#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Northside Achievement Zone, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of dynasty #1 Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson
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- Division: NFC North
- 2021 Finish: 8-9
- Divisional Record: 4-2
- 2022 Projected Finish: 10-7
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 16th
Minnesota Vikings Offense
Play Caller: Kevin O’Connell
Kevin O’Connell, fresh off a Super Bowl victory as the Offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, is now the Head Coach of the Minnesota Vikings. O’Connell played a pivotal role in getting Matthew Stafford caught up to speed with the Rams’ offense and he’s looking to duplicate that with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. There have been rave reviews coming out of the Vikings camp about how good this offense could be in 2022. Even Justin Jefferson, their all-everything wide receiver, has been very open about the differences between this offense and what they did under former head coach, Mike Zimmer. He even made a comment about how he understands how Cooper Kupp was always so open. If the Rams’ offense from last season is any indication of what it could be like for the Vikings this season, then we should expect to see more pre-snap motion and play-action. I would expect a heavy dose of 11 personnel that uses more condensed and bunch formations to create free releases for the wide receivers and a zone run scheme that will feature Dalvin Cook. There is plenty of firepower in Minnesota with Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Osborn, and Cook to make things real exciting in the NFC North.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 425 (14th)
- Total Yards: 6,168 (12th)
- Total Plays: 1,083 (12th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (13th)
- 1st Downs: 332 (20th), Passing 202 (14th), Rushing 103 (22nd)
- Scoring Rate: 39.3% (15th)
- Turnover Rate: 6.6% (2nd)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 63.7 (12th)
- Pace of Play: 27.9 Seconds Per Play (10th)
- Passing Ratio: 58% (17th)
- Neutral Game Script: 58% (12th)
- RPO: 66 Snaps – 31.8% Success Rate
- Motion: 478 Plays – 30.8% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 68 Plays – 35.3% Success Rate
- Play Action: 166 Plays – 45.2% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 365 Targets (10th)
RBs: 115 Targets (12th)
TEs: 97 Targets (25th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 507 Plays
OVR: 47% (44% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 73% (44% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 27% (45% Success Rate)
21 Personnel: 199 Plays
OVR: 18% (50% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 41% (59% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 59% (44% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 139 Plays
OVR: 13% (45% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 48% (39% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 52% (50% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #71 Christian Darrisaw
Age: 23 HT: 6’5 WT: 315 College: Virginia Tech Draft: RD1 Pick 23
OVR PFF: 71.9 Pass: 63.1 Run: 77.3 (652 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $3,336,537 per year (30th at position) – Expires 2025 – 5th year option available
LG: #72 Ezra Cleveland
Age: 24 HT: 6’6 WT: 312 College: Boise State Draft: RD2 Pick 58
OVR PFF: 68.6 Pass: 55.5 Run: 71.9 (1,140 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $1,384,304 per year (29th at position) – Expires 2024
C: #56 Garrett Bradbury
Age: 27 HT: 6’3 WT: 300 College: NC State Draft: RD1 Pick 18
OVR PFF: 60.2 Pass: 43.7 Run: 67.0 (883 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $3,220,718 per year (20th at position) – Expires 2023 – 5th year option available
RG: #73 Jesse Davis
Age: 30 HT: 6’6 WT: 318 College: Idaho Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 52.5 Pass: 51.1 Run: 51.4 (1,063 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $3,000,000 per year (20th at position) – Expires 2023
RT: #75 Brian O’Neill
Age: 26 HT: 6’7 WT: 310 College: Pitt Draft: RD2 Pick 62
OVR PFF: 73.4 Pass: 77.5 Run: 66.1 (1,140 Snaps)
Contract: 5 years / $18,500,000 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2027
“With Kevin O’Connell now in the picture and a lot of talent at the skill positions, this should be a very exciting season for Kirk Cousins”
QB Room
#8 Kirk Cousins
Age: 34 HT: 6’3 WT: 205 College: Michigan State Draft: RD4 Pick 102
Contract: 2 years / $35,000,000 per year (9th at position) – Expires 2024
Kirk Cousins feels like the most under appreciated quarterback in the NFL every year. He’s been a full-time starter for the last seven years. During that time, he’s finished six seasons with more than 4,000 yards passing and a completion percentage over 66% while throwing 205 touchdown passes. So why the lack of respect? He’s only won 59 games in 120 starts and has yet to take a team deep into the playoffs with a career record of 1-2 in such games. Last season, Cousins threw for 4,221 yards and 33 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. With Kevin O’Connell now in the picture and a lot of talent at the skill positions, this should be a very exciting season for Kirk Cousins.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 581 Attempts, 67.9% Comp Rate, 4,588 Yards (7.9 YPA), 34 Touchdowns (5.9%)
Rushing: 32 Attempts, 3.9 YPC, 125 Yards, 1 Touchdown
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#4 Dalvin Cook
Age: 27 HT: 5’10 WT: 210 College: FSU Draft: RD2 Pick 41
Contract: 4 years / $12,600,000 per year (4th at position) – Expires 2026
