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Damien Harris, Patriots
Last season, Damien Harris finished second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15) behind just Jonathan Taylor (18). Yet, Taylor won leagues as the RB1 while Harris was the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He was completely touchdown dependent. In the four games that he didn’t score, Harris’ best finish was RB27 with 11.7 fantasy points in Week 1. Based on his 929 rushing yards, he doubled his expected touchdowns total. His 6.8% touchdown rate was third-highest among running backs. It’s hard to imagine he scores at that rate again as that should regress back to the mean somewhat, at least.
So where are the fantasy points coming from? He doesn’t catch passes—he averaged just one per game in 2021. It’s not like he’s seeing workhorse touches on the ground, either—he averaged just 13.5 carries per game. Rhamondre Stevenson proved himself as a rookie. He’s not going anywhere. And he is a better pass-catcher than Harris, too. The Patriots just drafted two running backs—Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris—in the draft, and James White is back healthy.
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Sure, the Patriots want to run the ball, but they did that last year, too, and Harris was still a middling RB2 despite a near-7% touchdown rate. It’s also possible they ramp-up the pass attack in Mac Jones’ second year and with a (slightly) upgraded receiving corps. Let’s not forget, Matt Patricia seems to be the likely candidate for offensive play-caller in New England. Gross. Harris’ ADP has been suppressed as fantasy gamers realize the reality of his situation. But he’s the prototypical “deadzone” running back. Even in the middle rounds I just can’t click the button.
David Montgomery, Bears
David Montgomery seems to always break through a bad situation to become a solid fantasy producer. While that’s great, I’m still refusing to draft him in 2022. He’s in one of the worst situations of any starting running back. I recently did a study on why offensive environment is so important to a running back’s fantasy output. The Bears are the quintessential offense to avoid based on the results. They could legitimately score the fewest points in the league. They’re going to be slow, inefficient, with fewer possessions, plays, and red zone trips. With Justin Fields at quarterback things may be even worse for Montgomery. Fields’ athleticism and lack of polish as a pocket-passer (nevermind the lack of weapons), make him more apt to call his own number. That will be especially detrimental to Montgomery on the rare occasion the Bears are in the red zone.
Montgomery doesn’t have the receiving profile to even make up for it, nor the athletic traits to create chunk plays and breakaway runs on his own. He was 31st in evaded tackles per touch in 2021, 42nd in yards created per touch, and 37th in breakaway run rate (PlayerProfiler.com). If you want to draft him in the middle rounds because he’s going to get 20 touches per game, fine. I get it. But just know the efficiency and ceiling won’t be there. And who’s to say the new coaching staff doesn’t come in and decide to give Khalil Herbert a few more touches per game? Fantasy gamers consider Montgomery a “safe pick.” I think we just proved he’s anything but.
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
Rashaad Penny averaged more than 22 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks last season. He was a league-winner. A waiver-wire king. That’s all well and good, but we’re now in 2022. He’s in the worst offense in the league with the worst quarterback situation in the league. Just like we talked about with David Montgomery, this is going to be an offense that plays at a slow pace, is inefficient, struggles to keep drives alive, won’t see many red zone trips, and will limit the fantasy production of all of its players. Penny is even less equipped to make up for this as a pass-catcher than Montgomery. Even in a functional offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback last year, he averaged just one reception per game over his hot five-game stretch.
Let’s not forget, the Seahawks just used a second-round pick on a running back. And sure, Penny is reportedly expected to remain atop the depth chart, but it’s only a matter of time before Kenneth Walker gets an opportunity to take on a bigger role in the backfield. So now we have a running back who doesn’t catch passes, in a bad offense, and (at best) splitting the early-downs work. I’m out.
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