START/SIT ASSIST | TRADE CALCULATOR
If you followed me on our Thursday Night Football article then I set the bar extremely high. I intend to break this article into unit tiers, the higher the unit the higher the confidence. I put $5.00 bets as a threshold please bet at your confidence level.
3 Unit Bets: ($15.00 bets)
Dallas Goedert 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS -114 ($28.20 return)
Since the Ertz departure Dallas Goedert has been the main target for Jalen Hurts. The two weeks that Goedert has been the main tight end he has averaged 71 yards, both over the current yardage prop. While the Chargers are No.4 in pass DVOA they rank 25th in fantasy points let up to the Tight End. The thorn in the side here is that Hurts could be overwhelmed by the defense and is unable to sustain drives.
Jarvis Landry 4.5 RECEIVING YARDS OVER -143 ($25.50 return)
Odell Beckham Jr. is not expected to be apart of the Browns any longer. Landry has played in three games healthy and four total. Right now the Bengals are ranked No.17 in pass DVOA and Vegas has the total at 47. Landry is averaging 4.5 receptions a game and removing the game he was injured is averaging five receptions a game. The thorn in the side of this prop is that this season Landry has been banged up twice in game, making him a risky
2 Unit Bets: ($10.00 bets)
Mike Williams over 55.5 rec yards -114 (returns $18.80)
Mike Williams is back to full health after missing time with injury and the books are disrespecting him. On the season Williams is averaging 76.85 yards a game and has hit the over on this prop four out of seven games. Philadelphia has a pass DVOA of No.12, and this game projects to be one sided. Williams has a 1.12 yards per team pass attempt, the Chargers are averaging 40 attempts a game which means Williams floor is 46.8 yards. Prior to injury, he had a 2.26 yards per team pass attempt, which for 40 pass attempts puts his average of 90.4 yards. The thorn in the side here is that the Chargers figure to be in a positive game script the duration of the game, dissuading a large portion of pass attempts.
Marquise Brown 4.5 rec OVER (returns $20.00)
Marquise Brown is having career year, for fantasy purposes he is three dropped touchdown passes away from being the top fantasy wide receiver. This week he is facing the No.3 pass DVOA defense against the Vikings. On the year Brown is averaging 5.28 receptions a game and has hit the over of 4.5 four out of his seven games. Two of those game he did not hit the over were games in which the Ravens won by double digits. The thorn in the side of this prop is the possibility the Ravens having another blow out win.
1 Unit Bets:
Darren Waller 5.5 rec OVER +100 (returns $10.00)
With the tragic incident involving Henry Ruggs and his swift departure from the team, 5.17 targets a game are vacated on this offense. Waller has the highest target share on the team, and vacated targets get funneled to the good players. Waller is averaging 5.5 receptions a game and has only hit this prop once this year. The Raiders are facing the No.11 ranked passing DVOA team in the Giants. The thorn in the side of this prop is the Giants are ranked No.5 against Tight Ends in fantasy, meaning production is not at a premium.
Money Bag Parlay – +6606
Jordan Love 1.5 OVER TD PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Higgins OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS
AJ Dillion OVER 37.5 RUSHING YARDS
Darren Waller OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Jerry Jeudy UNDER 54.4 RECEIVING YARDS
Derek Carr OVER 1.5 TD PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 TD PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
$5.00 returns $335.35
