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Welcome to Britt and I’s Week 16 prop bets series, each week we go head to head with our props and track our past success. Each unit is equal to $5.00’s though this is merely an advisement and we strongly encourage you to bet within your means. If you think you have a gambling problem please click here to get help.
With the holiday weekend and COVID-19 cases spiking around the league, we are limited with picks. Britt and I have lay out our favorite plays currently available and some Week 16 prop bets we are monitoring.
BRITT’S RECORD: 10-9 (+2 UNITS)
JA’MARR CHASE: OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115: 1 Unit returns $4.34)
I believe that this game has a really strong likelihood of going over and being a high scoring shootout this week. The Ravens secondary continues to get more and more limited in terms of reliable starters. Neither defense is strong against the pass and Huntley has shown to be a very competent quarterback. Chase broke his streak of under 50 yards on Week 13 and that carried into Week 14. He then saw a career low yardage total last week against Denver. Chase is the deep play threat and I could really play either yardage total for Tee or Chase but Chase had a lower total so I went with him. The thorn in the side here is that the Bengals are unable to protect Joe Burrow and they take a run heavy approach in the game in order to help alleviate their pass protection issues.
CEEDEE LAMB: OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115: 1 Unit returns $4.34)
CeeDee Lamb has gone over this yardage prop twice out of the last five weeks. He also would have gone over last week had they been in an actual close game. The last three weeks Lamb is averaging 10.6 targets, 6.33 receptions, 9.91 yards a receptions and 66.66 yards a game. Lamb has been the target leader since Gallup has joined Lamb and Cooper. The Washington Football team is currently ranked No.30 on the season and No.16 the last five games for fantasy points given up to the wide receiver position. They are also ranked No. 27 in pass DVOA. The opportunity is ripe for Lamb; the issue is that the front 4 four for the Washington Football Team is dangerous even without Chase Young. Which lies the thorn in the side of this prop, Dak hasn’t looked himself and the Cowboys have had difficulties protecting Dak lately which could limit the upside that Lamb possesses this week.
Christmas Day Parlay $10.00 RETURNS $26.45
ZACH ERTZ ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
JONATHAN TAYLOR ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
ZACH PASCAL UNDER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS
ZACH ERTZ OVER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Names that I am monitoring
Hollywood Brown – the total of this game makes this a very skeptical play, but I think I would easily go over his yarage prop here. The highest number I would bet up to for Brown is 65.5 yards.
Antonio Brown – this one requires minimal analysis. Brown and Gronkowski are the only reliable targets for Brady right now. I could go both ways with this prop, but I think I would lean on the yardage total, I would bet up to 55.5 yards for Brown. I would also flirt with the over 4.5 receptions for Brown.
Dawson Knox – Josh Allen’s down to Sanders, Diggs and Knox as receiving threats. I think Knox has a good opportunity against the New England Patriots. I would bet over his receiving yards up to 44.5 yards.
Mark Andrews – Tyler Huntley is starting. I don’t feel I need to say more but I would bet the over on Andrews receptions up to 6.5.
DREW’S RECORD: 8-12 (-5 UNITS)
ZACH ERTZ: OVER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $8.69)
Kyler Murray is without lead receiver DeAndre Hopkins. In Hopkins’ first absence against Detroit, Zach Ertz saw a season-high 11 targets. On a short week Ertz will get one of the best matchups for tight ends against the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis sees the second most targets to opposing tight ends per game (8.8) and allow the second most receptions (6.4) and most receiving yards per game (67.6). The Colts have allowed over 50 receiving yards to opposing tight ends in five of six games, with the lone game coming against Houston. Rondale Moore and James Conner enter the game with a questionable tag. I’m banking on Ertz to continue this trend of tight ends torching the Colts defense as he clears this Week 16 prop bets total.
DAVANTE ADAMS FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+550 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $27.50)
Not only is Davante Adams celebrating his 29th birthday on Friday, there is a milestone opportunity on Christmas day. As it stands now, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are tied in Packers history for the highest touchdown count (65) between quarterback and receiver. The other duo is Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. Rodgers is currently tied with Brett Favre with the most passing touchdowns in Packers history (442). The Packers typically start slow, but they will have designed setups to break both records. If you want the anytime touchdown prop for Adams, you can currently find it at -135 (1 unit returns $3.70). I’ll roll with the Davante Adams scoring the first touchdown on Christmas day.
JOE MIXON: UNDER 68.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
It feels like an eternity ago when Joe Mixon came off the bye with back-to-back 120 rushing yard performances. He’s followed that up with 54, 58, and 58 rushing yard games and is averaging 3.1 yards per carry in that span. In his last six games against Baltimore, Mixon is averaging 17.8 carries per game but just 56.7 yards per game. Baltimore allows the 8th fewest yards per carry (3.9) and allowing 3.7 YPC since their Week 8 bye. I think we see Mixon’s streak continue against Baltimore as he falls short of his Week 16 prop bets total.
Props to Monitor:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop – Over
As it stands now, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Edwards-Helaire is currently the best skilled position player and gets a matchup against one of the worst rush defenses in Pittsburgh. The Steelers allow the third-most rushing yards per game (120.1/gm) and highest yards per carry (4.9) clip. Pittsburgh has allowed over 180 rushing yards in four of their last six and 5.4 YPC in that span. The Steelers cannot stop anyone, and I would look for Edwards-Helaire to have his way in Week 16.
Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop – Under
It’s been a rough go this season for Barkley. He’s failed to top 70 rushing yards in a game this season and has topped 60 yards just once. Philadelphia has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry over the last three weeks, including 13 carries for 40-yard performance by Barkley. It doesn’t help the Giants are on their third-string quarterback, former fifth round pick Jake Fromm. I would fade Barkley against the Eagles, assuming his rushing prop is in the high-50s.
