#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of the Boys and Girls Club of Philadelphia, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of dynasty TE1 Kyle Pitts
Boys & Girls Clubs of Philadelphia have been serving youth in Philadelphia’s most impoverished communities for over 135 years. Our Clubs provide a variety of services to youth including preschool, after-school, and teen programming.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: NFC South
- 2021 Finish: 7-10
- Divisional Record: 2-4
- 2022 Projected Finish: 5-12
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 23rd
Atlanta Falcons Offense
Play Caller: Arthur Smith
The Atlanta Falcons offense struggled to run the football with any efficiency last season, forcing the team to rely way too often on the arm of 36-year-old Matt Ryan. The run game was 31st in rushing yards (1,451 yards) and 32nd in first downs rushing (75), which means defenses were not biting on RPO and play-action. The Falcons finished 19th and 28th in RPO and play-action success rate, respectively. The Falcons inability to establish the run forced the team to use 30-year-old wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson as it’s featured running back. To make matters worse, Calvin Ridley announced after just five games, that he was stepping away to work on his mental health. This was not the offense that Arthur Smith envisioned when he became the new head coach before the 2021 season.
As for 2022, Calvin Ridley is out for the year and Matt Ryan is now the QB1 in Indianapolis. On the bright side, Kyle Pitts was everything they hoped he would be, and the Falcons have also added Drake London, Tyler Allgeier, and Desmond Ridder by way of the NFL Draft. London slides in as the WR1 in this offense with Ridley now out of the picture. Allgeier should get plenty of action, which allows them to use Patterson more as a wide receiver, which after all is his natural position. Ridder will start the season as the QB2 in Atlanta, but I expect him to start at some point this season so the Falcons can see what they have prior to the 2022 NFL Draft. This team has a lot of holes on this roster including the offensive line, but there are some solid pieces to build a foundation around for years to come.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 313 (26th)
- Total Yards: 5,164 (29th)
- Total Plays: 1,006 (31st)
- Yards Per Play: 5.1 (23rd)
- 1st Downs: 306 (28th), Passing 196 (16th), Rushing 75 (32nd)
- Scoring Rate: 32.8% (24th)
- Turnover Rate: 14.7% (28th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 59.2 (31st)
- Pace of Play: 28.7 Seconds Per Play (15th)
- Passing Ratio: 61% (8th)
- Neutral Game Script: 58% (12th)
- RPO: 31 Snaps – 32.3% Success Rate
- Motion: 547 Plays – 34.7% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 135 Plays – 28.9% Success Rate
- Play Action: 176 Plays – 38.6% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 251 Targets (30th)
RBs: 146 Targets (2nd)
TEs: 158 Targets (3rd)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 324 Plays
OVR: 31% (42% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 72% (42% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 28% (42% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 280 Plays
OVR: 27% (42% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 65% (42% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 35% (42% Success Rate)
21 Personnel: 209 Plays
OVR: 20% (46% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 52% (48% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 48% (48% Success Rate)
22 Personnel: 120 Plays
OVR: 12% (51% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 58% (59% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 42% (40% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #70 Jake Matthews
Age: 30 HT: 6’5 WT: 309 College: Texas A&M Draft: RD1 Pick 6
OVR PFF: 71.3 Pass: 77.2 Run: 58.7 (1,029 Snaps)
Contract: 5 years / $18,500,000 per year (5th at position) – Expires 2027
LG: #68 Elijah Wilkinson
Age: 27 HT: 6’4 WT: 329 College: UMass Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 65.0 Pass: 54.6 Run: 68.5 (120 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $1,187,500 per year (36th at position) – Expires 2023
C: #61 Matt Hennessy
Age: 24 HT: 6’3 WT: 307 College: Temple Draft: RD3 Pick 78
OVR PFF: 77.1 Pass: 50.5 Run: 89.1 (988 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $1,171,594 per year (36th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #63 Chris Lindstrom
