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Couldn’t have a better game to kick off Week 15. The Kansas City Chiefs head to LA to face the Chargers in a that could determine the division, the playoff picture and ultimately a 1st round bye. Both teams are coming off of blowout wins. The Chargers won the 1st matchup back in Week 3 by 6 points.
With both teams coming off dominant wins and likely looking to this week, it’s hard to take any data from last week and use it to project this game. Can we trust Palmer to get any play with Allen back? Are Justin Jackson or Josh Kelley getting snaps? If so who gets them? Is Hardman gonna see 30% of snaps like last week or the 9 snaps he saw the previous week? You get the point. There’s plenty of studs but these questions need to be answered to be able to afford them. As the Game Total implies, I think this is an absolute shootout. Herbert will be my highest owned player. I’m going to have plenty of Mahomes and KC pass game lineups. I will however go the other way with the run game. Over the last three weeks, the Chiefs have passed 54.8% of the time and run on 45.2%. Running is how you attack the Chargers. In larger field tournaments I think it makes A LOT of sense to play Edwards Helaire as captain. It’s a contrarian play that saves needed salary.
Injuries to Monitor
Austin Ekeler left last week’s game with an ankle injury. He has missed practice but coach Staley is confident he will play.
Keenan Allen has been cleared from the covid list and it will be worth monitoring if he has any lingering effects but seems to be ok.
Mike Williams has a heel injury but has been practicing. He should be fine.
Jared Cook has a strained quadriceps muscle but has practiced and will likely play.
Donald Parham has a knee injury but just like the rest is practicing and expected to play.
Josh Gordon was placed on the Covid list and will likely miss this game.
Spread: KC -4
Over/Under: 51.5
Captain/ Flex
Patrick Mahomes
$18,000/$12,000
Based on perceptions Mahomes is having a bad season. He’s had a couple bad games but his season is another story. He already has 3,600 passing yards and has thrown for 27 TDs. He has five games with three or more TDs and is averaging 22 DraftKings points per game.
Justin Herbert
$16,200/$10,800
Herbert has thrown for 300 yards in three of his last four games. He’s also thrown three TDs in three of his last four. He’s averaged 29.3 DraftKings points per game over that span. The Chiefs have allowed the 7th most passing yards per game.
Austin Ekeler
$15,300/$10,200
Ekeler has seven TDs in his last four games and 16 total TDs this season. That’s double the TDs of any positional player in this game. Oh by the way of he’s your captain, you get nine points per TD.
Travis Kelce
$12,900/$8,600
Kelce isnt having his best season but he’s still leading TEs in targets and yards after the catch. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 9 and it’s hard to see that continuing. The Chargers give up the 7th most points per game to TEs.
The Rest
Keenan Allen $9,400
Allen is averaging 10.3 targets per game. He has at least six catches in nine of twelve games. He’s averaging seven catches for 77 yards this season.
Tyreek Hill $11,400
Hill is 2nd in targets and 4th in air yards despite a few down weeks. The Chargers have been good against the pass but Hill has 30 point upside against anyone. I’m not confident enough to use him at captain but have no concerns playing him at flex.
Clyde Edwards Helaire $7,000
CEH has scored three total TDs and averaged 14.6 touches in the three games since returning from injury. The Chargers have allowed the 3rd most rushing TDs per game and the 2nd most rushing yards per game this season.
Mike Williams $7,400
Williams leads the chargers in air yards and has no less than six targets in five straight games. The Chiefs allow the 7th most receiving yards per game.
Darrel Williams $3,200
Since CEH has returned, Williams” touches have significantly diminished totalling only 19 touches in the last three games. He’s been efficient on those touches averaging 7.6 yards per touch and scoring a TD last week. With so much attention on Hill & Kelce, Williams can be useful at this salary against the Chargers who’ve allowed the 2nd most yards per carry.
Jared Cook $5,400
Cook has two TDs in his last three games with 14 targets over that span. The Chiefs are bottom eight in points per game allowed to TEs.
Byron Pringle $2,600
Pringle is playing the most snaps of KC WRs outside of Hill. He’s averaging 17.9 yards per catch over his past four games.
Jalen Guyton $4,800
Guyton is the deep threat for the Chargers averaging 22.2 yards per catch over the last three games and scoring two TDs over that span.
Justin Jackson $2,000
Josh Kelley $800
These two are basically unusable unless Ekeler is out. Jackson does get some usage when Ekeler is in and if Ekeler is limited at all Jackson could see eight touches.
