Week 17 Prop Bets

Happy New Year everyone! Drew and I had an 80-percent success rate last week on our props combined. Looking to keep the fire hot, let’s break into my props for this week!

D’ONTA FOREMAN: OVER 47.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115 1 Unit returns $4.36)

D’Onta Foreman has been a bit hot or cold the last five weeks. Foreman has gone over this rushing prop in two out of the five weeks, with one week one yard shy of exceeding this prop. The reason I like this prop for Foreman is that despite having a few down weeks, he is averaging  61.2 yards a game off of 14 carries and is averaging 4.37 yards per carry. Miami has the No. 13 ranked rush DVOA which is the weak link on their defense touting the No.8 pass DVOA. The thorn in the side of this prop really comes down to whether or not Foreman can breach more than 10 carries this game, the games he was under his yardage total he was also below 10 carries. Also as a fun anecdote here, Foreman has traded off big weeks and small weeks, if the trend continues this is a week he would go ‘big’.

DALLAS GOEDERT: OVER 51.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120 1 Unit returns $4.16)

If you have been following me for a while you know that Goedert has been a prop cash cow. Since Zach Ertz departure Goedert has gone over this yardage total five out of the nine weeks. He actually hit 135 receiving yards the first time they played the Washington Football Team. Washington is ranked No. 27 in pass DVOA and just got brutalized nationally giving up 56 points to Dallas. The last five week Goedert is averaging 11.1 yards per target and 15.71 yards per reception and has averaged 66 yards per game. Those numbers are inflated a bit due to his Week 13 and 15 performances totaling 240 yards in just two games. The thorn in the side of this prop is it’s likely Washington focuses on Goedert as he is the strength of the passing attack for the Eagles limiting his opportunities. 

TRAVIS KELCE: OVER 73.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110 1 Unit returns $4.54)

Travis Kelce continues to establish himself as a top tier tight end in the NFL. He has gone over this yardage total seven times this year and three times in the last five weeks. Over the last five weeks Kelce has averaged 87.6 yards a game, 10.18 yards per target and 15.10 yards per reception. While this is a high yardage total it’s for good reason, the Bengals currently rank No. 22 in Pass DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to the tight end. The thorn in the side of this prop is that the Bengals will go into this game wanting to dominate time of possession, if they can successfully limit the drives for the Chiefs it makes this high yardage total difficult to fulfill.

Money Bag Parlay  $10.00 returns $26.45

Cooper Kupp OVER 106.5 receiving yards

Deebo Samuel OVER 45.5 receiving yards

Jaylen Waddle OVER 70.5 receiving yards

D.J. Moore OVER 5.5 receptions

Darrell Williams ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN

As we head into the New Year I wanted to leave you with a quote my mom said that resonated with me.

“You open yourself to hopeful living by being open to ‘life’s’ surprises.” -David Steindl-Rast

JAYLEN WADDLE: OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (+110 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $5.50)

While some players have contract incentives to meet before season’s end, some have records to chase. Jaylen Waddle falls under that category; his 96 receptions are second most by a rookie. Only Anquan Boldin has more with 101, and while Waddle technically has two more weeks to clear the mark, there will always be the “17-game asterisk” if he fails to hit the mark this week. Plus, Tennessee allows the most receptions to opposing receivers at 14.9 per game. The Dolphins will be without Will Fuller V, Allen Hurns and Lynn Bowden Jr. (IR), and potentially Preston Williams on the COVID-19 list. Expect Waddle to be involved often as he becomes the new record holder for rookie receptions and clears his Week 17 prop bets.

COOPER KUPP: OVER 106.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)

Similar to Waddle, Kupp is chasing history these last two weeks. Calvin Johnson currently holds the record for most receiving yards in a regular season with 1,964. Kupp currently stands at 1,734 entering Week 17, needing 231 to clear Johnson’s mark. Similar to Waddle, there will be the “17-game asterisk” next to the record. Kupp could get close this week as the Rams travel to Baltimore. The Ravens surrendered 404 receiving yards to the Bengals receiver a week ago and 525 yards on 46 attempts for Joe Burrow. Kupp has drawn at least 13 targets in the last three weeks. I expect Kupp to continue his hot streak against a vulnerable Ravens secondary, clearing his Week 17 prop bets.

D’ANDRE SWIFT: OVER 24.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)

Only three teams have allowed over 800 receiving yards to opposing running backs – the Chiefs, Jets, and Seahawks. Seahawks are the only team to allow over 900 receiving yards, allowing exactly 1,000 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Swift has at least three targets in each game this season. While he has not hit this mark since the Week 9 bye, Swift is returning after a month off. I believe Swift will receive high volume against a bad Seahawks defense. Take the over on Swift’s Week 17 receiving yards prop bets.

ANTONIO BROWN: OVER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)

Per Adam Schefter, Antonio Brown is eligible for up to $1 million in contract incentives at the end of the regular season. If he meets these criteria after the next two weeks, Brown will receive $333,333 for each of the following incentives:

• 50 receptions (39 this season)
• 800 yards (519 this season)
• 7 touchdowns (4 this season)

While Brown has two weeks to hit these marks, he has a way to go. And what better opponent to torch than the New York Jets? In Brown’s first game back from injury/suspension, he saw 15 targets. The Buccaneers are without Chris Godwin and likely Mike Evans, leaving Tom Brady with Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and a plethora of young receivers. While the Jets run defense is at the bottom of the league, Brown should be the go-to option in the air on Sunday. Look for Brown to clear his Week 17 prop bets against the Jets.