#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Alzheimer’s Association, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of Kendall Hinton – the guy who gave us one of the craziest fantasy football decisions in recent years when the Broncos QB room was hit with Covid
The mission of the Alzheimer’s Association is to eliminate Alzheimer’s disease through the advancement of research; to provide and enhance care and support for all affected, and to reduce the risk of dementia through the promotion of brain health.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: AFC West
- 2021 Finish: 7-10
- Divisional Record: 1-5
- 2022 Projected Finish: 9-8
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 17th
Denver Broncos Offense
Play Caller: Nathaniel Hackett
Nathaniel Hackett will implement a West Coast Offense in Denver. Traditionally, the West Coast Offense will stretch the defense horizontally and put players in space with short throws giving them room to work after the catch. However, it makes sense to add more vertical concepts to the offense when you have a quarterback with Russell Wilson’s arm talent. If Tim Patrick had not been lost for the season, I would have expected this offense to take advantage of the size and athleticism that Courtland Sutton (6’4), Tim Patrick (6’4) and Albert Okwuegbunam (6’5) create. Unfortunately, Patrick’s replacement, K.J. Hamler stands just 5’9 so that does change things a little bit for me. Hackett and Wilson will still attack teams vertically, but the scheme changes a bit regarding how they do that. Jeudy and Albert O should benefit more with the loss of Tim Patrick.
As for the run game, I would expect to see the wide zone scheme that fits the skill set of Javonte Williams and gives Melvin Gordon III enough flexibility with additional variations this scheme can present. Williams will lead this backfield, but the re-signing of Gordon III, shows the Broncos prefer a two-back committee that worked well for them last season. In today’s NFL, you can never have enough good running backs on your roster. The two backs combined for 1,821 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns on the ground last season. It makes sense to continue to feed the hot hand and keep both runners fresh, but I can’t help but think that Williams just gives them a little more juice this season. After all, Gordon is 29 years young and you know what that means in running back years, right?
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 335 (23rd)
- Total Yards: 5,618 (19th)
- Total Plays: 1,036 (27th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.4 (19th)
- 1st Downs: 331 (21st), Passing 179 (23nd), Rushing 124 (11th)
- Scoring Rate: 36.9% (18th)
- Turnover Rate: 9.5% (9th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 60.9 (26th)
- Pace of Play: 30.2 Seconds Per Play (27th)
- Passing Ratio: 56% (21st)
- Neutral Game Script: 55% (18th)
- RPO: 110 Snaps
- Motion: 452 Plays
- No Huddle: 53 Plays
- Play Action: 150 Plays
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 281 Targets (28th)
RBs: 93 Targets (28th)
TEs: 142 Targets (7th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 628 Plays
OVR: 61% (46% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 66% (44% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 34% (51% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 273 Plays
OVR: 27% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 46% (44% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 54% (54% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #72 Garett Bolles
Age: 30 HT: 6’5 WT: 300 College: Utah Draft: RD1 Pick 20
OVR PFF: 76.6 Pass: 77.8 Run: 68.9 (870 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $17,000,000 per year (8th at position) – Expires 2025
LG: #66 Dalton Risner
Age: 27 HT: 6’5 WT: 312 College: Kansas State Draft: RD2 Pick 41
OVR PFF: 68.5 Pass: 73.6 Run: 63.2 (832 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $1,785,571 per year (24th at position) – Expires 2023
C: #79 Lloyd Cushenberry III
Age: 24 HT: 6’4 WT: 315 College: LSU Draft: RD3 Pick 83
OVR PFF: 64.2 Pass: 71.3 Run 62.5 (1,039 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $1,144,210 per year (37th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #61 Graham Glasgow
Age: 29 HT: 6’6 WT: 310 College: Michigan Draft: RD3 Pick 95
OVR PFF: 65.1 Pass: 70.1 Run 61.1 (384 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $7,050,000 per year (11th at position) – Expires 2024
RT: #57 Billy Turner
Age: 30 HT: 6’5 WT: 310 College: North Dakota State Draft: RD3 Pick 67
OVR PFF: 66.2 Pass: 68.3 Run: 60.3 (810 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $2,500,000 per year (22nd at position) – Expires 2023
“Going from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson must feel like winning the lottery in Denver”
QB Room
#3 Russell Wilson
Age: 33 HT: 5’11 WT: 215 College: Wisconsin Draft: RD3 Pick 75
Contract: 2 years / $35,000,000 per year (9th at position) – Expires 2024
Russell Wilson landed in a great situation with the Denver Broncos. They have a stout defense that can flip field position and force turnovers, putting the offense in great situations. They have play makers at the wide receiver position, young talent at the tight end position, and a dynamic duo in the backfield. There is no doubt that Hackett and his staff will take advantage of the leadership and skillset that Wilson brings to Denver. Going from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson must feel like winning the lottery in Denver. Will it be enough to compete in the AFC West?
