#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
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- Division: NFC East
- 2021 Finish: 7-10
- Divisional Record: 2-4
- 2022 Projected Finish: 8-9
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 31st
Washington Commanders Offense
Play Caller: Scott Turner
Scott Turner enters his third season as the Offensive Coordinator for the Washington Commanders and will once again have a new starting quarterback. The list of quarterbacks that have started games during his tenure include Alex Smith (1), Dwayne Haskins (6), Kyle Allen (4), Taylor Heinicke (15), Ryan Fitzpatrick (1) and Garrett Gilbert (1). It’s remarkable that this group won 14 games over the last two years and made the playoffs in 2020! This year, the offense turns to Carson Wentz, who led the Indianapolis Colts to a 9-8 record last season but missed the playoffs due to a week 18 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wentz is not the only piece added to this offense this offseason. They selected wide receiver Jahan Dotson with the 16th overall pick and running back Brian Robinson with the 98th overall pick. Not to mention, Curtis Samuel appears healthy, and they re-signed pass-catching back, J.D. McKissick. Turner and Wentz have more than enough to work with to make this offense more explosive in 2022.
Turner likes to use zone schemes in the run game, and it’s not uncommon for him to pair that up with jet sweeps and other pre-snap motion looks. Washington finished fifth in pre-snap motion last season with 588 such plays. He will also use the run game to set up play-action and the RPO game. Turner has three running backs with unique skill sets, which makes this offense a little more challenging to figure out in terms of usage. Antonio Gibson will be the lead back, but McKissic will be involved in the passing game, and early reports lead you to believe that Robinson will get touches in short yardage and goal-line situations. We need to figure out of this is simply “Coach Speak” or if there is some truth.
As for the passing game, the Commanders should take a sizable leap forward with a receiving core that includes Terry McLaurin, Dotson, Samuel, and Logan Thomas. Wentz seems at his best when he can throw on rhythm and get the ball out quickly. Dotson and Samuel are guys that you can get in space with easy throws and allow them to create yards after the catch, while McLaurin gives you big play ability in the intermediate to deep parts of the field. If this group can stay healthy, they can surprise some people with what they can do offensively.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 335 (24th)
- Total Yards: 5,502 (25th)
- Total Plays: 1,070 (17th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.1 (22nd)
- 1st Downs: 345 (16th), Passing 187 (21st), Rushing 129 (9th)
- Scoring Rate: 34.6% (21st)
- Turnover Rate: 13.4% (25th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 62.9 (17th)
- Pace of Play: 29.5 Seconds Per Play (22nd)
- Passing Ratio: 55% (25th)
- Neutral Game Script: 54% (20th)
- RPO: 170 Snaps
- Motion: 588 Plays
- No Huddle: 85 Plays
- Play Action: 211 Plays
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 307 Targets (23rd)
RBs: 128 Targets (9th)
TEs: 99 Targets (24th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 802 Plays
OVR: 75% (48% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 60% (42% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 40% (56% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 195 Plays
OVR: 18% (51% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 39% (55% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 61% (48% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #72 Charles Leno Jr.
