Week 5 Adds, Drops, Buys, and Sells
What a week! Week 4 was exhilarating but the turnaround is quick. Waivers are running and we have championship rosters to build. With that in mind, here are the adds, drops, buys, and sells to consider making in Week 5.
START/SIT ASSIST | TRADE CALCULATOR
Add Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert
David Montgomery is expected to miss 4-5 weeks after suffering a knee injury in Week 4. That moves former super bowl standout Damien Williams to the RB1 chair. Williams has the all-purpose skill set to be the every-down back in Montgomery’s absence. He’s the top waiver priority of the week. In deeper leagues, you should consider adding rookie Khalil Herbert as well.
Add Trey Lance
If Jimmy Garoppolo misses any starts, Trey Lance will be an every week top-12 option. While playing just one half in Week 4 and struggling as a passer, Lance still managed to top 20 fantasy points thanks to his ability as a runner. Lance looked uncomfortable in the pocket and eager to escape with his legs which bodes well for anyone who rosters him in fantasy. A week of preparation as the starter will only help. Lance is a high-priority add off the waiver wire especially considering he is unlikely to return to the bench if he plays well in Garoppolo’s absence.
Add A.J. Green
Apparently there’s some juice left in those legs after all. Green has been consistently seeing 80-90% of the snaps and 17-19% of the targets. He has scored in back-to-back weeks, including a 41-yarder in Week 4. Don’t expect retro-A.J. Green production, but he’ll make a solid flex play during the bye weeks.
Add Jamison Crowder
Jamison Crowder played 62-percent of the snaps and had a target share of 26-percent in his season debut. He’s not the sexiest waiver wire add, but he’ll be a decent flex or WR3 play to help you navigate the upcoming bye weeks.
Sell Cordarrelle Patterson
Cordarrelle Patterson finished Week 4 as the overall RB1. He’s the second-highest scoring running back on the season. The age-30 breakout is in full force. So why would we want to sell this guy? Because there is no way he can keep up this pace. I’m not saying get out and take what you can get. This is not one of those cases. But if you have league mates who are willing to pay the price of an RB1, you better take that deal and run. Patterson is outside the top-40 running backs in snap share, carries, and opportunity share (PlayerProfiler). The 5.5 targets per game are great—and that’s what we value the most—but Chase Edmonds, Jeremy McNichols, Kenny Gainwell, Nyheim Hines, and Leonard Fournette are all within one target per game of Patterson. The reason Patterson has out-scored them by so much is he is scoring touchdowns at an insane rate. That won’t be sustainable. His value will never be higher than it is right now. Take advantage.
Buy CeeDee Lamb
Week 4 was a dud. Two receptions for 13 yards. Ouch. But before you rage-sell CeeDee Lamb, let me tell you it wasn’t as bad as it looked. First of all, Dak Prescott only attempted 22 passes. Of those, 23-percent went in Lamb’s direction. That’s good. He’s running the most routes on the team and the target share numbers have been consistent week-over-week. The Cowboys have one of the most potent offenses in the league and the window is now open to go buy a piece of it. Make an offer.
Buy Laviska Shenault
Remember when they were telling us to drop Laviska Shenault? I wrote about it here in Week 3. Shenault was seeing targets and is in an offense that is being forced to pass due to lots of negative game scripts. Then, in Week 4, D.J. Chark went down and Shenault was suddenly looking like the alpha in the passing game. He has now seen a target share over 20-percent in three-of-four games, including a season-high 29-percent in Week 4.
Add Samaje Perine
Joe Mixon could miss some time with an ankle injury which will thrust Samaje Perine into the top spot on the depth chart. Perine has proven capable of handling a workhorse role in the past. Don’t forget he finished Week 16 last year as the third-highest scoring running back in fantasy.
Add Kenny Gainwell
Kenny Gainwell is becoming more and more involved in the Eagles offense as the weeks go by. He finished Week 4 with a 17-percent target share which ranked fourth among all running backs. The Eagles are almost refusing to run the ball at this point which should allow Gainwell to continue to play a significant role as the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. The upside isn’t huge, but there’s certainly a place on fantasy rosters for Philly’s version of Nyheim Hines.
Buy Antonio Brown
How close was Antonio Brown from having a big night against the Patriots. A couple deep end zone shots just missed the mark. In his first game back from the COVID list, Brown was the target on 26-percent of Tom Brady’s passes. His 119 air yards were 16th across the league. We follow the targets and the air yards to predict future fantasy production and Brown is checking those boxes. It’s Brown, not Mike Evans, who seems to be the go-to guy when the Bucs need a play down field. We know what this offense is capable of. At least one of these wide receivers is going to have a big performance every single week. Why not Antonio Brown? Get him before his time comes.
