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It’s truly the most wonderful time of the year. From this week on, we have meaningful football games from now thru the middle of February. The next six months, nearly every day of the week, there will be football in some capacity. Simply beautiful.
Now, Week 0 is by no means a sexy slate. It’s like the third best cold appetizer at a nice restaurant: it’s not why you walk in the door, but you’ll gladly consume. There are 11 total games, but only seven between FBS schools. The highlight of the slate is a Big Ten game played in Dublin between Northwestern and Nebraska, whom both went 3-9 in 2021. Not too exciting. Nonetheless, the offseason is finally concluding, and here are some Week 0 College Football bets.
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Wyoming vs. Illinois (ILL -11, O/U 44)
Illinois -11 (-115)
There are high hopes the Fighting Illini could make their first bowl since 2019. They start the 2022 campaign against Wyoming, who has had strong showings the past few seasons. However, Wyoming lost significant pieces this offseason, losing their quarterback, lead running back and receiver to the transfer portal. Wyoming returns just five starters total, three on offense and two on defense. The Wyoming defense ranked 98th in rushing yards allowed per game (180.6 YPG).
The strength of Illinois’s team is the ground game, as they return 1,000 yard rusher Chase Brown along with their second and third leading rushers. Over his 13 years as a head coach, Illinois’s Bret Bielema has relied heavily on the run; he has a pass/run split of 38.4%/61.6% in that span. I believe the Illinois ground game in Bielema’s second season will be too much for Wyoming to start the season. Take the Illini in the Week 0 opener.
UCONN vs. Utah State (USU -26.5, O/U 59.5)
Utah State -26.5 (-110)
This is the largest spread for Week 0, yet I’m comfortable laying this number. Last season, UCONN was a four-score underdog in seven contests; while they did go 4-3 ATS in those games, six of the seven resulted in losses of at least 28 points. UCONN returns eight starters on an offense that ranked 129th of 130 FBS teams in scoring (15.6 PPG) and 128th in total yards (265 YPG) in 2021.
Utah State ranked 15th in passing a season ago while returning their offensive line and quarterback Logan Bonner. Top receiver Justin McGriff is back with the team welcomes transfer portal arrivals from Maryland and Alabama to complete their core.
The Aggies return their entire coaching staff from a Mountain West championship. Meanwhile, Jim Mora takes over a program that is 10-50 in their last five seasons. I don’t expect Mora to turn around a program overnight. It will be a slow process – if it happens at all – and should not be expected against the former Mountain West champs. Utah State rolls easily in a Week 0 route as they cover the number.
Charlotte vs. Florida Atlantic (FAU -7.5; O/U 60.5)
Under 60.5 (-110)
This number is trending in the opposite direction, but I’m taking the under in this Conference-USA kickoff. C-USA games in Boca Raton are not the same with Willie Taggart compared to Lane Kiffin. In the seven home conference games with Taggert, FAU is averaging just 24.4 PPG. That number includes a 58 outburst against a bottom-tiered FIU team a season ago. The under is 9-5 over the last two seasons when FAU is a favorite, and 9-5 in C-USA games. The under moves to 5-2 when they are home conference games.
While Charlotte’s defense was a C-USA worst (34 PPG), they return 75% of their production from a season ago. They welcome new defensive coordinator Greg Brown with NFL and Power Five experience in hopes to revitalize this defense. I think both teams will be relatively contained in the opener with the edge going to Florida Atlantic in the end. But the under is my play in this Week 0 C-USA matchup.
Agree? Disagree? What’s your favorite play? Let’s chat! Follow me on Twitter @DrewRoberts_ to discuss more football.
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