Age: 25 HT: 6’3 WT: 307 College: Boston College Draft: RD1 Pick 14
OVR PFF: 83.7 Pass: 65.3 Run: 87.6 (1,034 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $3,677,189 per year (17th at position) – Expires 2024
RT: #76 Kaleb McGary
Age: 27 HT: 6’6 WT: 306 College: Washington Draft: RD1 Pick 31
OVR PFF: 62.8 Pass: 50.6 Run: 72.2 (986 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $2,566,436 per year (22nd at position) – Expires 2023 – 5th year option available
“he’s going to have to rely on those legs more often than he would like”
QB Room
#1 Marcus Mariota
Age: 28 HT: 6’4 WT: 222 College: Oregon Draft: RD1 Pick 2
Contract: 2 years / $9,375,000 per year (19th at position) – Expires 2024
Marcus Mariota brings a lot more mobility to this offense than Matt Ryan ever could and he’s going to have to rely on those legs more often than he would like. Atlanta’s offensive line is ranked 28th for this upcoming season per Pro Football Focus. Mariota was the second overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans but would eventually lose the QB1 job to Ryan Tannehill. In his four years as a starter for the Titans he only threw for more than 20 touchdowns once in 2016 (26), when he threw for 3,426 yards and only nine interceptions through 15 games. He spent the last two seasons as Derek Carr’s backup in Las Vegas and will simply be a bridge quarterback in Atlanta until Desmond Ridder is ready to go.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 386 Attempts, 59.5% Comp Rate, 2,822 Yards (7.3 YPA), 17 Touchdowns (4.4%)
Rushing: 41 Attempts, 6.2 YPC, 253 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
#4 Desmond Ridder
Age: 22 HT: 6’3 WT: 207 College: Cincinnati Draft: RD3 Pick 74
Contract: 4 years / $1,340,741 per year (60th at position) – Expires 2026
Desmond Ridder was a four-year starter at the University of Cincinnati and led the Bearcats to the College Football Playoff before losing to Alabama last season. He finished with 3,334 yards passing for 30 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions, while completing 65% of his passes during his senior campaign. As a runner, he compiled over 2,000 yards and 28 touchdowns over his four years. If the Falcons start the season slow and Mariota struggles to move this offense, it won’t take long for Arthur Smith to go to his rookie to see if he can be the future of this franchise.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 186 Attempts, 59.1% Comp Rate, 1,294 Yards (7.0 YPA), 7 Touchdowns (3.7%)
Rushing: 21 Attempts, 4.7 YPC, 99 Yards, 1 Touchdown
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#84 Cordarrelle Patterson
Age: 31 HT: 6’2 WT: 220 College: Tennessee Draft: RD1 Pick 29
Contract: 2 years / $5,250,000 per year (18th at position) – Expires 2024
It’s not often you get to see a player have a breakout year at the ripe age of 30 years young. But that’s exactly what Cordarrelle Patterson did as a dual threat player in this offense last season. Patterson has always been used as a runner and pass-catcher, but it was his talents as a kick returner that garnered him the most attention. He has 257 kickoff returns for 7,552 yards and eight touchdowns including an NFL record, 109-yard return in his rookie season. He has 11,840 all-purpose yards over his nine-year career. As a runner in this offense, he finished with 153 carries for 618 yards and six touchdowns to go along with 52 receptions for 548 yards and five more scores as a pass-catcher. His 1,166 yards from scrimmage beat his previous career-high by 539 yards, which occurred during his rookie season in 2013. We can expect Patterson to continue to be used as a dual threat player, but with the addition of Tyler Allgeier and Damien Williams I wouldn’t be surprised to see the carries diminish a little bit in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 69 Targets, 48 Receptions, 418 yards (8.7 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
Rushing: 33% Rush Share, 137 Attempts, 588 Yards (4.3 YPC), 5 Touchdowns
#25 Tyler Allgeier
Age: 22 HT: 5’11 WT: 220 College: BYU Draft: RD5 Pick 151
Contract: 4 years / $998,472 per year (97th at position) – Expires 2026
