Mario’s Hot & Not Fantasy Rundown: Week 5
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Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Hot: Robert Woods
Fantasy community, I’d like to introduce you to WR Robert Woods. No, he’s not a rookie. He just finally showed up to play. That’s not fair. Let me rephrase. The Rams finally used him to the potential we know he has. A week after suggesting that he get targeted more, Woods turned 14 targets into 12 receptions for 150 yards. The Seahawks are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so he needs to show me another week of this before I label him a must start, but Thursday night’s game is a good building block.
Not: Seattle Seahawks Offense
This may feel like a cop-out of a take, but let me explain. Russell Wilson hit the middle finger on his throwing hand on Aaron Donald’s helmet following through a throw. As the captain of the offense, Russ’s 4-8 week absence will have a domino effect on every fantasy relevant player on this offense. Until Russ comes back, fantasy value for Carson/Collins, Metcalf, and Lockett need to be tempered.
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons (Wembley Stadium)
Hot: Kyle Pitts
Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Pitts. The rookie #4 overall pick finally had the production to match his potential with Calvin Ridley not making the trip across the pond. Pitts was deployed in several different ways across the offensive lineup, and used his elite athleticism to exploit weaknesses in the Jets’ defense to the tune of 9 receptions for 119 yards and the first TD reception of his career. We don’t know the extent of Ridley’s “personal issue” that held him out of this game, but with TE a depleted position in fantasy, Pitts is a must start regardless of Ridley’s status.
Not: Corey Davis
If you started Davis in your lineup this week, you had dreams of over 100 yards and maybe even a couple of TDs vs an Atlanta secondary that has been suspect this season, to say the least. Instead, you were tricked instead of treated (please don’t unfollow me) into 4 catches for a meager 45 yards. We can expect ups and downs from the Jets offense with a rookie QB under center, but Davis is the one player we expect production from every week due to his talent and target share.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Hot: Alexander Mattison
Dalvin Cook was questionable the entire week with an ankle issue, so the game time decision for him to sit doesn’t come as a total surprise. We also should no longer be surprised at Mattison’s production when filling in for an injured Cook. He continues to perform as a RB1b in Minnesota. This week he totaled 153 yards and a TD on a whopping 32 touches that include 7 receptions. Minnesota has one more game before their bye week, and they may choose to sit Cook one more week. Keep Mattison in your starting lineup.
Not: TJ Hockenson
The Lions’ TE who looked poised for a breakout season early on has continued his disappearing act after Week 2. In the past 3 games, Hockenson has a TOTAL of 8 receptions for 74 yards. He is an elite talent at a bereft TE position, so you almost HAVE to start him if you roster him. We can only hope he gets back to his usage from the first 2 weeks of the season.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team
Hot: Alvin Kamara
AK41 has not lived up to the production he has become known for in fantasy. Maybe this game is a step in the right direction. A week after Kamara was not targeted in the passing game for the first time in his career, the do-it-all RB turned 8 targets into 5 receptions for 51 yards and a TD. In addition to 71 rushing yards and a rushing TD, Kamara put up 29.2 fantasy points, his highest total of the season to date. I roster Kamara in one league, and I keep hearing analysts suggesting selling high. Something tells me Payton knows getting the ball in Kamara’s hands is his best offensive game plan, and I personally think we can continue to see this production moving forward.
Not: Terry McLaurin
Terry wasn’t so scary on Sunday. Marshon Lattimore tends to have that effect on opposing team’s WR1s. In a game where WFT desperately needed their stars to shine, McLaurin put up a mediocre 46 yards on 4 receptions. He still received a team high 11 targets, but was rendered ineffective by the stingy Saints’ DB. Terry gets the porous Chiefs defense next week at home. You’re starting him and hoping for a big bounce back game.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Hot: Davis Mills
Ummm……what? Mills made the NOT list last week, and I even warned you to stay away from all Texans’ offensive players in fantasy. Just goes to show you how unpredictable fantasy football can be. Mills, in obviously the best game of his young career, picked apart a very solid Patriots defense for 312 yards and 3 TDs on 67% completions. The only bad news about this is Brandin Cooks was not the primary target. Speaking of…..
