards and passing TDs last year. I think he’s fine but worry about his upside in this game.

Cam Akers $8,000

It’s hard to know what to expect from Akers from a physical standpoint but he was able to return from the Achilles last season. Despite looking ineffective in the playoffs he still averaged 16.7 carries in those games. He won’t be very high owned with people’s apprehension and if he sees usage similar to the playoffs he’ll pay off.

Devin Singletary $7,000

Singletary is another guy that will go overlooked. Towards the end of last season the Bills relied on him heavily. From week through two playoff games, he averaged 17 carries and 72 yards. He also scored eight TDs over that span. He’s a sneaky captain option in larger field tournaments.

Dawson Knox $6,800

Knox had 18 targets inside the 20 yard line resulting in 6 TDs last season. He’s a good option and can be paired with Allen but doesn’t need to be and playing him without Allen will differentiate your lineup a bit.

Tyler Higbee $5,600

Another guy with 18 targets inside the 20 yard line last season was Higbee. That resulted in 5 TDs. The TD potential for both of these TEs makes them good plays and could even be paired together in lineups.

Jamison Crowder $5,000

Everything I said about McKenzie applies to Crowder. It’s possible that he ends up being the Cole Beasley role in this offense. I like McKenzie’s athleticism more but Crowder is a sneaky option.

Darrell Henderson $4,800

We’ve heard rumblings of a committee approach and it makes Henderson an interesting play. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. He also had at least three receptions in six of his ten starts last year.

Van Jefferson $4,600

Obviously he’ll have to actually play to be viable but his questionable status will likely deter a lot of people and he could go overlooked.

Zach Moss $3,000

There is a scenario where Moss is the goalline back and scores twice. That being said I’ll be underweight on him only using him in larger field tournaments.

James Cook $2,800

It’s hard to know how touches will be spread out but Cook has passing game upside. A few catches and a chunk yardage play here or there and he pays off at this price.

Ben Skowronek $1,800
Tutu Atwell $1,000

These two are nice salary savers and very viable if Van Jefferson doesn’t play. If Jefferson does play I probably wouldn’t play much of them.

RANKINGS | DYNASTY | REDRAFT | BEST BALL