Age: 30 HT: 6’3 WT: 302 College: Boise State Draft: RD7 Pick 246
OVR PFF: 81.2 Pass: 87.3 Run: 63.5 (1,121 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $12,500,000 per year (18th at position) – Expires 2025
LG: #68 Andrew Norwell
Age: 30 HT: 6’6 WT: 310 College: Ohio State Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 66.7 Pass: 73.5 Run: 62.7 (1,077 snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $5,000,000 per year (11th at position) – Expires 2024
C: #73 Chase Roullier
Age: 28 HT: 6’4 WT: 312 College: Wyoming Draft: RD6 Pick 199
OVR PFF: 83.7 Pass: 69.3 Run: 86.1 (490 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $10,125,000 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #71 Wes Schweitzer
Age: 28 HT: 6’4 WT: 300 College: San Jose State Draft: RD6 Pick 195
OVR PFF: 78.7 Pass: 65.9 Run: 85.6 (401 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $4,500,000 per year (26th at position) – Expires 2023
RT: #76 Sam Cosmi
Age: 23 HT: 6’6 WT: 309 College: Texas Draft: RD2 Pick 51
OVR PFF: 74.9 Pass: 63.4 Run: 81.3 (474 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $1,656,392 per year (28th at position) – Expires 2025
“I can’t help but think it affected the six inches between his ears more than it should have”
QB Room
#11 Carson Wentz
Age: 29 HT: 6’5 WT: 237 College: North Dakota St Draft: RD1 Pick 2
Contract: 3 years / $32,000,000 per year (12th at position) – Expires 2025
Carson Wentz is on one heck of a roller coaster ride. The former second overall pick is now on his third team in three years. In 2017, he made the Pro Bowl and led the Eagles to an 11-2 start before getting injured. Nick Foles would lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl win that year with Wentz on the sideline. In 2018, he completed almost 70% of his passes for 3,000 yards in just 11 games. He missed five games again due to injury. In 2019, the Eagles went 9-7, and he threw for 4,039 yards and 27 touchdowns. That offseason, the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round, and that’s when things got interesting. It didn’t sit well with Wentz, and I can’t help but think it affected the six inches between his ears more than it should have. The Eagles would win just three games over his 12 starts, and Hurts finished the season as the starter, which set up the stage for the trade to the Colts.
In his lone season with the Colts, Wentz would complete 62% of his passes for 3,563 yards and 27 touchdowns while only throwing seven interceptions. He was playing behind a very good offensive line, and the Colts had Jonathan Taylor. He reunited with Frank Reich, who was with the Eagles when Wentz torched the league in 2017. In the final game of the season, all the Colts had to do was beat the Jaguars, and they would make the playoffs. They lost. To the Jaguars. That would end his time with the Colts, who traded him to the Commanders. This could be Wentz’s last opportunity as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has plenty of talent around him on this offense so there are no more excuses heading into 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 542 Attempts, 65.7% Comp Rate, 3,762 Yards (6.9 YPA), 26 Touchdowns (4.8%)
Rushing: 46 Attempts, 4.1 YPC, 189 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#24 Antonio Gibson
Age: 24 HT: 6’2 WT: 220 College: Memphis Draft: Rd3 Pick 66
Contract: 2 years / $1,233,160 per year (60th at position) – Expires 2024
There is no question about Antonio Gibson’s talent. He finished the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He has the pass-catching ability as a former wide receiver, but the Commanders re-signed J.D. McKissic, who has owned the pass-catching role for the last two years. Gibson took advantage of McKissic missing six games last season as he hauled in 42 receptions on 52 targets and converted three of those receptions into touchdowns. He had a career-high 258 carries for 1,037 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He finished fourth in red zone touches (52), eight in total touchdowns (10), tenth in yards per route run (1.63), fifth in evaded tackles (87), and eight in breakaway runs (12). Sounds like he’s earned a clear path as the RB1 in this offense. Yet the Commanders re-signed McKissic and drafted bruising running back Brian Robinson, who could specialize in short yardage and goal-line situations.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 8% Target Share, 43 Targets, 35 Receptions, 242 yards (6.9 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 50% Rush Share, 231 Attempts, 1,061 Yards (4.6 YPC), 9 Touchdowns
#23 J.D. McKissic
Age: 28 HT: 5’10 WT: 195 College: Arkansas State Draft: UDFA
Contract: 2 years / $3,500,000 per year (59th at position) – Expires 2024
J.D. McKissic has dominated the pass-catching role in this offense since he arrived in Washington two years ago. He’s turned 163 targets into 123 receptions for 986 yards and four touchdowns. McKissic became a free agent after the 2021 season, and many believed he wasn’t coming back after the Commanders decided initially not to make him an offer. He visited with the Buffalo Bills and was offered a two-year contract for $7 million but declined at the last minute when the Commanders offered to match the deal. We can assume his role is defined in this offense, and it’s not changing if he’s healthy.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 65 Targets, 49 Receptions, 380 Yards (7.8 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 10% Rush Share, 46 Attempts, 203 Yards (4.4 YPC), 1 Touchdown