Not: Brandin Cooks
In a game where rookie Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs, Cooks put up a 3 reception for 23 yards stat line, and had less receptions and receiving yards than the Texans’ backup RB David Johnson. This could be the Patriots’ defense keying on Cooks in coverage. For that reason we have to give Cooks another opportunity before deciding how to move forward in fantasy.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hot: Tom Brady
If anyone out there can explain to me how Brady keeps doing this at 44 years old, please enlighten me. It defies logic. 411 yards, 5 TDs, and 0 turnovers on the way to 45 offensive points scored. Brady remains fantasy’s QB1 in his 21st season. Unreal. Brady remains a starter in all formats.
Not: Jaylen Waddle
After a breakout 12 reception game in Week 3, Waddle has a combined 5 receptions for 64 yards in the two games since then. The Bucs boast the league’s worst pass defense, but Waddle was not able to capitalize on that. Posting only 2 receptions for 31 yards. Waddle should be relegated to the bench until he proves worthy of your starting lineup.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Hot: Davante Adams
Chase has a case for this spot with his 6/159/1 stat line, but no one other than Adams should go here. 11 receptions on 16 targets for 206 yards and 1 TD. Davante continues to be Rodgers’ first read on every pass play, and nothing in this game shows that should change. Adams stays productive, even amidst bracket and double coverage. He cannot be covered, and remains fantasy’s WR1.
Not: Joe Mixon
Mixon was able to score a rushing TD, but his day was still not what fantasy owners expected when he was named active right before game time. He split touches with Perine, but ended up with only 11 touches for 33 total yards. That TD saved fantasy owners from a 4 point day, but be on the lookout for Mixon’s practice routine this week. The Bengals didn’t fully trust him on Sunday, and neither should you until he’s cleared.
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Hot: Chase Claypool
I thought about Harris here, who rushed for his first 100 yard day of his career, but Claypool just stood out in this game. Juju was lost to a shoulder injury, and it appears that opened up the door for Claypool and his 5 reception, 130 yards, and 1 TD day. Claypool led the team with 6 targets, and looks to benefit moving forward from the absence of Juju, who is likely out for the season. If for any reason Claypool is on your waiver wire, go pick him up. I also think he’s a buy candidate for the rest of the season, but hurry before he has another big game, and gets too expensive to trade for.
Not: Noah Fant
TE is the position in fantasy football with the least quality depth, so it’s disappointing when a rising star like Fant doesn’t deliver. Playing from behind most of the game, Bridgewater threw 38 passes, but only 4 of those passes went Fant’s way, resulting in 3 catches for 20 yards. You likely don’t have another TE to start in Fant’s place, so just keep him in your starting lineup and hope Bridgewater targets him more.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Hot: Chuba Hubbard
Despite the loss, Hubbard looked like the best player on the field on Sunday with 134 total yards on 29 touches. He’s not exactly Christian McCaffrey, but he looks enough of the part to keep defenses honest. We don’t know the status of CMC. He might be back this week. He might not. Regardless, Hubbard should be rostered in 100% of leagues in all formats.
Not: Jalen Hurts
Hurts eked out the win, and he deserves credit for that, but he was NOT effective out there vs Carolina. Less than 200 yards passing, and only 30 rush yards. His fantasy day was salvaged by two short rushing TDs. Hopefully this is just a blip in the radar. Hurts should remain in your starting lineup based on his rushing value alone.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Hot: Derrick Henry
At this point, I should just pencil Henry in this spot preemptively for the rest of the articles I write this season. King Henry rumbled for 130 yards and 3 TDs on his way to another RB1 finish, and is a full 15 points ahead of the next RB in fantasy rankings. The King is at the top of the fantasy hill, and looks to stay there.
Not: Laviska Shenault
Shenault was a popular waiver wire add, and I’m guilty of lauding for him to be in starting lineups this week in a juicy matchup vs a terrible Titans defense. He disappointed us all. 1 reception for 58 yards where Shenault weaved in and out of defenders saved him from posting a goose egg on the day. I honestly don’t know what to do with Shenault moving forward. Put him on your bench for now until the Jaguars figure out how to utilize his talents.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
Hot: Mike Williams
The Chargers have a new WR1, and his name is not Keenan Allen. This game was arguably the most exciting game on the Week 5 slate, and Williams was a big contributor to that. Herbert found Williams for 8 receptions for 165 yards and 2 TDs on a team high 16 targets. After only 1 reception last week, the Chargers got back on track by targeting the breakout star, and Williams delivered in a big way. Start him with confidence moving forward.
