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Week 11 Player Prop Bets Showdown: Britt vs Drew
Welcome to our first ever prop bet collaboration article, each week Drew and I will be giving our four bets prop bets of the week. From this week forward next to our names will be a record indicating how successful we have been. Our bets are in increments of $5.00, by no means does this mean you have to bet that much or little. Please bet within your means and if you think you have a gambling addiction please click here to find out how to get help.
Britt’s Props: (0-0)
Nick Chubb: OVER 88.5 rushing yards (-115 – 2 Unit returns $8.69)
Nick Chubb has gone over this prop four out of his seven games. Nick Chubb is averaging 103 yards per game and with Hunt out he is only expected to get even more carries. The Detroit Lions are currently ranked No. 29 in rush DVOA. The only thorn in the side of this prop is if Chubb gets injured early in the game.
Deebo Samuel OVER 75.5 receiving yards (-115 – 2 Unit returns $8.69)
Deebo Samuel is currently averaging 108.77 receiving yards per game this season. Samuel has gone over this prop six out of his nine games. The Jaguars are currently ranked No. 31 in pass DVOA. The thorn in this prop is if the 49ers climb out to an early and big lead to the point where Shannahan wants to rest his starters.
Dan Arnold Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120 – 1 Unit returns $4.16)
Since joining the Jaguars Dan Arnold has gone over this prop four of his six games, and his last three games have been over 60 yards. Arnold is currently averaging 43.5 yards per game and the 49ers are ranked No. 20 in pass DVOA as well. The game script projects to favor a large amount of pass attempts for Trevor Lawrence which will favor Arnold and his 16.7-percent target share. The thorn in the side here is if the 49ers decide to take away one of Lawrence’s favorite targets and make him target other players.
Antonio Gibson Over 70.5 all purpose yards (115 – 1 Unit returns $4.34)
Antonio Gibson has gone over this prop six of nine games, averaging 74.11 yards per game. The upside with this prop for me is the innate ability for Gibson to take a screen pass and turn it into a 75 yard touchdown at any moment. The total of the game being only 43 brings me hope telling me this will more likely than not be a run dominate game which will play in favor of Gibson. The Panthers are ranked No. 2 in pass DVOA and No. 19 in run DVOA. The thorn in the side of this prop is if Gibson reaggravates his shin injury causing him to lose his projected volume.
Drew’s Props: (0-0)
Elijah Moore: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.34)
As we turn to the second half of the season, one of the rookie receivers emerging as a true option for their team is Elijah Moore of the New York Jets. Prior to their Week 6 bye, Moore averaged just five targets per game; in his four games post bye, Moore has averaged 6.5 targets per game. As the targets per game rose, so has his catch rate. Moore’s catch rate in his first four games was just 40 percent; in his last four, Moore’s catch rate is 65.4 percent. The Dolphins’ secondary has been vulnerable this season, and Moore’s current average depth of target (ADOT) is 11.9 yards this season. With Joe Flacco the starting quarterback for Week 11, I’ll be adding the over for Moore’s receiving yards prop to my card.
Brandin Cooks: Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.34)
Brandin Cooks was touched on in Jeremy Popielarz’s Week 11 Start/Sit article and I couldn’t agree more. We only have a two-game sample size for Cooks with Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback. In those two games, Cooks is seeing 24.1 percent of the team’s target share. Taylor is averaging 38 attempts per game in those two starts and is facing a positive game script for the pass. Tennessee’s secondary has not been standout this season, surrendering on average 16.2 receptions for 212.7 yards to opposing receivers. Cooks is in line for a big game Sunday and I’ll be on his receiving prop over for my Week 11 player prop card.
Lamar Jackson: Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.34)
This will be one of two player props I’m rolling with for Lamar Jackson. His passing yard prop total has cashed on the over in eight of nine games this year. Jackson averages 1.7 more attempts on the road (35.3) than at home (33.6). He’s topped 250 passing yards in five of his last seven games. The Bears allow 8.6 yards per attempt (YPA) in their four home games this year compared to 7.5 YPA in five road games. On top of the spike in YPA allowed in Chicago, the Bears lost elite pass rusher Khalil Mack for the year. I’m taking the over for Jackson’s passing yards prop on my Week 11 player prop card.
Lamar Jackson: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100 – 1 Unit returns $5.00)
While this prop is juiced towards the over, there is reason to look at Lamar Jackson’s under 1.5 passing touchdowns. In Baltimore’s nine games this year, Jackson has thrown a single touchdown in seven. The two he topped this total – Minnesota and Indianapolis – the Ravens were trailing by at least two scores. As a starter for the Ravens, Jackson has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 22-of-59 starts (37.3 percent). This percentage drops on the road, as Jackson has thrown multiple touchdowns in 9-of-29 road starts (31 percent). Baltimore has scored just seven touchdowns in their four road games this season (1.75/gm). Based on Jackson’s history and plus-value, I’m rolling with Jackson’s under passing touchdown for my Week 11 player prop card.
Moneybag Parlay ($5.00 returns $481.04)
I want to preface this by saying parlays have a long history of draining bankrolls. This parlay in particular is meant to be used for fun, and to pick extra props you find tickling your fancy
Jeff Wilson OVER 79.5 rushing yards
A.J. Dillion UNDER 112.5 all purpose yards
Dallas Goedert OVER 43.5 receiving yards
Jameson Crowder OVER 39.5 receiving yards
Tee Higgins OVER 64.5 receiving yards
Devonta Smith OVER 4.5 receptions
Jonathan Taylor 1 anytime touchdown
