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2022 NFL MVP Bets
With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, we have hit the slow point in the NFL offseason. While many fans will flock to updating their fantasy football rankings and mock drafts, another avenue is future bets across the league.
Like anything in sports betting, there is a wide array of avenues to venture. Season-long player props, win/loss records, division winners, and Super Bowl champions are some of the more common NFL futures. Another option under most sportsbooks is ‘Awards’. You can look at odds for coach of the year, offensive/defensive players of the year, and my personal favorite, the NFL Most Valuable Player.
For some personal background, the MVP award peaked my interest around this time last year. Looking over past winners and their situations leading up to their memorable seasons, I noticed trends piling up. Enough conviction to write an article on why I thought someone would win.
Lessons Learned
I made some mistakes in my first year at this article. The largest mistake I made was discounting certain players due to my personal belief. For instance, wins are crucial to MVP winners. Makes sense: typically the award goes to the best player on the best team. My mistake was going off Vegas’s preseason win total over/unders. So while players like Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow were in the bottom-10 of preseason win projections, they exceeded expectations, won their respective divisions, and at points had MVP potential.
Likewise, back-to-back MVP seasons had not been done since Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009. In NFL history, only five times had a winner repeated the following year. No way Aaron Rodgers could do it again. We all know how that turned out.
With this in mind, the three above did meet all the criteria spanning the last decade-plus. I was just foolish enough to doubt the likelihood any could win. Others that met the criteria were Tom Brady (2nd in voting) and Dak Prescott (7th in passing yards per game and T-4th in passing touchdowns). It did, however, have players fit the criteria who disappointed such as Baker Mayfield. Here are some facts and trends and who fits the build of previous MVP winners:
No Rookies
No rookie has ever won the award. Ever. Regardless of the position. We have seen some players win in their first year of play, including Mahomes in 2018 and Jackson in 2019. But not in their rookie campaign. And while this year’s crop of rookies has less hype than others, history suggests it would be foolish to bet your favorite rookie prospect to be the first to win the award.
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Fade Running Backs
Whether we like it or not, the MVP is a quarterback award. Over the last 20 years, we have 21 MVPs (thanks to Peyton Manning and Steve McNair’s split in 2003). Only three running backs have won the award in that span. Shaun Alexander won in 2005, when he set the league record for most touchdowns in a season at 28 total scores. LaDainian Tomlinson the next year in 2006, when he broke Alexander’s record with 31 total touchdowns. And Adrian Peterson in 2012, when he rushed for over 2,097 rushing yards, second most all-time.
My point: unless you are convinced a running back will break a league record in either rushing yards or total touchdowns, don’t bet a running back. Look at the last two years: we’ve seen amazing seasons from 2020 Derrick Henry (2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns) and 2021 Jonathan Taylor (over 2,100 total yards and 20 touchdowns). Neither received a first place vote. The league is pass oriented, and the award will, likely, go to a quarterback.
Winning Matters
I mean, duh. It was mentioned before that this award typically goes to the best player on the best team. More specifically, the MVP has led his team to a division title in 18 of the last 20 seasons. The average win total over the last 20 years has been 12.9 wins, with every winner hitting a minimum of ten wins.
While all of the above are important, the one outlier of late:
2nd/3rd Year in New System
Since Aaron Rodgers won his first award in 2011, ten of the 11 winners were quarterbacks. Of those ten, nine were in their second or third year with a new play caller. The only exception? Tom Brady in 2017, the year he served his four-game suspension for deflategate. Carson Wentz was another candidate in 2017, in his 2nd season in Philadelphia, where he suffered an ACL injury in December.
Look back to last year. Aaron Rodgers won it in his third season with Matt LaFleur. The runner-up? Tom Brady in his second season with Byron Leftwich.
Based on these trends, this narrows down the player pool to nine quarterbacks. While that number is still high, not all players hitting the list will warrant a wager this offseason. As mentioned before, I made the mistake of eliminating players who met the criteria. Here are those nine hitting the criteria ahead of the 2022 season.
