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2022 Touchdown Regression Candidates
Note: Candidates are based on a calculation of expected touchdowns compared to actual touchdowns scored in 2021.
Actual production will be impacted by other team and personnel changes and some players will continue to be outliers.
2020 – 2021
In 2020 there were:
- 38 Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
- 29 Running Backs
who could have been deemed ‘Touchdown Regression Candidates’
Of this sample, 21 Wide Receivers / Tight Ends and 17 Running Backs had enough production to measure in 2021
- 19 (90-percent) of Wide Receivers / Tight Ends had at least some level of regression towards the average
- 10 (48-percent) flipped the scale completely, from either positive to negative or vice-versa
- 16 (94-percent) of Running Backs had at least some level of regression towards the average
- 11 (65-percent) flipped the scale completely, from either positive to negative or vice-versa
The odds are that most of these candidates will regress towards the average and some of them will swing significantly.
Positive Regression Candidates
Note: Positive Regression refers to a statistic that was unusually low and is expected to regress towards average. In this instance, it means that the player is a candidate to increase their touchdowns in 2022 (all things being equal)
Wide Receiver / Tight End
📈 Jakobi Meyers – New England Patriots
📈 D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers
📈 Terry McLaurin – Washington Commanders
📈 Cole Beasley
📈 A.J. Green – Arizona Cardinals
📈 Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears
📈 Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos
📈 Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers
📈 Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders
📈 Mike Gesicki – Miami Dolphins
📈 Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
📈 Chase Claypool – Pittsburgh Steelers
📈 Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
📈 Laviska Shenault Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars
📈 Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears
📈 Mecole Hardman – Kansas City Chiefs
Running Back
📈 Antonio Gibson – Washington Commanders
📈 Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns
📈 Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles
📈 Saquon Barkley – New York Giants
📈 Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
📈 Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys
📈 Sony Michel
📈 Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints
📈 Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings
📈 Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers
📈 Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers
📈 Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers
📈 Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos
📈 Devontae Booker
📈 Chase Edmonds – Miami Dolphins
Negative Regression Candidates
Note: Negative Regression refers to a statistic that was unusually high and is expected to regress towards average. In this instance, it means that the player is a candidate to decrease their touchdowns in 2022 (all things being equal)
Wide Receiver / Tight End
📉 Robby Anderson – Carolina Panthers
📉 Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams
📉 Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings
📉 Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns
📉 Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers
📉 Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys
📉 Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams
📉 Odell Beckham Jr.
📉 D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
📉 Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
📉 Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
📉 Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings
📉 Hunter Renfrow – Las Vegas Raiders
📉 Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals
📉 K.J. Osborn – Minnesota Vikings
📉 Marquez Callaway – New Orleans Saints
Running Back
📉 James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars
📉 Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
📉 Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
📉 Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
📉 Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders
📉 Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers
📉 Damien Harris – New England Patriots
📉 Latavius Murray
📉 Ronald Jones II – Kansas City Chiefs
📉 James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
📉 Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys
📉 Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
📉 Cordarrelle Patterson – Atlanta Falcons
📉 Darrel Williams
