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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part one of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the AFC West to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
Los Angeles Chargers
Stud: Mike Williams
Mike Williams is a no-brainer pick in the fourth round. We’re talking about a featured wide receiver in one of the top passing offenses in the league. He’s coming off career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. That’s partly because a new coaching staff came in last year who actually knows how to use him. He was seeing more looks close to the line of scrimmage which made his game more efficient all the way around. Williams was still getting work down the field, though. He was top-12 in deep targets. Justin Herbert often looked for Williams when the team got to the red zone as Williams finished the season eighth among wide receivers in red zone targets. He’s a perfect skill set match with Herbert and an excellent compliment to Keenan Allen’s game. Don’t over think this one, just draft Mike Williams.
Dud: Gerald Everett
This is a tough offense to find a dud. I’m not sure Gerald Everett even qualifies given his low ADP. However, there’s a chance he can’t capture the full TE1 role in Los Angeles thanks to the lingering Donald Parham in the background.
Value: Josh Palmer
Josh quietly started to come on late in his rookie season. Over the last five weeks, he earned a 14-percent target share while averaging 27 routes per game. Palmer scored double-digit fantasy points in three of those contests with finishes of WR16, WR21, and WR32. He’ll look to build on that in 2022 as he fights to secure the full-time WR3 role in camp. That puts Palmer in excellent position to be a productive fantasy asset as the WR3 in one of the most explosive pass offenses in the league. Sure, he’ll work behind Allen and Williams, but the team doesn’t have an established tight end, nor much wide receiver competition behind him. And if anything were to happen to either of the top-2 wideouts, you now have the WR2 in the Justin Herbert offense.
Denver Broncos
Stud: Courtland Sutton
It’s well documented that I’m all-in on Courtland Sutton this year. If he can top 1,100 yards with a combination of Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen at quarterback, imagine what he’ll do in the D.K. Metcalf role for new quarterback Russell Wilson. Even last year coming off the ACL injury, Sutton led the team in targets and receiving yards. The peripheral numbers were encouraging, too. He finished the season eighth in air yards (1,534), fifth in unrealized air yards, second in average target distance (15.7), and sixth in deep targets (29) (PlayerProfiler.com). Now with some quality quarterback play, Sutton can become one of the more productive receivers in the league.
Dud: Javonte Williams
Don’t get me wrong, I love Javonte Williams. However, we can’t just wish him into a bellcow role. I was as upset as anyone when the team brought back Melvin Gordon, but we have to accept it and not pretend that it didn’t happen. As long as Gordon is there, Williams will be unable to return value at his second round ADP. This was a 50/50 split last year. Even if Williams takes a bit more out of that pie, it’s unlikely to be enough to warrant his current cost in drafts.
Value: Albert Okwuegbunam
Albert Okwuegbunam is my favorite breakout candidate at tight end this year. The road to fantasy production has been paved. From the departure of Noah Fant, the loss of Tim Patrick to an ACL, to the upgrade at quarterback. Albert O is an athletic freak at 6-6, 258-pounds and 4.48 speed. Even while playing behind Fant last year, Okwuegbunam finished as a fantasy TE1 twice and was inside the top-25 another eight times. His rate of targets per route run was 29.9-percent. He’s a beast after the catch, too. In limited opportunities, he still ranked top-15 among tight ends with 255 yards after the catch.
Now he gets to play with Russell Wilson at quarterback in an offense that projects to be among the highest scoring in the league. Okwuegbunam will present a fantastic weapon down the seams, underneath, and in the red zone for his new quarterback. He’ll be the third option in the passing game behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. I find it hard to imagine that he doesn’t finish as a top-10 scorer.
Las Vegas Raiders
Stud: Davante Adams
Davante Adams may not be the WR1 in fantasy anymore, but he’s still in the conversation for top-5. The quarterback change from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr shouldn’t impede him from producing elite numbers. I’m still drafting him at the back-end of round one with confidence.
Dud: Hunter Renfrow
Hunter Renfrow took full advantage of the situation in Vegas last year. It was an offense void of talent while Darren Waller battled injuries and after Henry Ruggs was kicked off the team. Even still, he was out-produced by Zay Jones down the stretch. A lot of Renfrow’s fantasy production came on the back of his nine touchdowns while he was sixth among all wide receivers in red zone targets. That’s not going to happen again with the return of a healthy Waller and the addition of Davante Adams. Renfrow will still be productive and have a solid season, but we can’t expect over 103 receptions, 1,038 yards, and nine touchdowns again. We’re looking at more like 75 catches for 800 yards.
Value: Derek Carr
Derek Carr got a massive weapons upgrade with the trade for his former college teammate Davante Adams. Getting to throw to arguably the best wide receiver in football will absolutely help Carr be more productive in fantasy football. 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns seems like a lock.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
Kansas City Chiefs
Stud: Travis Kelce
It’s Travis Kelce. We already know he’s a stud. And now he’s no longer competing with Tyreek Hill for targets.
Dud: Skyy Moore
I love Skyy Moore. I’ll take him in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts all day long. However, he’s being drafted a bit too high in seasonal leagues for a rookie coming out of Western Michigan. He may start the season as the fourth option in the passing game. Even with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that’s tough to overcome.
Value: Juju Smith-Schuster
Juju Smith-Schuster just got a massive quarterback upgrade. Not only that, the Chiefs are No.1 in vacated targets (360) and No.4 in vacated air yards (2,753) (PlayerProfiler.com). He’ll likely finish second on the team in targets. In a Patrick Mahomes offense? Why wouldn’t you want that guy on your fantasy team?
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