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Week 12 Prop Bets
Welcome to Drew and I’s prop bet series, each week we go head to head with our props and track our past success. Each unit is equal to $5.00’s though this is merely an advisement and we strongly encourage you to bet within your means. If you think you have a gambling problem please click here to get help.
Britt’s Props: 5-2 (+3 Units)
MILES SANDERS: OVER 81.5 TOTAL YARDS -115 (2 UNIT RETURNS $8.69)
Miles Sanders returned from injury to a brand new offense, where there is an actual play calling balance. His first week back he returned to see 16 touches for 94 total yards. He did this against the Saints, who ranked No.1 in rush DVOA. This week Sanders is facing the Giants who are currently ranked No.30 in rush DVOA. Since Week 8 the Eagles have averaged 68.57-percent of their plays as a rush attempt. Miles Sanders has seen 50-percent of the carries last week and 32-percent of the total carries. With Jordan Howard on the injured reserve Sanders figures to see more rushing opportunities The thorn in the side here is that Sanders could have another fumble and Sirianni may not give Sanders enough opportunities to hit this yardage total.
ZACH PASCAL: UNDER 36.5 RECEIVING YARDS -115 (1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
On games that T.Y. Hilton has been active Pascal has averaged 13 receiving yards, with two games not registering a single yard. On games that Hilton has registered more than 50-percent of the snaps, Pascal’s averaged 4.5 yards a game. Assuming that Hilton is capable of finish the game healthy, Pascal has been shown to be a non-factor in the passing game. Tampa Bay is currently ranked No.7 in pass DVOA which further makes this yardage total more unlikely to be reached. The thorn in the side of this prop is that Hilton leaves the game early and makes Pascal a necessity in the passing game.
BRANDIN COOKS: OVER 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS – 115 (1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Brandin Cooks has gone over this yardage prop five out of his ten games averaging 65.9 yards a game. The current point total on this game is 45.5 points, which means a lack of pass attempts won’t be an issue. The Jets are dead last in pass DVOA ranking No.32 through 11 weeks. In games that Tyrod Taylor played Cooks went over this yardage total two out of four times. In home games Cooks has gone over this yardage prop three out of the four games. The thorn in the side of this prop is that Brandin Cooks has been hot or cold with his weekly yardage totals.
DALLAS GOEDERT: OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS -120 (1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
This is becoming a foundation pick for me, since Zach Ertz was traded Dallas Goedert has hit this prop three out of the five weeks. Goedert is averaging 55 yards per game since Ertz’s departure as well. Goedert is currently averaging a target 34.37-percent every route run since being the top tight end, which is highest rate on the Eagles. The Giants are currently ranked No.11 in pass DVOA and allow the ninth most fantasy points to the tight end position. The thorn in the side here is that the Eagles get out too a large lead, which would reduce the amount of routes ran for Goedert which would hinder his ability to exceed this prop.
Drew’s Props: 1-5 (-5 units)
D’ONTA FOREMAN: UNDER 46.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNITS RETURNS $4.34)
The Titans waived Adrian Peterson earlier this week and Jeremy McNichols was ruled inactive, leaving D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard as the primary backs. The running back who was most involved last week was Hilliard, rushing seven times (30.4 percent of team RB shares) and seeing a team high 10 targets. Foreman managed seven carries for 25 yards and a catch for 15 yards, but ultimately played just 19 percent of the team’s snaps. He has 23 carries for 84 yards (3.7 YPC) in his three games with the Titans, playing just 24.3 percent of the team’s snaps. Tennessee is now short-handed without Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones, playing at New England with the Patriots gaining three extra days of rest. I think Tennessee struggles, including Foreman.
MILES SANDERS: OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
The Eagles leave run the ball on 64.6 percent of their plays over the last three weeks, the highest mark in the league. 87 of those 128 attempts (68 percent) are by their running backs. Jordan Howard was ruled out earlier this week, leaving the duo of Miles Sanders and Boston Scott to split reps. The Giants are 30th in rushing DVOA and surrender 4.5 yards per carry on the season. Sanders saw a season-high 16 rush attempts last week despite playing just 46 percent of the team’s snaps. We could see this number increase in his second week back against a vulnerable defense. I’m rolling with Sanders’ promising upside in Week 12.
ROB GRONKOWSKI: OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $8.69)
Rob Gronkowski appears fully healthy, practicing in full Wednesday and Thursday while using Friday as a rest day. Excluding the New Orleans game where he left early, Gronk has averaged seven targets per game. Those four games when Gronk played saw four of Cameron Brate’s five lowest usage rates; they were the four lowest usage rates for O.J. Howard. Paired with Brady going back to New England, Gronk’s last five games against the Colts have averaged five receptions on six targets for 79.4 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. The Colts have surrendered at least five receptions to opposing tight ends in nine of 11 games this season and over 50 receiving yards in seven. Look for Gronk to continue his strong play against the Colts defense.
LAMAR JACKSON: OVER 235.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $8.69)
Let’s try this again…Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop has cashed the over in eight of nine games this season. On the road, Cleveland is allowing 8.2 YPA to opposing quarterbacks and at least 280 passing yards in four of five. This is right on par with Lamar Jackson’s home mark compared to just 7.6 YPA on the road. Jackson is in the middle of his highest passing volume season of his career; his best average prior to this year was 26.7 attempts per game. Jackson is averaging 33.6 attempts at home this year and 34.3 per game on the year. He’s reportedly fully healthy and the same can be said about his offensive weapons. There’s no reason to fade Jackson now; go with the over.
Moneybag Parlay: ($5.00 returns $107.82)
J.D. MCKISSIC OVER 49.5 TOTAL YARDS – Seattle is one of the worst teams to defend the running back reception.
EVAN ENGRAM OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS – The Eagles are susceptible to the tight end position. Since Toney and Shepard are out Engram has an opportunity to shine.
JONATHAN TAYLOR ONE ANYTIME TD – Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Every week.
MILES SANDERS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN – Jordan Howard on IR opens up goal line carries opening up oppportunity for Sanders.
TEE HIGGINS OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Though a underwhelming stat line has had incredible opportunity in a game that figures to be high scoring.
