#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of the Christian McCaffrey Foundation, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of fantasy football game-breaker Christian McCaffrey
The Christian McCaffrey Foundation serves as a catalyst for the community and country by supporting those who sacrifice daily for the benefit of many. We show up for our servicemen and women for standing at the front of the most critical challenges of our time.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: NFC South
- 2021 Finish: 5-12
- Divisional Record: 2-4
- 2022 Projected Finish: 7-10
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 14th
Carolina Panthers Offense
Play Caller: Ben McAdoo
Ben McAdoo’s offense leaves a lot to be desired in terms of creating confusion for opposing defenses at the NFL level. He doesn’t use a lot of window dressing when it comes to pre-snap motion, formations, and odd personnel groupings to mix things up. He wants to do the basics better than everybody else and simplify reads for his quarterback by using short to intermediate concepts that allow his playmakers to create yards after the catch. It’s also worth noting that McAdoo tends to rely more on the passing game than the run game.
The success of this offense will depend on three critical variables coming together. First and foremost, Christian McCaffrey must stay healthy and be the player he’s been through his first five years in the NFL. Make no mistake, this offense goes as Christian McCaffrey goes. The Panthers did bring in D’onta Foreman who played well when Derrick Henry missed nine games with the Tennessee Titans last season. The other option is Chuba Hubbard, who did not look efficient when McCaffrey missed 10 games last season.
The second variable is the ability to get D.J. Moore the ball with regularity to allow his athletic ability to play a key role each week. The one thing Moore has been missing throughout his first four years in the NFL, is consistent quarterback play in the passing game. He’s never had more than four touchdowns in a season, which is very odd when you consider he’s had 301 grabs for 4,313 yards in just four years. There is a huge drop off in this offense outside of D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.
The final variable is Baker Mayfield. The former number one overall pick was run out of town by the Cleveland Browns, so you can bet he’s highly motivated and ready to revive his career with the Carolina Panthers. Mayfield played through a shoulder labrum tear and a Grade 1 knee sprain last season because he wanted to be there for his teammates. It simply wasn’t enough to keep his job. I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield because who doesn’t like a good revenge story.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 304 (29th)
- Total Yards: 5,081 (30th)
- Total Plays: 1,106 (10th)
- Yards Per Play: 4.6 (32nd)
- 1st Downs: 322 (25th), Passing 174 (26th), Rushing 118 (14th)
- Scoring Rate: 29.2% (29th)
- Turnover Rate: 14.9% (29th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 65 (10th)
- Pace of Play: 29.1 Seconds Per Play (17th)
- Passing Ratio: 59% (11th)
- Neutral Game Script: 53% (23rd)
- RPO: 142 Snaps – 39.4% Success Rate
- Motion: 478 Plays – 30.1% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 140 Plays – 40.7% Success Rate
- Play Action: 155 Plays – 39.4% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 355 Targets (14th)
RBs: 140 Targets (3rd)
TEs: 80 Targets (31st)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 729 Plays
OVR: 66% (43% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 68% (38% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 32% (54% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 200 Plays
OVR: 18% (44% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 49% (40% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 51% (47% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #79 Ikem Ekwonu
Age: 21 HT: 6’4 WT: 320 College: NC State Draft: RD1 Pick 6
OVR PFF: 91.6 Pass: 78.3 Run: 93.8 (819 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $6,892,013 per year (22nd at position) – Expires 2026
LG: #73 Michael Jordan
Age: 24 HT: 6’6 WT: 315 College: Ohio State Draft: RD4 Pick 136
OVR PFF: 50.7 Pass: 49.0 Run: 55.4 (703 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $907,500 per year (61st at position) – Expires 2023
C: #60 Pat Elflein
Age: 28 HT: 6’3 WT: 305 College: OSU Draft: RD3 Pick 70
OVR PFF: 50.1 Pass: 42.0 Run: 52.2 (534 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,500,000 per year (12th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #63 Austin Corbett
Age: 26 HT: 6’4 WT: 305 College: Nevada Draft: RD2 Pick 33
OVR PFF: 688 Pass: 63.8 Run: 67.4 (1,081 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $8,750,000 per year (7th at position) – Expires 2025
RT: #72 Taylor Moton
Age: 28 HT: 6’5 WT: 325 College: Western Michigan Draft: RD2 Pick 64
OVR PFF: 77.5 Pass: 79.4 Run: 70.7 (1,149 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $17,000,000 per year (5th at position) – Expires 2026
“Mayfield looks locked and ready to prove a lot of the naysayers wrong in 2022”
QB Room
#6 Baker Mayfield
Age: 27 HT: 6’1 WT: 215 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD1 Pick 1
Contract: 1 year / $15,358,000 per year (17th at position) – Expires 2023