#8 Brian Robinson
Age: 23 HT: 6’1 WT: 228 College: Alabama Draft: RD3 Pick 98
Contract: 4 years / $1,261,226 per year (59th at position) – Expires 2026
Brian Robinson was drafted in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft to add depth and a bruising running style he displayed in his final season at Alabama. He exploded in his fifth year at Alabama with 271 carries for 1,343 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also showed some pass-catching ability with 35 receptions for another 296 yards. He finished fifth in evaded tackles (87), eighth in breakaway runs (12), and eleventh in yards created (715). If Gibson goes down for any reason, it’s Robinson that will get the opportunity to lead this backfield in the run game.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 2% Target Share, 11 Targets, 8 Receptions, 49 Yards (6.1 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 23% Rush Share, 106 Attempts, 424 Yards (4.0 YPC), 6 Touchdowns
WR Room
#17 Terry McLaurin
Age: 26 HT: 6’0 WT: 210 College: Ohio State Draft: RD3 Pick 76
Contract: 4 years / $23,200,000 per year (9th at position) – Expires 2026
Terry McLaurin has put together two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and if he had played a full slate in his rookie year (missed three games), he would have done it all three years in the NFL. Considering the revolving door at the quarterback position in Washington, you could say with confidence he is not quarterback-dependent. Wentz has always been able to throw a nice deep ball, and that fits well into what McLaurin brings to this offense. He finished last season fourth in air yards (1,656) and second in deep targets (31). The problem was nobody could get him the rock. With Dotson and a healthy Samuel, teams can no longer focus on McLaurin. They will have to defend the entire field, which could open things up for McLaurin and Wentz to make big splash plays.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 23% Target Share, 125 Targets, 82 Receptions, 1,102 Yards (13.4 YPR), 8 Touchdowns
“He could turn out to be the best wide receiver in this draft class”
#1 Jahan Dotson
Age: 22 HT: 5’11 WT: 182 College: Penn State Draft: RD1 Pick 16
Contract: 4 years / $3,762,089 per year (56th at position) – Expires 2026 – 5th year option available
Jahan Dotson plugs in as the WR2 in this offense and should make for an excellent complement to McLaurin. The Commanders will play in negative game scripts more often than they would like, resulting in more opportunities for Dotson. He comes to the NFL as a polished route runner who can change direction and get in and out of breaks with suddenness, creating route side space for his quarterback. He can attack all three levels of the field and excels at the catch point with above average ball skills. He improved in each of his four years at Penn State and finished his senior season with 91 receptions for 1,282 yards and 12 touchdowns. He could turn out to be the best wide receiver in this draft class.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 16% Target Share, 87 Targets, 57 Receptions, 663 Yards (11.6 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
#10 Curtis Samuel
Age: 25 HT: 5’11 WT: 195 College: Ohio State Draft: RD2 Pick 40
Contract: 2 years / $11,500,000 per year (29th at position) – Expires 2024
Curtis Samuel came to Washington with so much promise. He played for Rivera as the Head Coach for the Carolina Panthers from 2017-2019. In 2020, his last season in Carolina, Samuel had 77 receptions for 851 yards and three touchdowns, but he could play in the run game that made him stand out. He carried the rock 41 times for 200 yards and two more scores. Unfortunately, he battled groin and hamstring injuries during the 2021 season and only played in five games. Samuel just never got a chance to get going. He will be in the mix as the starting slot receiver in this offense, but with McLaurin, Dotson, Gibson, McKissic, and Logan Thomas, there may not be enough balls to go around to keep him fantasy relevant weekly.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 65 Targets, 45 Receptions, 441 Yards (9.8 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
Rushing: 6% Rush Share, 28 Attempts, 177 Yards (6.3 YPC), 1 Touchdown
TE Room
#82 Logan Thomas
Age: 31 HT: 6’6 WT: 250 College: Virginia Tech Draft: RD4 Pick 120
Contract: 3 years / $8,021,667 per year (14th at position) – Expires 2025
Logan Thomas is another player the Commanders had high hopes for in 2020, but he missed 11 games due to a hamstring strain and torn ACL. He is set to start the season on the PUP list allowing John Bates and Cole Turner to see some action. The reality is, when Thomas is ready, he will take over as the TE1, but there is no reason to rush him back. He’s a late stash for potential fantasy relevance late in the season and into your fantasy playoffs.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 65 Targets, 45 Receptions, 441 Yards (9.8 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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