Dalvin Cook is set to have a monster year in this offense if he can stay healthy. Cook has missed 25 games during his five years in the NFL, but when he’s healthy, he’s electric both as a runner and a pass-catcher. In 2020, he had his best season with 312 carries for 1,557 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns, while also hauling in 44 passes for 361 yards and a touchdown in just 14 games. In 2021, his numbers dipped a bit as he played through some injuries including a dislocated shoulder and a torn labrum. Based on past performance and an uptick in scheme with O’Connell, I expect Cook to bounce back nicely in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 58 Targets, 46 Receptions, 358 yards (7.8 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 57% Rush Share, 260 Attempts, 1,222 Yards (4.7 YPC), 9 Touchdowns
#2 Alexander Mattison
Age: 24 HT: 5’11 WT: 215 College: Boise State Draft: RD3 Pick 102
Contract: 1 year / $867,795 per year (137th at position) – Expires 2023
Alexander Mattison gives you RB1 upside when he starts in place of an injured Dalvin Cook. In five such games last season, he went for 451 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns on the ground, while contributing 22 receptions for 212 yards and two touchdowns through the air. That’s 132.6 total yards and one touchdown per game. That’s the definition of a “true” handcuff. On the flip side, when Cook is healthy, Mattison does not have stand alone value. I typically don’t handcuff my own backs as I like to steal points by hand-cuffing everyone else’s backs to gain a starter vs lose production from a starter I already had. With that said, Mattison is someone I would use to handcuff Cook because of injury history and his production when asked to carry the load. It is worth noting that Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu are flashing throughout camp and early pre-season as guys that could eat into that volume if Cook does go down.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 5% Target Share, 29 Targets, 24 Receptions, 183 Yards (7.6 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 29% Rush Share, 132 Attempts, 556 Yards (4.2 YPC), 2 Touchdowns
WR Room
#18 Justin Jefferson
Age: 23 HT: 6’1 WT: 195 College: LSU Draft: RD1 Pick 22
Contract: 2 years / $3,280,702 per year (64th at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
If there is one guy that I would bet on to be the overall WR1 in 2022 not named Cooper Kupp, my money would be on Justin Jefferson. Kevin O’Connell will use Jefferson at multiple positions to create free releases that take advantage of bubbles of space in the defense. According to Reception Perception, Jefferson has a 78% success rate vs man coverage, an 85.2% success rate vs zone coverage, and 82.8% success rate vs press coverage. He finished in the 90th percentile or above in all three categories. The only other players to hit those metrics include Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, and Davante Adams since Matt Harmon started tracking receivers on Reception Perception. Jefferson finished last season ranked third in target share (29.9%), fourth in routes run (586), first in air yards (1,996), first in deep targets (34), sixth in yards per route run (2.76), and third in yards per team pass attempt (2.68). Simply put, he absolutely dominates in the passing game.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 30% Target Share, 174 Targets, 117 Receptions, 1,728 Yards (14.8 YPR), 14 Touchdowns
“he literally scores a touchdown on 11.9% of his targets”
#19 Adam Thielen
Age: 31 HT: 6’2 WT: 200 College: Minnesota St Draft: UDFA
Contract: 3 years / $14,892,353 per year (26th at position) – Expires 2025
In the last two years, Adam Thielen has converted 202 targets into 141 receptions and 24 touchdowns. That means he literally scores a touchdown on 11.9% of his targets. That’s insane efficiency. In 2021, he was targeted 15 times in the red zone and came away with 13 receptions. He enters the 2022 season at 32 years of age, but he’s the clear second option in this offense and should continue to be a top target in the money areas of the field. He’s a great value at his current ADP if he can stay healthy.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 17% Target Share, 99 Targets, 68 Receptions, 756 Yards (11.1 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
#17 K.J. Osborn
Age: 25 HT: 5’11 WT: 203 College: Miami Draft: RD5 Pick 176
Contract: 2 years / $890,693 per year (227th at position) – Expires 2024
K.J. Osborn was limited to special teams in his 2020 rookie season, where he played in just nine games. In 2021 he played in all 17 games including nine starts, and finished with 82 targets, 50 receptions, 655 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s worked his way into the WR3 role and should see plenty of opportunity in an offense that will use a lot of three wide receiver sets in 2022. It’s worth noting, that when Thielen missed some time due to injury last season, Osborn thrived in his absence.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 13% Target Share, 75 Targets, 49 Receptions, 604 Yards (12.3 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#84 Irv Smith Jr.
Age: 24 HT: 6’2 WT: 240 College: Alabama Draft: RD2 Pick 50
Contract: 1 year / $1,449,611 per year (46th at position) – Expires 2023
Irv Smith Jr. looks to have a clear path as the TE1 in this offense. He missed four games last season but finished with 30 receptions for 365 yards and two touchdowns. Smith is just 24 years old and there is very little competition on the roster for snaps. Just maybe we get to see the breakout season we’ve been waiting for in 2022. With a very good wide receiver core in Minnesota, there should be plenty of room to work underneath coverage and in the middle of the field for Smith.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 13% Target Share, 75 Targets, 55 Receptions, 595 Yards (10.8 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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