Wild Card Weekend Draftkings Breakdown
Hard to believe the regular season is over but Wild Card weekend is here. Playoff DFS is always a good time. If you’ve never played playoff slates they are kind of a combo of showdown and classic slates. With less games, ownership can be quite condensed and having a low owned high scorer can make a larger impact than larger slates. Target the games you believe will be the highest scoring and don’t be afraid of fading a game completely. For purposes of this article I’ll be using the pricing from the Sat-Sun six game slate.
Game Totals
LV @ CIN 49
NE @ BUF 44
SF @ DAL 50.5
PHI @ TB 46
PIT @ KC 46
ARI @ LAR 49
Team Totals
KC 29.25
TB 27.25
CIN 27.25
DAL 26.75
LAR 26.25
BUF 24
SF 23.75
ARI 22.75
LV 21.75
NE 20
PHI 18.75
PIT 16.75
QB
Tom Brady $7,300
Brady is coming off of back to back games with three passing TDs. He’s averaged 368 yards in those two games. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd most passing TDs per game over the last three weeks which is pathetic considering they faced Washington twice and the Giants. Keep an eye on the weather in this game, there’s rain & wind in the forecast. If the wind gets near 25+ mph I may just lean on the other TB options without Brady.
Joe Burrow $6,800
Burrow finished the season on absolute fire, throwing for 525 yards, 446 yards and four TDs in each of his last two games. He’s averaged 331 yards per game at home this season. The Raiders allowed the 4th most passing TDs per game this season.
Dak Prescott $6,400
After a rough stretch in weeks 13-15, Dak bounced back over the last three games throwing 12 total TDs. He threw three or more TDs in half of his games this season. The 49ers allowed the 4th most passing TDs per game over the last three weeks.
Jalen Hurts $6,100
Hurts will be lower owned and I believe he’ll rely heavily on his legs in this game especially if the weather gets bad. Won’t be heavy on him but definitely need some.
RB
Joe Mixon $6,800
Mixon deserves to be the highest priced RB on the slate, the question is whether the salary is high enough. On a small slate, Sub $7k for the top RB is nothing. He averaged over 20 touches per game this season. He totaled 13 catches in his last two games. The Raiders allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to RBs this season.
Devin Singletary $5,700
Singletary has gone from unusable to a stud scoring in four straight games with six total TDs over that span. He’s had at least 17 touches in each of those games. Buffalo has relied more on the run over the last three weeks running the ball on 47% of plays. The Patriots have allowed the 8th most points per game to RBs over the last three weeks.
Leonard Fournette $5,900
Fournette is designated to return from the IR. If he plays I believe he is the best points per dollar play on the slate. He averaged 27.3 Draftkings points per game in the four games prior to injury. He had at least seven receptions in four of his previous six games. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs over the last four weeks.
Eli Mitchell $5,500
When Mitchell is healthy, he is the clear option for the 49ers in the backfield averaging 19 carries per game. The injury concerns could keep his ownership down a bit which would make him a great play at the price.
Sony Michel $5,400
Over the last six games, Michel has averaged 23 touches. He’s had no less than four targets in the last three games. Arizona is bottom 10 in yards per game allowed to RBs over the last four weeks.
WR
Cooper Kupp $9,000
Do I really have to make a case for Kupp? Just take one look at his stats this season.
Deebo Samuel $8,100
Deebo has scored a TD in seven of his last eight games. He scored eight rushing TDs as a WR. He averaged 22.2 Draftkings points per game and averaged 11.5 touches over his last four games.
Tyreek Hill $7,100
I’m not going to promote Tyreek from a statistical standpoint. I’ll simply point to his ability to drop 50 points and single handedly win a slate. I won’t have him as a staple in my lineups but think his upside at this low of a price merits a few stabs.
Mike Evans $6,900
Evans is coming off of back to back games with seven targets while nursing a hamstring injury. He scored three TDs in those games. He had four games with multiple TDs and 12 games with at least six receptions. I’ll have split ownership between Hill and Evans and might have them both in a larger field lineup.
Tee Higgins $6,300
Give me Higgins at more than $1k of a discount over Chase with just as much upside. After being banged up early in the season Higgins blew up over the 2nd half. Since the Week 10 bye, Higgins has more receiving yards, air yards and a higher target share than Chase. He scored four TDs compared to only two in the first half.
Cedrick Wilson $4,400
The last two games with no Gallup, Wilson had back to back games with six targets and 11 total receptions and scored three total TDs.
Zay Jones $4,200
Since Week 12 Jones has a 22% target share and only one less target than Hunter Renfrew. He has the 5th most air yards in the NFL over that span.
TE
Rob Gronkowski $6,400
Gronk had double digit targets in three of his last four games and only one game in his last eight with less than eight targets. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points per game and TDs to TEs this season.
Dalton Schultz $5,000
Schultz has four total TDs and has averaged 17.85 Draftkings points over his last four games. He had eight receptions in two of those games. He’s tied for the team lead in targets over that span.
Pat Freiermuth $4,200
Three straight games with at least four receptions. The Steelers will have to throw A LOT. Freiermuth should see plenty of opportunities at a price that allows you to spend up at other positions.
DEF
KC $3,300
BUF $3,200
LAR $2,700
Favorite Low Owned
QB
Kyle Murray $7,200
RB
Damien Harris $6,400
WR
Stefon Diggs $7,200
TE
Darren Waller $5,700
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