Hunter Renfrow Target Separation | Fantasy Football

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Training camps are in full swing and home league drafts are so close you can almost taste the wings, beer, and tears of your league mates after drafting the ultimate team. I’m here to help in that endeavor (the tears part, not the wings or beer) with stats that every fantasy footballer needs to know going into the 2022 season. Let’s check out the AFC West this week.

Note: Most of these stats can be found at PFF and PlayerProfiler.com

AFC West

Broncos

32.8 Percent The juke rate for Javonte Williams in 2021 which ranked 8^th among running backs. Nathaniel Hackett is bringing an outside zone run scheme to the Broncos and this fits Williams’ skill set perfectly with his blend of power and elusiveness. Even with a 55/45 split with Melvin Gordon, Williams could smash in a higher-powered offense. He has legit top-3 upside.
55 Percent This is the success rate for Melvin Gordon, 1 percent higher than Javonte Willams in 2021. Success rate represents a player’s consistency, which means Williams was getting the burst plays and Gordon was a little more consistent. Gordon is still very valuable to this team and could be a league winner if Williams gets hurt. He’s an easy selection at RB39 right now.
66.6 Percent The amount of time Jerry Jeudy lined up out wide in 2020. There was a ton of buzz coming into 2022 that Jeudy was the slot receiver with Tim Patrick lined up outside, and he would come off the field in two-receiver sets. The Patrick injury assures he’ll be there in these sets and that the passing game will be funneled through Sutton and Jeudy. Russell Wilson can make Sutton and Jeudy worthy of their ADP.
3 Percent This is, on average, what receivers lose on their success rate versus man coverage the year following an ACL tear (courtesy of the great Matt Harmon). Courtland Sutton was in such a year in 2021 and struggled to separate but should be fully healthy and looking like his 2019 self (or better) with Russell Wilson.
.57 This is the fantasy points per dropback for Russell Wilson in 2021 which ranked seventh among QBs. Wilson came back from a devastating finger injury in record time (after rehabbing for “19-20 hours a day”) to disappoint in the first few games back. How would he have finished if playing every play for the Broncos? With .57 points per dropback he would’ve been QB6…..in a “disappointing” season. Let’s ride.

Kansas City Chiefs

66.0 The elusiveness rating PFF gave Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020, the season he was NOT recovering from gallbladder surgery and weighing 160 pounds. This was one spot above Alvin Kamara and good for 14^th among running backs. He’s not too explosive as a runner but he can be efficient given his shiftiness. Based on camp reports it seems like the Chiefs want to let him show this off in 2022.
4.42 This is the NCAA career yards per route run on the six NFL staple routes (hitch, out, crossing, slant, go, and in routes) for Skyy Moore which ranked first out of all receivers in the class. Moore has the skill set to become the Deebo Samuel light for Kansas City in 2022.

Source: Dwain McFarland of PFF

125 The amount of targets Juju Smith-Schuster earned in 2020, his last fully healthy year, and ranked 13^th out of all receivers. In PPR leagues he finished as the WR16 when he was playing second fiddle to Diontae Johnson and had an over-the-hill Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball. He should blow by that as the WR1 in KC with Mahomes throwing him the ball.
83.1 Percent The snap share for Travis Kelce in 2021, down from his high of 96.5 percent in 2018 and steadily decreasing. If this drops below 80 percent in 2022 it will be very tough to have a top-3 season and will assuredly keep him from paying off his first-round draft capital.
7.6 The average depth of target for Patrick Mahomes last year which ranked 31^st among QBs. Defenses figured out the best way to defend against Mahomes was to use a 2-high shell to take away the deep ball and force him to throw the shorter passes to move the chains. The way to beat this defense is to run the ball well which the Chiefs seem to want to try in 2022. Mahomes is probably the best QB in the NFL, but he won’t be top 4 in fantasy this year.

Las Vegas Raiders

59.7 The run blocking rating on all of Josh Jacobs’ runs in 2021 which ranked 34^th among running backs. He had a true yards per carry (discounts long runs to measure consistency) of 3.8 which ranked 54^th, and the offensive line is somehow even worse this year as seen by the 29^th ranking given by PFF. Jacobs isn’t good enough to create yards where there are none, and this will be a gross committee in Vegas.
11 The number of games the Raiders are in that is over/under at least 48 points in 2022. With a bad run-blocking offensive line, high-scoring games, and the newly acquired Davante Adams, Derek Carr is poised to smash this year.
689 The number of passing yards Derek Carr had in 2021 over and above Aaron Rodgers. Analysts have stated that we need to fade Davante Adams because of the talent disparity between Carr and Rodgers. He doesn’t need to be as good…..they’re a much more pass-oriented team with more targets to go around. The dip in ADP for Adams is a great time to snatch him in drafts.
11 The amount of games Waller played last year after spraining his ankle twice and straining an IT band later in the year. While playing through injury he still finished as TE6 in points per game. He also finished third in expected fantasy points per game. Feel good taking him at a discount at TE4.
2.11 The target separation versus man coverage for Hunter Renfrow in 2021 which ranked ninth among receivers. He is an elite route runner in the slot and will still have plenty of targets with the aforementioned high scoring games the Raiders will have all season. Can you name another receiver on the Raiders this year that hasn’t been mentioned? You don’t need to because 70+ percent of the targets will be funneled through these three superstars.

Los Angeles Chargers

2 This is the fantasy rank among receivers for Mike Williams after week 5 in 2021. What happened in week 5? He injured his knee but decided to play through it all year. The decline of Keenan Allen has already happened, and Mike Williams was well on his way to becoming the WR1 for the Chargers. He’s still at a discount going behind Allen in drafts and outside the top 12.
5 The number of years in a row that Keenan Allen’s yards per route run have dropped, and that has coincided with a drop in PFF grade from 90.5 to 77.5 in 2021. Allen is a fine pick in PPR leagues, but the high-value targets will be going to Mike Williams in 2022.
63 The amount of redzone touches the Chargers gave Austin Ekeler which was second among running backs. This was the first year Ekeler was given the goal line role and he made sure they won’t take it back as he ran for 12 touchdowns. Given the reports that Isaiah Spiller and Josh Kelley are fighting for backup duties, it seems Ekeler is the only running back the coaches trust.
4.68 The 40-yard dash time for Justin Herbert coming out of Oregon which is in the 82^nd percentile for QBs. Everyone knows the Chargers have a great offensive environment for Herbert to flourish as a passer but to truly unlock his potential he needs to use his underrated speed and 6’6″ manpower. He ran for 302 yards last year, 68 more yards than 2020. The Chargers will look to take more advantage of his legs in 2022 and he’ll dethrone Josh Allen as QB1.
137 The amount of targets Justin Herbert fed his tight ends in 2021. Jared Cook, a 34-year-old journeyman, turned 83 of those targets into a TE15 finish. Gerald Everett is the new tight end for the Chargers, an elite athlete who should earn more targets in this offense. He is currently going as the TE18. This is what we call in the industry a “value.”