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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part five of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the NFC North to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
Green Bay Packers
Stud: Aaron Jones
The path is there for a top-5 season for Aaron Jones. In games without Davante Adams over the last few seasons, Jones has averaged an additional eight fantasy points per game. That’s because he’s used a lot more in the passing game when Adams is not available. Even with Adams in the lineup, Jones was still top-10 in targets and target share among running backs last year. I understand A.J Dillon is there, but he may actually help Jones stay healthy and fresh by taking those in between the tackles, hard, grinder carries. It’s not like they have much to work with for pass catchers so I expect Jones will get a ton of targets and still hover around 200 carries.
Dud: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers lost Davante Adams who leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns going back to 2018. They haven’t exactly replaced him with studs—Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Sammy Watkins. This is not a high volume passing offense because they play so slow. He’s going to be out-scored by the duo-threat quarterbacks as well as the high-end pocket passers. I’m even ranking Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr ahead of him.
Value: Allen Lazard
While I’m lower than most on Aaron Rodgers this year, it’s still Aaron Rodgers. Allen Lazard is the locked-in WR1 in that offense with established chemistry with Rodgers even before this season. The depth chart is lacking in talent so Lazard is a good bet to lead the Packers in targets. He’s going to get plenty of red zone looks as well. He was already top-20 in red zone targets while playing a limited role in 2021. Double-digit touchdowns is certainly in his range of outcomes.
Detroit Lions
Stud: D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift has the profile of a league-winning running back. He’s finished as RB16 and RB10 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. That was while playing on a bottom of the league offense. The Lions have upgraded the offense in 2022 which will improve efficiency, create more opportunities, and red zone trips. Either way, Swift will continue to rely on his elite traits as a pass-catcher to rack up the fantasy points. In 2021, Swift was second among all running backs with an 18.4-percent target share. That resulted in 78 targets (six per game) which was fourth-most. Remember, that was in 13 games (12 if we don’t count leaving week 12 with an injury and a 20% snap share). He was fifth in number of routes run (297; 23/game) and top-12 in weighted opportunities (PlayerProfiler.com).
We all know his receiving talent at this point. His biggest critics tend to go after his skills as a runner. To them I would point to metrics like yards created per touch in which he ranked No.1. Or breakaway run rate, and evaded tackles per touch. He ranked top-15 in each. Swift has a chance to take 210-220 carries (his 2022 pace was 204) with 100 targets (2022 pace of 102). Topped with some additional red zone work in an improved offense and the fantasy production will be through the roof. I’m happily taking him in the middle of the second round with that upside.
Dud: TJ Hockenson
I love TJ Hockenson but I’m not comfortable with drafting him ahead of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. But that’s where he’s going in most drafts.
Value: DJ Chark
DJ Chark is an athletic freak with a 1,000-yard, eight touchdown season on his résumé. That’s right. He missed 13 games last year because of injuries but in 2019 he caught 73 balls for 1,008 yards and finished as the WR19 in fantasy points per game. I get that his quarterback is Jared Goff, but the Lions finally have a healthy offensive line (one of the best units in football) which is going to give him more time to stand in and find a speedster like Chark down the field while Amon-ra St. Brown continues to be the underneath possession guy. Sure, Jameson Williams was drafted in the first round to be that downfield threat, but he’s still recovering from an ACL injury and will likely miss a good chunk of the season. Even when he’s back, it’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver coming off that severe of an injury, having no offseason or training camp work with the offense, is going to step into a significant role upon return. That means it’s Chark’s job to lose.
Minnesota Vikings
Stud: Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson is already a proven stud but he could go absolutely nuclear in 2022. The Vikings have made it perfectly clear that they intend on being a pass-heavy offense. They also have one of the more consolidated offenses for fantasy. It’s Jefferson, an aging Adam Thielen, with a little bit of KJ Osborn, and an already injured Irv Smith. Jefferson is my WR1.
Dud: Adam Thielen
Speaking of Adam Thielen, he’s getting older (32) and has been battling injuries for much of the last few seasons. With that said, I actually like Thielen a bit this year. He’s flying under the radar and obviously I have high expectations for this passing offense. He’s really the dud here for a lack of better options.
Value: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins has been a top-12 quarterback in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons. He’s thrown for at least 30 touchdowns in three of the last four. The Vikings replaced old man Mike Zimmer with a former quarterback and Rams offensive coordinator. This is going to be a pass-happy offense with enough weapons to allow Cousins to thrive. Cousins has always been underratedly efficient with a knack for pushing the ball down the field. To me, he’s the discount version of Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow.
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Chicago Bears
Stud: Darnell Mooney
There are literally no other weapons in the Bears passing offense outside of Cole Kmet. Mooney does an excellent job of separating from coverage and making plays down the field. He’ll be the team’s go-to for splash plays while also commanding a heavy target volume.
Dud: David Montgomery
David Montgomery is in one of the worst situations of any starting running back. The Bears could legitimately score the fewest points in the league. They’re going to be slow, inefficient, with fewer possessions, plays, and red zone trips. With Justin Fields at quarterback things may be even worse for Montgomery. Fields’ athleticism and lack of polish as a pocket-passer (nevermind the lack of weapons), make him more apt to call his own number. That will be especially detrimental to Montgomery on the rare occasion the Bears are in the red zone.
Montgomery doesn’t have the receiving profile to even make up for it, nor the athletic traits to create chunk plays and breakaway runs on his own. He was 31st in evaded tackles per touch in 2021, 42nd in yards created per touch, and 37th in breakaway run rate (PlayerProfiler.com). If you want to draft him in the middle rounds because he’s going to get 20 touches per game, fine. I get it. But just know the efficiency and ceiling won’t be there. And who’s to say the new coaching staff doesn’t come in and decide to give Khalil Herbert a few more touches per game?
Value: Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet is a screaming touchdown regression candidate (in a good way!) after scoring zero times in 2021. That was despite finishing eighth in targets (93) among tight ends and top-15 in red zone targets (12). There is no target competition in the Bears offense outside of Darnell Mooney so the target volume will be there.
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