Tyler Allgeier spent four years with the BYU Cougars and amassed over 3,336 scrimmage yards and 37 touchdowns. In his final season in 2021, he ran for more than 1,600 yards and scored 23 times. He also contributed 28 receptions for 199 yards as a pass-catcher showing he can be relevant in the passing game as well. He’s a hard-nosed runner that excels between the tackles but lacks the speed to be a homerun hitter. Allgeier will specialize in short yardage and goal line situations early on, but I fully expect to see him earn more touches as the season goes on. He fits the type of runner that Arthur Smith wants as a gap scheme bruising back that plays with violence.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 4% Target Share, 23 Targets, 15 Receptions, 112 yards (7.5 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 33% Rush Share, 137 Attempts, 547 Yards (4.0 YPC), 4 Touchdowns
WR Room
#5 Drake London
Age: 21 HT: 6’4 WT: 213 College: USC Draft: RD1 Pick 8
Contract: 4 years / $5,383,618 per year (45th at position) – Expires 2026 – 5th year option available
Drake London finished his career at USC with 160 grabs for 2,153 yards and 15 touchdowns. In his senior season he took his game to another level with 88 grabs for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns. He broke out as a true freshman while competing for touches with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., and Velus Jones. London can play both inside and outside and excels at the catch point. He has the size and length to be dangerous in the intermediate to deep parts of the field. He lacks top end speed and the ability to make people miss in the open field, but when paired with Kyle Pitts this offense could be fun over the next several years. He will be the second option in this offense behind Kyle Pitts, but with very little competition at the wide receiver position, London should lead this position group in his rookie season. Yes, I know Kyle Pitts is really a wide receiver, but until they change his eligibility as a tight end, my statement is accurate.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 20% Target Share, 114 Targets, 69 Receptions, 933 Yards (13.5 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
“You could say year three is a prove-it year for Mr. Edwards”
#89 Bryan Edwards
Age: 23 HT: 6’3 WT: 215 College: South Carolina Draft: RD3 Pick 81
Contract: 2 years / $1,156,645 per year (137th at position) – Expires 2024
Bryan Edwards struggled in his rookie season after being selected in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Las Vegas Raiders. He finished that season with just 11 receptions for 193 yards and a single touchdown. In his sophomore campaign, he showed improvement overall, but especially in the vertical passing game. He would finish with 34 receptions for 571 yards and three scores. In the offseason, he was traded to the Atlanta Falcons for a bag of peanuts. He gets new life in Atlanta, but let’s see if he can continue to improve his craft. The reality is that if Calvin Ridley does return to football in 2023, Edwards may be the odd man out with Kyle Pitts and Drake London locked in long term with the Falcons. You could say year three is a prove-it year for Mr. Edwards.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 11% Target Share, 63 Targets, 38 Receptions, 528 Yards (13.9 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
TE Room
#8 Kyle Pitts
Age: 21 HT: 6’6 WT: 246 College: Florida Draft: RD1 Pick 4
Contract: 3 years / $8,227,624 per year (13th at position) – Expires 2025 – 5th year option available
Kyle Pitts was the best tight end prospect in the history of the NFL. He was selected as the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft so that tells you all you need to know about his prospect profile. He was awarded the John Mackey award as the nation’s best tight end after his final season at the University of Florida. He finished his rookie season with 110 targets, 68 receptions, 1,026 yards, and one touchdown. He was just the second tight end to break 1,000 yards receiving in his rookie season. He finished in the top five in several key metrics including targets, air yards (1,110), target depth (10.1), deep targets (12), yards per route run (2.20), and yards per reception (15.1). He’s the first tight end off your board in any format. Yes, even before Kelce with Tyreek Hill in Miami.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 23% Target Share, 132 Targets, 82 Receptions, 1,166 Yards (14.2 YPR), 8 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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