#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of P.U.N.T. Pediatric Cancer Collaborative, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of touchdown machine Dawson Knox
Childhood cancer poses a threat to every facet of family life. There is a tidal wave of hardship – physical, financial, and emotional – that can last a lifetime. That’s where we come in. From the first day of diagnosis to recovery – and even in the unthinkable wake of a loss – this organization is honored to be the “go to” source of assistance in Western New York through our 6 distinct programs. We work beside hospital psychosocial partners to ensure every dollar we raise gets channeled where it is most needed.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: AFC East
- 2021 Finish: 11-6
- Divisional Record: 5-1
- 2022 Projected Finish: 13-4
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 18th
Buffalo Bills Offense
Play Caller: Ken Dorsey
Ken Dorsey has the keys to a Ferrari as he takes over as the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. Former play-caller, Brian Daboll, has moved on as the new head coach of the New York Giants and left Dorsey a loaded offense led by MVP candidate Josh Allen. Dorsey has spent the last three years as the quarterbacks’ coach in Buffalo while pulling double duty as the passing game coordinator last season. This offense will continue to use a zone run scheme that sets up a heavy dose of play-action and run-pass options (RPO) to get their best players the rock.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 483 (3rd)
- Total Yards: 6,493 (5th)
- Total Plays: 1,143 (3rd)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (10th)
- 1st Downs: 398 (4th), Passing 236 (5th), Rushing 134 (6th)
- Scoring Rate: 45.2% (5th)
- Turnover Rate: 11.3% (14th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 67.2 (3rd)
- Pace of Play: 27.5 Seconds Per Play (3rd)
- Passing Ratio: 59% (11th)
- Neutral Game Script: 65% (2nd)
- RPO: 201 Snaps – 42.3% Success Rate
- Motion: 411 Plays – 40.6% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 133 Plays – 42.1% Success Rate
- Play Action: 243 Plays – 44% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 443 Targets (1st)
RBs: 96 Targets (25th)
TEs: 83 Targets (29th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 893 Plays
OVR: 71% (52% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 66% (51% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 34% (55% Success Rate)
21 Personnel: 120 Plays
OVR: 10% (47% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 37% (55% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 63% (42% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 100 Plays
OVR: 8% (50% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 34% (47% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 66% (52% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #73 Dion Dawkins
Age: 28 HT: 6’5 WT: 320 College: Temple Draft: RD2 Pick 63
OVR PFF: 77.5 Pass: 81.6 Run: 67.5 (1,089 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $14,575,000 per year (16th at position) – Expires 2025
LG: #76 Rodger Saffold
Age: 34 HT: 6’5 WT: 325 College: Indiana Draft: RD2 Pick 33
OVR PFF: 69.3 Pass: 44.8 Run: 76.8 (853 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $625,000 per year (98th at position) – Expires 2024
C: #60 Mitch Morse
Age: 30 HT: 6’6 WT: 305 College: Missouri Draft: RD2 Pick 49
OVR PFF: 63.4 Pass: 69.9 Run: 60.0 (1,167 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $9,750,000 per year (8th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #71 Ryan Bates
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 302 College: Penn State Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 64.3 Pass: 74.5 Run: 61.2 (294 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $4,250,000 per year (13th at position) – Expires 2026
RT: #79 Spencer Brown
Age: 24 HT: 6’8 WT: 311 College: Northern Iowa Draft: RD3 Pick 93
OVR PFF: 62.6 Pass: 51.0 Run: 76.0 (726 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $1,202,030 per year (52nd at position) – Expires 2025
“This could be his best season yet, and that’s saying something”
QB Room
#17 Josh Allen
Age: 26 HT: 6’5 WT: 237 College: Wyoming Draft: RD1 Pick 7
Contract: 7 years / $43,000,000 per year (5th at position) – Expires 2029
Josh Allen has surpassed Patrick Mahomes as the QB1 in consensus rankings heading into this season due to his ability to beat you with his arm and legs. This shouldn’t surprise anybody who has been paying attention to the Bills over the last two seasons. Over that span, Allen has thrown for 8,951 yards and 73 touchdowns while adding 1,184 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Allen finished in the top five in several metrics last season, including deep ball attempts (80), red zone attempts (129), air yards (5,583), air yards per attempt (8.7), and fantasy points per game (24.6). In two playoff games last season, he completed 77% of his passes for 637 yards and nine touchdowns with zero turnovers. This could be his best season yet, and that’s saying something.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 673 Attempts, 65.9% Comp Rate, 4,779 Yards (7.1 YPA), 39 Touchdowns (5.8%)
Rushing: 112 Attempts, 6.1 YPC, 684 Yards, 7 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#26 Devin Singletary
Age: 24 HT: 5’7 WT: 203 College: FAU Draft: RD3 Pick 74
Contract: 1 year / $974,500 per year (102nd at position) – Expires 2023
Devin Singletary took off at the end of last season, finishing as the RB3 over the final six games. He finished the season with 188 carries for 870 yards and seven touchdowns, with 40 receptions for 228 yards and a touchdown through the air. He will be the early down back and should see most of the goal line and short yardage work to start the season. Singletary had 46 red zone touches last season and finished fifth in breakaway runs with 14. As for the passing game, he will have opportunities, but it’s more likely that second-round pick James Cook gets most of the work as the season progresses.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 5% Target Share, 34 Targets, 25 Receptions, 139 yards (5.6 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 44% Rush Share, 197 Attempts, 889 Yards (4.5 YPC), 7 Touchdowns
