Dak Prescott & The Cowboys Headline The 5 Best Offenses For 2021 Fantasy Football
Stats and metrics referenced in this article can be found at PlayerProfiler.com.
As we try to build fantasy lineups that can put up big point totals, we need to find the players who have a high ceiling for fantasy production. Targeting players in offenses that are poised to score a ton of points, is one of the best ways to ensure we have a lineup that can produce those spike weeks. I have identified five offenses that I want pieces of on as many of my rosters as possible. Whether it’s their star quarterback, the stud alpha wide receiver, or even the No.2 tight end, I want guys from these offenses on my squad.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are getting back quarterback Dak Prescott which will help propel the entire Dallas offense. Prescott had the offense on a historic pace in 2020 before he went down. They averaged 395 yards (less than 200 with Andy Dalton) and nearly 33 points per game in his five starts. Both the offense and Prescott himself were operating at an elite level of efficiency, scoring 2.64 points per possession (PlayerProfiler.com). They project to be one of the highest pass volume teams in the league again and they garner one of the easiest pass schedules in 2021. With how poor their defense is, and how explosive some of their opponents’ offenses are, the Cowboys will find themselves in numerous shootouts like we saw in early 2020.
That will benefit every member of the offense. Running back Ezekiel Elliott will continue to operate as the team’s workhorse. Though he struggled with efficiency at times last year with a banged-up offensive line and a backup quarterback, Zeke was still top-five in Weighted Opportunities. He was top-10 in rushing yards and top-15 in receiving. Like the rest of the offense, Elliott was producing at an elite level when Prescott was out there. Before Dak went down, Elliott was averaging 107.4 yards per scrimmage and 1.2 touchdowns per game, good enough for over 23 fantasy points per game (PlayerProfiler). The Cowboys’ No.2 back, Tony Pollard, could wind up with standalone value as a flex play/bye week replacement, with league-winner upside if Zeke were to go down.
The return of Prescott will undoubtedly bring a huge boost to Dallas’ ultra-talented receiver corps. Amari Cooper was top-12 in both receptions and receiving yards last year. He was on a torrid pace before Prescott’s injury. He averaged 11 targets and 85 receiving yards per game during that stretch. Cooper’s WR1 status in Dallas is no sure thing, though, with second-year wideout CeeDee Lamb breathing down his neck. Operating from the slot, Lamb undoubtedly would’ve eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie had Dak stayed healthy. The team’s WR3, Michael Gallup, will also be in the mix and should not be forgotten in fantasy drafts. All three of these guys topped 100 targets in 2020 and we could see a trio of 1,000-yard receivers in Dallas in 2021.
Let’s not forget about the tight ends, either.
In place of the injured Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz ran the third-most routes of any tight end and finished with over 60 receptions and more than 600 yards in 2020. He was TE18 on the year in fantasy points per game and his 89 targets were the ninth most at the position. A healthy Jarwin is a far superior pass catcher, so he’ll be able to extend those numbers further upon his return. He is one of the more athletic tight ends in the league with above average speed and burst. Playing behind Jason Witten in 2019, Jarwin was top-12 in Yards Per Reception, No.6 in Yards Per Target, and No.8 in Target Premium. He was also eighth with 2.37 yards per route and top-five in Fantasy Points Per Route (PlayerProfiler).
The weapons are in place for this offense to be the best in the league. It’s the type of weaponry that, when put into the right environment, can put up historic numbers. Dallas has that environment. The defense is terrible. That will force the offense to keep the pedal to the medal most weeks, as they find themselves in shootouts and in comeback mode. We also know they go at a fast pace and run a lot of plays. Dallas has been top-two in plays per game in each of Kellen Moore’s two seasons as Offensive Coordinator. Finally, the return of a healthy offensive line will help tremendously in all aspects of the offense. This is a unit that could realistically be the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.
Cincinnati Bengals
When the Bengals drafted Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in 2020, their hope was he would take the offense—and the team—to the next level. Unfortunately, a torn ACL in the middle of the season halted what was a promising first season. But with Burrow back to health, and the addition of his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals are on the verge of an offensive explosion.
Cincinnati has done a great job surrounding their young quarterback with the weapons he needs to thrive at every level of the field. Tee Higgins played well as a rookie, scoring as a top-15 wide receiver four times before Burrow went down. Chase comes in as one of the best wide receiver prospects we’ve seen in the last five years. Of course, they still have Tyler Boyd who will continue to be one of the most productive slot receivers in the NFL. All three receivers will command a target share over 20-percent. The lack of any tight end of consequence, and the loss of pass-catching specialist Giovanni Bernard out of the backfield, means the targets will consolidate around Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.