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 542 Attempts, 67.2% Comp Rate, 4,343 Yards (8.0 YPA), 32 Touchdowns (5.9%)
Rushing: 55 Attempts, 5.5 YPC, 305 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#33 Javonte Williams
Age: 22 HT: 5’10 WT: 220 College: North Carolina Draft: RD2 Pick 35
Contract: 3 years / $2,216,439 per year (30th at position) – Expires 2025
Javonte Williams exceeded all expectations as a second-round draft pick for the Denver Broncos in 2021. He finished his rookie season with 903 yards rushing and 316 yards receiving for a total of seven touchdowns. He showed his versatility as a runner and pass-catcher in this offense and now heads into his sophomore season, looking to take the next step. He finished sixth in evaded tackles (81), sixth in yards created (841), and seventh in yards created per touch (3.42) on just 203 carries. We should see the workload increase in year two, but I would not expect him to see 250-plus carries with Gordon III still on the roster.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 11% Target Share, 60 Targets, 48 Receptions, 352 yards (7.3 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 50% Rush Share, 231 Attempts, 1,038 Yards (4.5 YPC), 8 Touchdowns
#25 Melvin Gordon III
Age: 29 HT: 6’1 WT: 215 College: Wisconsin Draft: RD1 Pick 15
Contract: 1 year / $2,500,000 per year (26th at position) – Expires 2023
Melvin Gordon III looks like he may have found the fountain of youth in Denver. He arrived prior to the 2019 season after spending his first five years with the Chargers. During his last season in Los Angeles, he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and finished with just 612 yards rushing. That was a career-low and the Chargers were ready to give Austin Ekeler the keys to the backfield. Since joining the Broncos, Gordon has 1,904 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns over the last two seasons while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He also hauled in 60 passes for 371 yards and three more scores. Not bad for a running back entering his seventh season in the NFL at 29. I do believe this is the year that the carries and passing-game work fall of a little bit, but he will still be a vital part of this offense, and if Williams goes down, this team has confidence that MelGo will be just fine as the primary ball-carrier.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 5% Target Share, 27 Targets, 20 Receptions, 160 Yards (8.0 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 34% Rush Share, 157 Attempts, 706 Yards (4.5 YPC), 6 Touchdowns
WR Room
#14 Courtland Sutton
Age: 26 HT: 6’4 WT: 216 College: SMU Draft: RD 2 Pick 40
Contract: 4 years / $15,000,000 per year (24th at position) – Expires 2026
Courtland Sutton had high expectations entering the 2020 season. He was coming off a 2019 campaign where he finished with 72 receptions for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 124 targets. Unfortunately, he would tear his ACL in the second game of the 2020 season, and the long journey to recovery had begun. He played in all 17 games in 2021 and finished with 58 receptions for 776 yards and two touchdowns. Now, two years removed from the ACL injury, he looks to have his best season as a pro with Wilson behind center.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 21% Target Share, 114 Targets, 74 Receptions, 1,153 Yards (15.6 YPR), 10 Touchdowns
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jeudy lead this team in targets and receptions”
#10 Jerry Jeudy
Age: 23 HT: 6’1 WT: 193 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 15
Contract: 2 years / $3,798,240 per year (54th at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
In 2020, Jerry Jeudy’s rookie season, he was targeted 113 times, but only turned 52 of those into receptions (46% catch rate) for 856 yards and three touchdowns. In 2021, Jeudy suffered a high-ankle sprain in the season’s first game and would miss seven games. He finished with just 38 receptions for 467 yards and never found the end zone. Teddy Bridgewater can have that effect on a wide receiver. Jeudy enters year three in Denver and should compete with Sutton as the WR1 in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jeudy lead this team in targets and receptions, but the red zone targets and ability to score the football could be the difference.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 22% Target Share, 119 Targets, 77 Receptions, 1,069 Yards (13.9 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
#1 K.J. Hamler
Age: 23 HT: 5’9 WT: 178 College: Penn State Draft: RD2 Pick 46
Contract: 2 years / $1,784,284 per year (95th at position) – Expires 2024
K.J. Hamler will need to step up in a big way after missing 17 games over the last two years. He immediately steps into the WR3 role in this offense with the loss of Tim Patrick to a torn ACL this past week. In his rookie season (2020), Hamler showed promise turning 56 targets into 381 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he would miss 14 games last season due to injury, but he’s now fully recovered and will need to prove to be an asset moving forward.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 65 Targets, 40 Receptions, 496 Yards (12.4 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
TE Room
#85 Albert Okwuegbunam
Age: 24 HT: 6’5 WT: 258 College: Missouri Draft: RD4 Pick 118
Contract: 2 years / $1,011,011 per year (86th at position) – Expires 2024
Albert Okwuegbunam will begin his third season in Denver as the TE1 as we prepare for the preseason. He finished last season with 33 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on just 40 targets. He has surprising speed for a 6’6 dude who weighs almost 260 pounds. He also finished in the 100th Percentile with a Speed Score of 129.6 per Player Profiler. He showed off some of that speed with 255 yards after the catch last season and with more targets and opportunities coming his way, we could see a breakout season this year.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 16% Target Share, 87 Targets, 65 Receptions, 715 Yards (11.0 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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