Reminder: Please bet responsibly and within your means. All odds are via BetUS as of July 1st. Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Unlikely Candidates:
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
BetUS: +10000
Since Mike Vrabel took over as Titans’ head coach, Tennessee has two division titles and a 9-7 floor. Ryan Tannehill was the leading passer in three of those years, including the two division titles.
However, in Vrabel’s four years with the Titans, they have ranked 31st, 31st, 30th, and 25th in pass attempts. The team’s success has relied heavily on Derrick Henry and the run game. It doesn’t help the team parted ways with former All-Pro receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Tannehill has played extremely efficient at times with the Titans, and will need to do so again to cash in his MVP tickets.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
BetUS: +10000
The Jets return their coaching staff following a 4-13 season, making Zach Wilson one of two 2021 rookie quarterbacks with familiarity heading into year two. They also used two of their first three picks on skill players in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to go alongside second-year receiver Elijah Moore and Corey Davis.
The Jets recent history is not spectacular: their last 10-win season came in 2015 and have not won the division since 2002. It doesn’t help that Tom Brady and the Patriots ran the AFC East for the last 20 years, but now the AFC East runs through Josh Allen and the Bills. If Wilson can lead the Jets past the Bills, it will start by improving his TD:INT ratio (9:11) and touchdown rate (2.3%) from his rookie year. Wilson is a longshot, but I would expect a jump from his rookie campaign.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
BetUS: +8000
Similar to the Lions, the Saints added weapons for Jameis Winston this offseason. They, too, moved up in the first round to select Chris Olave from Ohio State, while signing Jarvis Landry. Michael Thomas is the wildcard: the presumed leader in the receiving room last played in 2020 and just turned 29. He has little-to-no in-game experience yet with Winston, as Winston had just 11 attempts in 2020.
Winston enters his third year with now offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. One trait that has haunted Winston is a high interception rate. In his five seasons with Tampa Bay, Winston’s interception rate was 3.5%, including a 30-interception season. This has dropped to just 1.7% for with the Saints, but on just 172 attempts. Winston’s only averaged 25.2 attempts in his six complete starts with the Saints; that rate of 428 attempts for a 17-game season would be the lowest on a per-game basis since 2009. This likely will increase with the added receiving help, but Winston will still need to reduce turnovers and continue to play efficient to cash his MVP ticket.
Dark Horse Candidate
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
BetUS: +5000
Trey Lance played the least amongst his rookie peers, only appearing in six games and playing significant time in just three. But we’ve seen this before: Patrick Mahomes had just one start in his rookie year before capturing the MVP award in 2018. Lamar Jackson was used sparingly in the first half of 2018, until earning the starting role in Week 11. He followed up his rookie season by becoming the second quarterback to hit 1,000 rushing yards for a season and the second unanimous MVP winner.
In his two starts, Lance totaled 24 rush attempts for 120 rushing yards. While he does not offer the rushing upside of Lamar Jackson, he will likely finish near the top of quarterback rushing leaders. Lance will also benefit from playing with a great offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan. Matt Ryan’s MVP season in 2016 came in his second season with Shanahan. Pending Deebo Samuel’s contract situation, Lance could have Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle at his disposal. There has been hype around San Francisco with Lance this offseason. At his current odds, he is a dark horse MVP candidate that should be taken seriously.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
BetUS: +2000
The fantasy football community has a different perception of Jalen Hurts than traditional football fans. Traditional football fans may notice Hurts does not fit the mold of a traditional quarterback. He is smaller in size and struggled with accuracy in his first two seasons. And Philadelphia fans likely notice he is under 500 (9-10) over his first two seasons.