Sell Deebo Samuel
I get it. Deebo Samuel has been one of the most productive wide receivers to start 2021. His target share is massive and he’s great after the catch. But if Trey Lance is the starter for a few games because Garoppolo can’t go, it’s hard to imagine Jimmy G ever getting that job back. The fact is, if that happens, we don’t know if or how that will impact the target distribution and pass volume in this offense. Lance could favor George Kittle more. Or even Brandon Aiyuk. He will certainly be pulling it down to run more than Garoppolo. If you can get a similarly productive WR1 back for Deebo, I would do it.
Add Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz scored the touchdowns in Week 3, then came back with the targets and another score in Week 4. Schultz was No.1 among all tight ends in target share for the week. He’s emerging as a weekly TE1 play.
Add Jeff Wilson
Jeff Wilson will be eligible to come off the PUP list very soon. The 49ers backfield is wide open with Raheem Mostert out and anyone yet to claim the RB1 title. We’ve seen Wilson be productive in spurts in the past. If you can stash him for a couple weeks, he’s a sneaky add that could pay off down the stretch.
Hold/Buy Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell Beckham returned to the field two weeks ago. He hasn’t put the numbers in the stat sheet yet, but there’s reason to believe they’re coming. He has seen target shares of 29-percent and 21-percent over his two games. His 144 air yards (42% team share) against Minnesota were sixth for the week. He was an awful Baker Mayfield deep ball away from having a long score at the end of Week 4. The offense should be forced to pass a bit more over the next few weeks, opening the door for more opportunities for Beckham.
Add Kadarius Toney
Kadarius Toney was thrust into a greater opportunity in Week 4 due to multiple injuries down the Giants wide receiver depth chart. Toney played on 78-percent of the snaps and saw a very good 22-percent target share. He looked athletic and capable even if he was a bad reach in the first round. He turned his nine targets into six receptions for 78 yards. He also ran one time for one yard. As long as Sterling Shepard is out, Toney will have opportunity in the Giants offense. He’s far from a priority add, but in deeper leagues he’s an interesting pick up.
Buy Darrell Henderson
I thought Henderson would come back from his one game missed to find himself in a timeshare backfield after Sony Michel looked good in his absence. That was far from the case. Instead, it was Henderson handling 90-percent of the snaps. He has seen target shares of 17-percent and 15-percent over his last two games. He plays in one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses and has one of the most favorable schedules of any running back the rest of the season.
Sell Dallas Goedert
Zach Ertz has out-targeted Dallas Goedert in each of the last two games. Yet, Goedert is still being valued by many fantasy gamers as a must-start TE1. Ertz and Goedert are syphoning targets from each other, capping their ceilings. It’s not like they’re playing in some high-scoring offense that would allow them both to be strong assets. Goedert’s touchdown in Week 4 should allow you to sell high.
Drop Ronald Jones
This is Leonard Fournette’s backfield just like it was during the playoffs last year. Jones has seen a snap share over 18-percent just one time in four games. I know the truthers want to keep believing, but it’s over.
Sell Melvin Gordon
For the first time in Week 4, Javonte Williams out-snapped Melvin Gordon (51% to 49%). We expected Williams to slowly take over this backfield as the season went along and that’s exactly what is happening. Get out before his value hits zero.
Buy Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett had a quiet day after a limited week of practice due to a hip injury. He still managed a target share of 22-percent, a mark he has hit in three of four games. Seattle played with a lead throughout which is why Russell Wilson had a season-low 23 pass attempts and just 149 passing yards. We’ve seen what happens when the Seahawks offense finds themselves in a shootout, which should happen plenty given how poor their defense is. More opportunities are coming for Lockett. Buy the dip from anyone who is worried about a couple down games.
Sell Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara hit a career-high in rush attempts (26) in Week 4. However, he didn’t receive a single target. For a guy that has historically gotten the majority of his production from his involvement in the passing game, this is really bad news. And it’s not like it was a one game thing either. Kamara has not caught more than four passes in any game. The truth is, the Saints are just not passing the ball. They’re doing everything they can to hide Jameis Winston and it’s killing Kamara. If someone in your league wants to pay up for the name and the 26 carries, you need to at least listen to their offer.