Not: Odell Beckham Jr.
If this wasn’t a get-right game for OBJ, I fear it will never come. Only 3 receptions for 20 yards in a shootout game where Baker threw 32 passes, and the offense put up 42 points. Leave OBJ on your bench for now, but more performances like this, and you might be able to drop him to the waiver wire.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Hot: Bears RBs
It appears the Bears are going to utilize a RB by committee tactic in the absence of David Montgomery. Williams was expected to be the lead back, but actually ended up at an even 18 touch split with rookie Khalil Herbert. The two backs combined for 159 yards on 36 touches in a game that the Bears defense dominated. Williams got the TD out of the two, but this is an interesting split to monitor moving forward.
Not: Derek Carr
Part of the Raiders’ 3-0 start was the lights out play by Carr. So it’s fitting that his last 2 game passing totals of 196 and 206 yards, respectively have ended in losses. Now the water gets murkier with the unexpected (and justified) release of HC and OC Jon Gruden. We have no idea what this Raiders offense is going to look like under a new play-caller. Put Carr on your bench and stream a QB until the waters clear.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Hot: DeAndre Hopkins
This game was much lower scoring than anticipated, so Nuk’s 6/87/1 stat line is what stood out the most. After two straight games of less than 4 receptions and 0 TDs, it was a welcome sight to the fantasy community to see Hopkins catch a pass in the endzone. #10 is losing targets to the emerging rookie Rondale Moore, but he is still a must-start in all formats unless he’s out with injury.
Not: Deebo Samuel
Coming into the week as fantasy’s WR1, Samuel seems to have met his match vs the Cardinals’ defense. A late rushing TD saved his fantasy day, but prior to that, Samuel only managed 3 receptions for 58 yards. A far cry from his play every game previously this season. We need another week to decide if this dip in production is directly correlated to Lance as the starting QB, or if it was simply the matchup.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Hot: Kadarius Toney
The rookie Giants’ WR burst onto the scene Sunday in Dallas, to the tune of 10 receptions for 189 yards. The shifty WR was forced into action with the top 3 WRs nursing injuries. Shepard and Slayton were ruled OUT prior to the game, then Golladay was lost before halftime. Add Toney of waivers in all formats, but stash him on your bench until we can verify this wasn’t just a product of being the only viable option due to injuries.
Not: The Rest of the Giants WRs
I hate to lump them together like this, but no one other than Toney stepped up for this offense. The rest of the Giants’ pass catchers combined for 8 receptions for 89 yards. The loss of Daniel Jones hurts, but Glennon wasn’t completely ineffective. The outlook for this offense is bleak moving forward.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Hot: Josh Allen
For the second time this season, a young and polarizing QB has “gotten the monkey off his back” vs Mahomes and the Chiefs. First it was Lamar Jackson, and Sunday night in primetime was Allen’s turn. The Bills look like the best team in the AFC behind Allen’s 374 total yards and 4 TDs. Allen found 8 different pass catchers on his way to the biggest win of his young career. Allen is fantasy’s QB3 this season, and continued play like this could catapult him to QB1 before season’s end.
Not: Patrick Mahomes
For the second time this season, Mahomes lands in the NOT category. He didn’t play terribly, but he also was not the usual efficient and electric Mahomes we’ve come to know. He has thrown 13 interceptions in his last 13 games. The running game is nearly non-existent, and it appears that defenses have keyed on the passing game. You’re still starting Mahomes, but it appears he’s not the clear cut QB1 that you drafted him to be.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Hot: Lamar Jackson
What. A. Performance. Jackson put the team on his back, mounting a 16 point 4th quarter comeback while throwing for 442 yards and 4 TDs on 86% passing, while also chipping in 62 yards with his legs. The 100 yard rushing streak is over, but I’m sure the Ravens are happier with the win. This is Jackson’s highest fantasy output of 2021, and if tonight was any indication, the rest of the season looks bright.
Not: Ravens RBs
Once again, I don’t like to lump entire position groups together, but man this backfield is disappointing. The Colts sold out to stop the run and end the streak, but dominant running teams find a way to get the job done anyway. The RBs combined for 11 carries and only 24 yards. This backfield is bad for fantasy, as we don’t know who to trust between Murray, Williams, and Freeman. You aren’t starting any Ravens RB until further notice.
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