#28 James Cook
Age: 22 HT: 5’11 WT: 190 College: Georgia Draft: RD2 Pick 63
Contract: 4 years / $1,458,016 per year (49th at position) – Expires 2026
The Bills attempted to sign J.D. McKissic as a pass-catching back, but he chose to re-sign with the Washington Commanders. They settled for a one-year deal with Duke Johnson just before the NFL Draft as an insurance policy. Then the Bills found their guy in the second round when they selected James Cook from the University of Georgia. Cook finished his collegiate career with 67 receptions for 739 yards and six touchdowns while splitting time with Zamir White, who was taken in the fourth round by the Las Vegas Raiders. Cook had his best season as a runner during his senior year at Georgia, finishing with 728 yards on 113 carries for an average of 6.4 yards per carry. He was the lightning to White’s thunder. He will fill the same role with the Bills behind Devin Singletary.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 67 Targets, 54 Receptions, 409 Yards (7.6 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 26% Rush Share, 117 Attempts, 583 Yards (5.0 YPC), 4 Touchdowns
WR Room
#14 Stefon Diggs
Age: 28 HT: 6’0 WT: 191 College: Maryland Draft: RD5 Pick 146
Contract: 6 years / $24,000,000 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2028
Some say Stefon Diggs regressed last season after posting career-highs in targets and yards in 2020. It’s hard for me to get on board with that narrative when he went for 103 receptions, 1,225 yards, and scored a career-high ten touchdowns last season. The reality is he was targeted 164 times compared to 166 in 2020, so the only difference was in catch rate and yards per target. Those are metrics that could return to 2020 to form this season. He still finished eighth in target rate (28.9%), seventh in routes run (567), second in air yards (1,828), seventh in deep targets (28), and second in red zone targets (34). I could keep going, but you get the point. It’s absolutely within his range of outcomes to finish as the WR1 this season. According to Reception Perception, Diggs finished with a 79.4% success rate vs. man coverage and 86.8% vs. zone coverage. That puts him in the 97th and 94th percentile, respectively. Don’t give up on Diggs just yet.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 26% Target Share, 175 Targets, 114 Receptions, 1,377 Yards (12.1 YPR), 13 Touchdowns
“he is the Ezekiel Elliott of the WR position for 2022”
#13 Gabriel Davis
Age: 23 HT: 6’2 WT: 210 College: UCF Draft: RD4 Pick 128
Contract: 2 years / $998,593 per year (173rd at position) – Expires 2024
Gabriel Davis has become one of the most talked about players in real-life football and fantasy. It all started with one playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs when he exploded for four touchdowns. The noise seems to get louder and louder as we get closer to the start of the season. We know he is the clear WR2 in an explosive offense, so the opportunities should be there. However, the metrics don’t stack up. According to Reception Perception, his success rate vs. man and zone coverage were in the 33rd and 27th percentile, respectively. It’s also worth mentioning that his success rate vs. press coverage was only in the 36th percentile. That’s concerning, considering he is the X receiver and was on the line for 71% of his snaps. On a positive note, early camp reports indicate that he looks more explosive and is in the best shape of his life. I expect Davis to take the next step this season solely based on his defined role, the offense he plays in, and Allen. In short, he is the Ezekiel Elliott of the WR position for 2022. Volume over Efficiency. The volume will be there, so it’s up to him to make plays consistently.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 15% Target Share, 101 Targets, 64 Receptions, 980 Yards (15.3 YPR), 8 Touchdowns
#80 Jamison Crowder
Age: 29 HT: 5’9 WT: 177 College: Duke Draft: RD4 Pick 105
Contract: 1 year / $2,000,000 per year (90th at position) – Expires 2023
Jamison Crowder is locked up in a camp battle with Isaiah McKenzie for the Cole Beasley role in this offense. With Diggs and Davis expected to be the first and second options, there will be room to work for the WR3 in this air attack. I lean towards the veteran on a team with Super Bowl expectations early in the season. However, I would not be surprised if McKenzie beats him out when the real games start. Crowder has had 50 or more receptions for three consecutive seasons but struggled to be relevant in an awful New York Jets offense last season. Things are just a little different in Buffalo.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 81 Targets, 59 Receptions, 537 Yards (9.1 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#88 Dawson Knox
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 254 College: Ole Miss Draft: RD3 Pick 96
Contract: 1 year / $880,400 per year (116th at position) – Expires 2023
Dawson Knox took a huge step last season and has cemented himself as the TE1 in this offense. He finished last season with 49 receptions on 71 targets for 587 yards and nine touchdowns. He blew away his career-highs and is only 25 years old. He finished fourth in snap share (86.1%), eighth in routes run (425), fifth in deep targets (10), and fourth in red zone targets (19). I don’t expect him to repeat his nine-touchdown performance from a year ago, but I would not be surprised to see him set new career-highs in receptions and yards again.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 81 Targets, 57 Receptions, 673 Yards (11.8 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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