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Josh Palmer, Chargers
Josh Palmer came into the league as an early third round pick in 2021. He had a mostly quiet rookie season working behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton. He quietly started to come on late in the season, though. Over the last five weeks, Palmer earned a 14-percent target share while averaging 27 routes per game. He scored double-digit fantasy points in three of those contests with finishes of WR16, WR21, and WR32. Palmer capped it off with nine targets on 43 routes and 128 air yards in the Chargers’ dramatic season finale.
He’ll look to build on that in 2022 as he fights to secure the full-time WR3 role in camp. With only Guyton in his way, it shouldn’t be difficult and early reports from Chargers beat writers indicate Palmer already has the upper hand. That puts Palmer in excellent position to be a productive fantasy asset as the WR3 in one of the most explosive pass offenses in the league with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Sure, he’ll work behind Allen and Williams, but the team doesn’t have an established tight end, nor much wide receiver competition behind him. And if anything were to happen to either of the top-2 wideouts, you now have the WR2 in the Justin Herbert offense.
KJ Osborn, Vikings
K.J. Osborn finished as a top-24 WR five times in 2021. That’s despite limited playing time as the WR3 on an offense that ran 11-personnel at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. The good news is the Vikings replaced old man Mike Zimmer and brought in former quarterback and Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach. If O’Connell runs the Vikings offense anything like he worked with in Los Angeles, we’re going to see a lot more opportunities for Osborn. The Rams ran 11-personnel at a league-high 86-percent of the time in 2021.
That means Osborn will get more opportunities for targets in 2022 after he finished top-25 in fantasy points per target in 2021. Especially with the loss of Irv Smith to a finger last at camp this week.He’s reportedly expected back for the opener, but after missing all of last season and now all of preseason and most of training camp, it’s hard to see him jump right into a significant target share early on.
Osborn will operate primarily from the slot (40% slot rate in 2021) but he has the size and athleticism to get open at the perimeter as well. In fact, Osborn’s 4.48 speed and 73rd-percentile burst (PlayerProfiler.com) allowed him to see 16 deep targets while accumulating 863 air yards. The point is, he’s more versatile and more of a threat to pick up chunk plays than your typical slot receiver.Osborn will be productive as the third option in what I expect to be a much improved Vikings offense, at least from a fantasy perspective. We also get the upside of anything happening to Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen and Osborn suddenly being thrust into the WR2 chair in a pass-friendly offense.
Zay Jones, Jaguars
Zay Jones emerged as quite productive at the end of last season with the Raiders. He averaged 8 targets per game over the final eight weeks which included five double-digit fantasy performances. He capped it off with five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Vegas’ playoff loss to the Bengals. It was enough to land a new three-year, $24 million deal with the Jaguars that includes $14 million in guarantees. A deal like that indicates the team has a plan for him. After all, the target competition in Jacksonville isn’t exactly fierce. The projected WR1, Christian Kirk, has never had a 1,000-yard season in four years in the NFL. After that, it’s a 32-year old Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell.
Jones has a real shot at 80-plus targets in what is expected to be a much improved offense. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is projected to take a big leap in his second season especially with the coaching change to a quarterback-friendly Doug Pederson taking over for Urban Meyer. Jones is not necessarily the guy you want to grab in your home league, but in deep formats or in best ball, he has an excellent chance at significantly out-producing his ADP.
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Curtis Samuel, Commanders
Curtis Samuel has as much upside as any of the late-round wide receivers. But, there’s a reason he’s with the late-round wide receivers. Samuel’s 2021 was essentially a lost season. He battled a groin injury that started in camp and lingered throughout the season and his hamstrings were problematic as well. Even in his five “healthy” games, Samuel saw limited action. So that’s the downside—health. Plus, the uncertainty that having Carson Wentz as your quarterback brings every week and we don’t know for sure where he lands on the depth chart. With the selection of Jahan Dotson in the first round and possible—while unlikely—ascension of second-year wideout Dyami Brown, Samuel could find himself as low as WR4.
However, the upside of the situation is hard to ignore. After all, it was only a year ago that Washington signed Samuel to a three-year deal with $23 million guaranteed. That was coming off back-to-back productive seasons in Carolina which ended with 1,051 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns on 77 receptions and 41 rush attempts in 2020. He earned a 19.1-percent target share and racked up 227 yards after the catch. His 14.1 fantasy points per game was good enough for a WR27 finish.
With 4.31 speed and 93rd-percentile burst (PlayerProfiler.com), Samuel has the athleticism to become an explosive playmaker out of the slot for Wentz and company. He’s versatile enough to take snaps at running back, be the team’s primary deep threat, and gobble up yards after the catch on underneath targets. I understand the health concerns. They’re real. But that’s why his ADP is so far down. Fantasy gamers have almost written him off. That’s why it’s important to remember the upside is still there. And let’s not forget, during his two best seasons in Carolina (2019-2020), Samuel missed just one game. He can be healthy. A healthy Samuel will be second on the team in targets with weekly upside to put up 15-plus fantasy points.
DJ Chark, Lions
Like Samuel, DJ Chark has been written-off by fantasy gamers (and some analysts) after a lost 2021 season due to injury. Unlike Samuel, who battled soft tissue problems all season, Chark’s injury was a fractured ankle suffered in Week 4. That ultimately ended his Jaguars career. Now in Detroit, Chark has an opportunity to seize a role as the primary weapon down the field and on the perimeter for Jared Goff. Sure, Jameson Williams was drafted in the first round to be that guy, but he’s still recovering from an ACL injury and will likely miss a good chunk of the season. Even when he’s back, it’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver coming off that severe of an injury, having no offseason or training camp work with the offense, is going to step into a significant role upon return.
That means it’s Chark’s job to lose. He will be that outside the numbers, down the field playmaker while Amon-ra St. Brown is the possession receiver with some help from TJ Hockenson. We forget, but it wasn’t long ago that Chark had a top-20 season in 2019. He caught 73 balls that season for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. He certainly has the size and athleticism to get it done at 6-3 and blazing 4.34 speed. He’s on a one-year “prove it” deal and I absolutely expect he will “prove it.”
Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys
Jaylen Tolbert is one of my favorite picks in the double digit rounds. He’s coming into the league as a third-rounder who was massively productive in college. He’s an older prospect who is ready to step right in and be productive. It appears he will get that opportunity considering the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper, let Cedrick Wilson walk in free agency, and are likely to start Michael Gallup on the PUP list. Free agent signee James Washington, who was essentially Tolbert’s only competition for a starting gig, is expected to miss most of the season after breaking his foot in camp. Now more than ever, it’s likely Tolbert slides in as the WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb to start the season. He has the size and skill to hold his own out there and present a downfield weapon for Dak Prescott while Lamb is moved around the formation and Dalton Schultz eats underneath.
Dallas allows for a ton of fantasy points considering their preferred method of calling plays. The Cowboys were second in pace of play in 2021 and they were above league average in neutral game script pass rate. That’s an ideal environment for any playmaker and only strengthens the case for Tolbert.
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