We know head coach Zac Taylor wants to unleash these weapons and his stud quarterback. Since becoming head coach, the Bengals have been one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. And it’s not just because they’ve trailed a lot. With Burrow last year, they called a pass play on 63-percent of their plays in neutral game scripts. The offense will revolve around Burrow throwing the ball early, often, and down the field. 650 pass attempts is well in the range of outcomes, meaning Burrow, Boyd, Chase, and Higgins will all thrive.
Let’s not forget about Joe Mixon in the backfield. In six games before injuries of his own, Mixon had a stranglehold on the backfield work. His 81.5-percent Opportunity Share ranked second among all running backs while his 68.8-percent Snap Share eighth. He averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game which included a No.1 overall finish against Jacksonville. Mixon accounted for ⅓ of the team’s touchdowns in the six games he was active. An improved offense, even if pass-heavy, will benefit Mixon too. It provides more valuable opportunities in the form of targets and red zone touches.
I want all of these guys on my fantasy teams.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have built one of the most exciting offenses in the league. We saw a much improved offensive line from 2019 to 2020 and they’re returning four-of-five starters in 2021. They added DeSean Jackson in free agency and Tutu Atwell in the draft to bring back the deep-ball threat they’ve been missing since Brandin Cooks was traded after the 2019 season. Of course, we know they added Matthew Stafford in a shocking quarterback swap with the Lions. Stafford is a massive upgrade from Jared Goff, especially in decision making and arm talent. He will unlock elements of the McVay offense that we have yet to see. The offense will be far more explosive and efficient than 2020, with potential to be the highest-scoring unit in the league. A better—more efficient—offense means moving the chains, which results in longer possessions, more plays, more red zone trips, and more points.
What does this mean for the other elements in the offense?
We had Cam Akers slotted as a top-five running back before his unfortunate injury. Now it will be Darrell Henderson stepping into the RB1 chair. However, we can not just copy/paste what we were projecting for Akers. They are two different types of players and their roles will reflect that. Akers was slated to be the workhorse, three-down threat. The Rams have shown us they don’t believe Henderson is that guy. They made that clear when they used a second round pick on Akers one year after drafting Henderson in the third. Then when Akers was banged up with a rib injury, the backfield was a near-even split with career-backup Malcolm Brown.
They particularly leaned on Brown in the passing game. The risk is the Rams will add someone who will absorb enough usage to prevent Henderson from being the workhorse many are expecting. With that said, there will be a lot of fantasy points to go around in this backfield.
The upgrade from the conservative Jared Goff to the more aggressive Stafford will certainly bring more points to our fantasy lineups. Improvements in the deep passing game with Jackson and Atwell should open up more of the intermediate routes in the middle of the field that slot guy Cooper Kupp does so well on. Kupp will see similar usage to what he saw in 2019 when he was the WR4. That’s quite exciting considering he now has a significantly better quarterback tossing him the rock. On the outside, Robert Woods, who has finished as a borderline WR1 in each of the last three seasons, will also benefit from the upgrade. Both he and Kupp are tremendous values in drafts right now.
We must not forget about tight end. Tyler Higbee was pumped up in 2020 drafts coming off a strong finish to the 2019 season. In four games without fellow Rams tight end Gerald Everett, Higbee went off. He averaged 22 fantasy points per game, 8.5 receptions, 11 targets, and 104.5 receiving yards. It was a monster run that propelled him to a TE8 finish on the year. But for those of us who actually take a closer look at the data, it was obvious Higbee would not be able to replicate his 2019 performance. His splits with Everett in the lineup were shocking when compared to his four games without him.
As it turns out, those who didn’t buy the hype were right. But what is different now that makes him a guy to target in 2021? Firstly, Everett is gone. That launches Higbee up to the TE1 spot all by himself. That’s a great start. Secondly, he will also benefit from the addition of Stafford. A better offense will only be good for Higbee. The offense will undoubtedly make more trips to the red zone, where a guy of Higbee’s size and ability will thrive. He is going at a much more reasonable cost than he was at this time last year, so if you miss out on Kittle, Kelce, and Waller, Higbee is a good option.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks may finally unleash Russell Wilson in 2021. They did it early last season with tremendous results, but oddly shifted back to their old ways in the second half. They made an offensive coordinator change so hopefully that will lead to a better process. Seattle averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game in the first eight games of 2020. As a result, Wilson was a top-10 fantasy quarterback every week until Week 10. Of course, wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett thrived as well. Both finished the season as top-12 scorers on a per-game basis and each had a week where they finished as the overall WR1. A more pass-friendly offense will only benefit these two.
