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WEEK 14 PROP BETS
Welcome to Britt and I’s Week 14 prop bets series, each week we go head to head with our props and track our past success. Each unit is equal to $5.00’s though this is merely an advisement and we strongly encourage you to bet within your means. If you think you have a gambling problem please click here to get help.
BRITT’S PROPS: 8-6 (+2 UNIT)
DAVIS MILLS: UNDER 216.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.36)
The Seattle Seahawks are currently ranked No. 16 in the last five games against the fantasy quarterback. The Seahawks are no longer a run and pass funnel team, they are a run funnel team, which bodes well for this prop. Looking beyond game script possibilities Davis Mills has six starts to his name right now, he has gone over this yardage total 50-percent of the time. In two of those games he went over. Those games finished within a six point differential, a scenario I don’t think will happen this weekend. The thorn in the side of this prop is that there are a few coverage breakdowns allowing Mills to connect with Cooks for big gains.
ZACK MOSS – UNDER 20.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120 – 1 Unit returns $4.36)
In the last five weeks Zack Moss has gone over this rushing total twice. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers the last five weeks rank No.23 against the fantasy runningback. The problem for the Bills is that this game script doesn’t seem to offer many chances for Zack Moss to get a lot of attempts. The current total for this game from Vegas is 53.5, projecting a high scoring affair. Meaning that Moss, who is the Bills short yardage back won’t have as many attempts. Last week Moss got more opportunities due to Breida having a fumble, but Breida was only in the dog house temporarily. Moss is currently averaging 3.16 yards per carry this year and the last five weeks is averaging 2.50 yards per carry. Moss is averaging 5.8 attempts per game which projects him to have a yardage total of 14.5 rush yards. The thorn in the side of this prop is that with such a low yardage total one ten yard carry can put this total over through the course of the game.
JA’MARR CHASE & TEE HIGGINS: OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.36 per play)
These yardage totals are low for both Higgins and Chase, probably because of Joe Burrow trying to test the limits of his pinky’s ability to bend without tearing off. The 49ers currently rank No. 28 against fantasy wide receivers in the last five weeks and rank No.17 in pass DVOA. Higgins is an easier sell on this prop, the last five week he has gone over this yardage total four times. Higgins is red hot and against a putrid secondary I don’t anticipate that changing this week. Chase is a bit more difficult, the last five weeks Chase has not gone over this total. The deep ball connection between him and Burrow has been missing since Week 8. The good news is that the attempts and accuracy have not wavered, just the completions. Just last week, Chase would have beaten this total had he been able to catch the ball and not turn it into a circus interception. That is what I am aiming for this week, all this prop needs is for Chase to connect on just one of those deep balls. The thorn in the side of these props are the Bengals have been running lately and that, compiled with Burrow’s finger disrupting his ability to deliver the ball accurately may impact the ability for the receivers to hit the over.
DREW’S PROPS: 6-10 (-4 UNITS)
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 73.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $8.69)
While some of the top tight end matchups (Eagles, Colts) are on byes, Travis Kelce hits the Week 14 jackpot. The Raiders defense sees the second most targets to opposing tight ends (8.8/gm). Las Vegas allows the fourth most receptions per game (6.1) and most yards per game (67.8). Since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs starter in 2018, Kelce has averaged 7.6 receptions on 10.3 targets for 111.6 yards. In those seven games, Kelce has recorded at least 90 yards in six. I’m banking on Kelce’s streak against the Raiders to continue as he clears his Week 14 prop bets total.
MATT RYAN UNDER 230.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Matt Ryan has the difficult task of traveling to Carolina as the Panthers come off their bye. The Panthers are one of two teams (Bills) that surrender under 200 passing yards per game. One of the seven teams that failed to pass for 200 yards were the Falcons in Week 8. Matt Ryan has failed to throw for over 200 passing yards in four of six. Without Ridley post bye, Ryan is averaging just 7.1 YPA and under 30 attempts per game. The struggle should continue for Ryan in 2021, falling short of is Week 14 prop bets total.
ALVIN KAMARA OVER 68.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
Alvin Kamara returns from a three-game absence to one of the ideal rushing matchups of Week 14. The Jets rank fourth in attempts per game (25.5), YPC (4.6) and third in yards per game (117.6). Mark Ingram (reserve/COVID-19 list) is inactive, leaving Tony Jones as the Saints backup. In Tony Jones’ last two games, he’s totaled 19 carries for just 29 yards (1.5 YPC). I’m expecting the Saints to use Kamara early and often as a warmup game before taking on the Buccaneers in Week 15.
AARON RODGERS UNDER 254.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, but his stats have been underwhelming in his dominance of his divisional foe. Since Matt LaFleur joined the Packers in 2019, Rodgers averages 27.8 attempts against the Bears; in his 21 previous games, he averaged 32.2. Teams don’t often air it out against Chicago as they see the second fewest pass attempts per game (29.7). Randall Cobb was just lost indefinitely due to a groin injury. Look for Rodgers and the Packers to continue owning the Bears, but Rodgers to fall short of the Week 14 prop bet over/under.