Meanwhile, for fantasy football fans:
Hurts’ rushing makes him a fantasy darling. He offers upside to the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
The Eagles are supporting Hurts with weapons. They have used their last two first round picks on receivers, selecting Devonta Smith in 2021 and trading a 2022 first for former All-Pro A.J. Brown. Hurts now has a trio with Smith, Brown, and tight end Dallas Goedert. If Hurts can improve his accuracy in year three, like we saw from Josh Allen in Buffalo, Hurts can have a Lamar Jackson-like MVP season in 2022.
The Favorites
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
BetUS: +1600
In his 13th season, Matthew Stafford tied his best marks for completion percentage (67.2%) and passing touchdowns (41), while setting a career best for touchdown rate (6.8%). He did manage to tie the league lead with 17 interceptions, but it didn’t stop him or the Rams from their path to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
It was noted the special connection Stafford had with Cooper Kupp; he led the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Yet after the Rams traded Robert Woods to the Titans, they managed to improve their receiving room. Allen Robinson made the jump from Chicago to Los Angeles and now plays with the best quarterback in his career. Odell Beckham Jr. tore his ACL in the Super Bowl, but there is a chance he resigns by midseason. With Sean McVay as play caller and a sound duo at receiver to start the season, Stafford has a path to grab the one award he’s yet to claim: an MVP trophy.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
BetUS: +1400
While falling short to Stafford’s Rams in Super Bowl LVI, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a path no one saw coming. Burrow and the Bengals captured the AFC North title while knocking off the Titans and Chiefs in the playoffs. The Bengals have surrounded Burrow with one of, if not the top receiving core in the league.
One concern for Burrow and the Bengals heading into 2022 is the often-mentioned Super Bowl hangover. Teams that make the Super Bowl but fail to win often struggle the next season. Those teams get about a month less of recovery from a grueling season. Their past season success also draws tougher competition the following season; the Bengals finished last in the AFC North in 2020, lining up the Jaguars, Broncos and Jets for 2021. The 2021 AFC North Champion Bengals now face the Titans, Chiefs and Bills in 2022.
We did see Burrow knock off two of those teams on the road to the Super Bowl. And with this receiver crew in Cincinnati, Burrow can repeat as AFC North champions. If they do, Burrow should be in the discussion for the MVP award.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
BetUS: +1000
Drafted in the same year as Burrow, Justin Herbert finds himself in a great position entering year three. He is surrounded by three great pass catchers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Herbert’s averaging just under 40 attempts per contest over his first two seasons, one of the highest marks in the league. Paired with a strong defense and a coach with a unique background (former quarterback turned defensive coordinator), the Chargers are in prime position to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West.
One question I have for Herbert’s path to an MVP in 2022 is if he has a true WR1. Yes, Keenan Allen is underrated amongst league receivers. However, past MVP winners have had one of the league’s best receivers. Davante Adams the past two years with Rodgers. Lamar Jackson’s rushing upside made up for a lack of receiver talent. But Tyreek Hill, Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Jordy Nelson highlight some former MVP’s top receivers. Can Keenan Allen produce to the likes of those greats? If so, and the defense takes the necessary steps to win the AFC West, Herbert will have a case for the 2022 MVP award.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BetUS: +800
The best to ever do it is back for his 23rd season. The 45-year old Tom Brady has already captured a Super Bowl for the Buccaneers, and has the potential to become the oldest MVP in league history.
While Brady’s pass catchers are still strong, this would be down compared to previous years. Chris Godwin is likely to miss the start of the season as he rehabs a torn ACL. Rob Gronkowski retired this offseason. The main targets to start the year will be Mike Evans and former Falcons receiver Russell Gage. Regardless, Tampa Bay plays in one of the worst divisions in the NFC South. If Tampa Bay fails to win the NFC South it would be a major upset. Paired with a great defense, Brady should be able to lead the Buccaneers atop the NFC. Doing so will once again put Brady in the discussion for league MVP.
Place Your Bets Now!
Have a favorite? Disagree? Let’s discuss on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_ and let me know your thoughts!
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