More passing would hurt Chris Carson, right? Wrong. We want the all-purpose back tethered to Russell Wilson. And yes, while Carson is often thought of as a between-the-tackles grinder, he has actually shown us he is a quality weapon in the passing game as well. In 2020, Carson had a career-high 37 receptions (No.18) while playing in 12 games. His 11.5-percent target share was No.16 among all running backs. There is no threat to Carson’s workload for as long as he is healthy. He is locked-in as a consistent low-end RB1/high-end RB2, making him one of the best values in drafts.
While the offense will be pretty consolidated around Wilson, Carson, Lockett, and Metcalf for fantasy production, there are other pieces that we need to consider in the later rounds. Tight end Gerald Everett comes over from the Rams where he set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in 2020. He’ll bring an athletic presence to the tight end position that we haven’t seen in Seattle in quite some time. The propensity of the offense to find the red zone, will open up opportunities for Everett to have top-12 scoring weeks.
Finally, we need to consider rookie second-round wide receiver D’Wayne Eskridge as a deep sleeper. This is a guy who led the nation in all purpose yards per game last year. He’s a true deep threat, as indicated by his 98th-percentile 23.3 yards per reception. We all know Wilson throws one of the most beautiful deep balls in the league, so Seattle was a perfect landing spot for Eskridge. He will be on the field in three-receiver sets and if anything were to happen to Metcalf or Lockett, he would be a must-add off the waiver wire.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins set out this offseason to build around their second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In doing so they added two explosive weapons. Will Fuller comes over to Houston to sit in the WR1 chair. Fuller provides the game-changing impact that this offense so desperately needed. Before his suspension late in 2020, Fuller was having a career year. He was WR7 with 17.2 fantasy points per game. His ability to get open deep will open up everything for this offense. The team also added the speedy Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the draft. He’ll provide another dangerous weapon who can thrive in all quadrants of the field. Of course, they still have established veterans like DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki who have each had highly productive stretches over the last two years.
The upgrade in weaponry will undoubtedly help Tagovailoa take the next step in his second season. We forget how good of a prospect he was coming out of Alabama. We can attribute last year’s struggles to many factors like coming off major hip surgery, missing out on the offseason program due to COVID, and a lackluster group of pass-catchers. Tua is super accurate and he has some rushing ability as well (three rushing touchdowns in 2020). With everything falling into place for him in 2021, it’s not hard to see a season where he throws for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. The offense will be much more explosive and efficient than we saw last season. That means Fuller, Waddle, Gesicki, and Parker are all guys we want to target in our fantasy drafts. And if these guys are going to thrive, then that means Tua will be a breakout performer as well.
Let’s not forget about the backfield either. With the assumption that this offense is as explosive as we’ve expecting, Myles Gaskin is one of the best values in drafts right now. The Dolphins did not feel the need to invest significant assets into the running back position this offseason. They liked what they saw from Gaskin last year and chose to stick with their proven workhorse. Sure, they added career backup Malcolm Brown in free agency and used a seventh round pick on Gerrid Doaks, but neither project to threaten Gaskin’s status in the backfield. Gaskin wound up finishing 2020 in the top-10 in both snap share and opportunity share among all running backs. In 10 games (seven starts), Gaskin rushed for 584 yards on 142 carries (4.1 YPC) and five total touchdowns. He managed to evade 50 tackles (No.16) and had a Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch) of 27.3% (No.13). (PlayerProfiler) The Dolphins used him in the red zone a ton, as he had 42 red zone touches (4.2/game).
He was quietly one of the most effective pass-catching running backs in the league, too. While averaging 4.7 targets per game (13.4% Target Share), Gaskin racked up 388 receiving yards, the seventh most of all running backs. He averaged 9.5 yards per reception (No.1) and his 2.08 yards per route were top-3, as was his 87.2% catch rate. He should continue to hog the backfield touches in one of the league’s fastest ascending offenses.