I could talk for days about my thoughts on the way Baker Mayfield was treated by the Cleveland Browns organization. I will choose to focus on what’s transpired on the field and Mayfield’s potential future with the Panthers. Last season was not a good one for Baker Mayfield, who elected to play through a torn labrum on his non-throwing shoulder instead of opting for surgery right away. He would miss three games and did finally opt for surgery once the Browns were mathematically eliminated from the playoff race. Mayfield enjoyed his best season in 2020, when he led the Browns to an 11-5 record with 3,563 yards passing and 26 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. Mayfield looks locked and ready to prove a lot of the naysayers wrong in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 571 Attempts, 62.2% Comp Rate, 3,834 Yards (6.7 YPA), 25 Touchdowns (4.4%)
Rushing: 49 Attempts, 3.5 YPC, 173 Yards, 1 Touchdown
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#22 Christian McCaffrey
Age: 26 HT: 5’11WT: 205 College: Stanford Draft: RD1 Pick 8
Contract: 4 years / $16,015,853 per year (1st at position) – Expires 2026
Christian McCaffrey is the most explosive running back in the NFL when he’s healthy. He didn’t miss a single game through his first three years in the league, but he’s missed 23 games in the last two years due to multiple injuries. In 2019, his last full season, he ran for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns while also snagging 116 receptions for another 1,005 yards and four more scores. He finished that season with a total of 403 touches for 2,392 yards and 19 touchdowns with an average of 5.9 yards per touch. I don’t know that we will ever see that level of production again from CMC, but I do think he can come close if he can play a full 17-game schedule. This offense will continue to run through McCaffrey as long as he can take the field.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 18% Target Share, 103 Targets, 87 Receptions, 734 yards (8.4 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
Rushing: 52% Rush Share, 233 Attempts, 1,050 Yards (4.5 YPC), 8 Touchdowns
WR Room
#2 D.J. Moore
Age: 25 HT: 6’0 WT: 210 College: Maryland Draft: RD1 Pick 24
Contract: 4 years / $20,628,000 per year (10th at position) – Expires 2026
D.J. Moore set career highs last season with 163 targets and 93 receptions. It was his third straight season with over 118 targets and 1,000 yards receiving in just 4 years in the NFL. He now gets, what should be, an upgrade at the quarterback position. The only knock on D.J. Moore has been his inability to find the endzone. He has 301 career receptions with just 14 touchdowns. That will have to change if he ever wants to be considered an elite receiver in the NFL. You can’t be considered an alpha if you don’t consistently find the endzone and earn red zone targets.
I do expect him to set a new career high with touchdown receptions in 2022, so there’s that.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 23% Target Share, 131 Targets, 85 Receptions, 1,161 Yards (13.7 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
“It’s crazy to think an NFL wide receiver could be targeted 110 times and only come up with 53 receptions”
#3 Robbie Anderson
Age: 29 HT: 6’3 WT: 190 College: Temple Draft: UDFA
Contract: 2 years / $14,750,000 per year (27th at position) – Expires 2024
Robbie Anderson was affected more than anybody by inefficient quarterback play in 2021. He struggled to find chemistry with Darnold, Cam Newton, and P.J. Walker, who all started games for the Panthers last season. Anderson had career lows in catch rate (48.2%), yards per game (30.5), routes per game (3.1), yards per target (4.7), and yards per reception (9.8). It’s crazy to think an NFL wide receiver could be targeted 110 times and only come up with 53 receptions. In comparison, he finished the 2020 season with 136 targets, 95 receptions, and 1,096 yards. The talent is there so I expect a slight uptick in production in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 19% Target Share, 109 Targets, 60 Receptions, 675 Yards (11.3 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
#88 Terrace Marshall Jr.
Age: 22 HT: 6’2 WT: 200 College: LSU Draft: RD2 Pick 59
Contract: 3 years / $1,432,371 per year (109th at position) – Expires 2025
Terrace Marshall Jr. appears to be the front-runner for the WR3 role in this offense, but Rashard Higgins is starting to turn some heads as well. Assuming it is Marshall, he has a lot to prove after an abysmal rookie season in 2021. The highly touted receiver out of LSU finished with just 30 targets, 17 receptions, 138 yards, and no scores. It’s worth noting that Marshall was working through a foot injury during his rookie season. Marshall will look to show why he was drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft after compiling 23 touchdowns over his last two years at LSU.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 51 Targets, 31 Receptions, 327 Yards (10.5 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
TE Room
#82 Tommy Tremble
Age: 22 HT: 6’4 WT: 250 College: Notre Dame Draft: RD3 Pick 83
Contract: 3 years / $1,231,609 per year (56th at position) – Expires 2025
Something is going to have to give for Tommy Tremble in his second season in the NFL. He will now be catching passes from Baker Mayfield, who consistently shows a trend for targeting tight ends throughout his college and NFL career. However, the Panthers only targeted the tight end position 80 times last season, which ranked 31st in the NFL. Tremble has proved to be productive in the run game as in line tight end, but only brought in 20 receptions for 180 yards and one touchdown last season in the passing game. He only had a 37.9% route participation and four red zone targets last season.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 7% Target Share, 40 Targets, 28 Receptions, 266 Yards (9.5 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
#PROJECT32 MENU
Draft With Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100!
