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After three weeks of the season, what have we learned? Sure, we know who has all the touchdowns but what do the rest of the metrics tell us?
I used the data from the Yards Per Fantasy Team Profiles to pull out some key learnings for each team, starting with the AFC.
→NFC Edition
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
There’s optimism about Zack Moss right now but the backfield usage so far this season isn’t much different from the back half of last season. 20-25 carries slightly skewed in Moss’ favour in week 3, a handful of targets to share, and a few games with 3 or 4 carries inside the 10. The hope is of course that it sustains rather than the ups and downs of last season.
Diggs is still getting plenty of targets and air yards, his time will come.
Miami Dolphins
In all but 6 games last season, a running back had over 50% of the rush attempts in Miami. Through 3 games this season, no-one has topped 48%. The good news for Gaskin managers is that week 3 was his highest of the season to date and he started off slow last season as well, including against New England and Buffalo (their first 2 opponents from this season too).
There’s a severe lack of redzone opportunity (for the whole team) and perhaps Gaskin’s biggest problem might be in the passing game where he’s now competing with Jaylen Waddle for short aDOT targets (and we all know who will win that battle)
New England Patriots
Jonnu Smith’s snap shares have been declining over the last 3 games, Kendrick Bourne has been the biggest recipient with his target share ticking up at the same time. Lets see if that translates to points on the field.
New York Jets
Pass attempts have been consistent across the 3 weeks, it’s the rush attempts that are varying the overall play volume.
They’ve had a different player lead the backfield in carries in each of the first 3 weeks
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (excl week 4)
Chase has been the headline maker but in no small part due to the Higgins injury so I’m keeping an eye on that target share when he’s back. In the meantime, Tyler Boyd is quietly the target hog.
Cleveland Browns
Their 42 rush attempts in week 3 was higher than last season’s highest mark while Odell Beckham’s 0.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity) is at an elite level.
Chubb and Hunt unsurprisingly continue to dominate the opportunity share and continue to both be starts.
Baltimore Ravens
Sammy Watkins has been quietly putting up a consistently solid target share through the first 3 weeks but that catch percentage is rough. It’s hard to know how it will shake out but if Bateman is going to step in to that role with better hands, that’s a fantastic opportunity ahead of him.
And despite the downturn in production in the last week, Ty’Son Williams snap share hasn’t really moved.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers had just one game last season with only 1 Touchdown, they have two already this season.
There’s no doubting Najee Harris’ opportunity share, but they need to start working out how to put up points for it to really count.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans
Henry’s target share is nice and a definite tick-up from expectations, but 2020 did see him have some games with 5, 4 and 3 targets so it’s not time to call this a new dawn just yet.
Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks’ WOPR is next level and its translating to yards. He’s a clear number one on this team and despite the quality of the offense in general, he continues to be an obvious start.
As expected, this backfield is a mess and Ingram seems to be running out of steam already after a big start to the season.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman, Michael Pittman, Michael Pittman. Target share, air yards, WOPR all say this could be your last chance to buy Michael Pittman before he explodes.
Jonathan Taylor is getting a lower rushing share than he did down the stretch last season. He’s still the lead back but I hope that the shift of redzone carries to Hines in week 3 was the gamescript and nothing to do with a failure to convert them in week 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars (excl week 4)
Nothing much to get excited about on Jacksonville. Targets are spread around and Robinson hasn’t been getting the dominant opportunity share that he got last season. With Hyde out in week 4 we saw that shift so I’m keeping an eye on what happens when he’s back.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
They’re just about as balanced as you can get over the first three weeks with an interesting stretch of opponents ahead that will really tell us the truth about this Broncos team.
With Jeudy and now Hamler out with long term injuries, the targets are clearly heading to the three main men – Sutton, Fant and Patrick.
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are in a straight up split and I expect that to continue for the time being at least – if it aint broke…
Las Vegas Raiders
Look how even that target spread has been over the last couple of weeks, this is an offense that trusts its weapons and will move that ball around.
We know from the Peyton Barber usage in week 3 but Kenyan Drake has a set role in this offense and it doesn’t matter what running backs go down, that just doesn’t change.
Los Angeles Chargers
Make no mistake, there’s a 1a / 1b situation happening in LA right now, and everyone else is the supporting cast. Ekeler looks great and he gets his points but he’s not getting a big enough opportunity share to propel him in to the upper echelon that some were hoping for this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Just as a word of warning, the last time Tyreek Hill had less than 20% target share for two weeks in a row, he had over 40% in the following week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a good week three but his rushing volume wasn’t abnormal for him and the 5.9 Yards Per Carry isn’t going to be sustainable.
Check out the Team Profiles pages to see all these stats and more updated for each team every single week.
