Dynasty Value D’Andre Swift or Antonio Gibson?

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Dynasty Value Check: D’Andre Swift or Antonio Gibson?

The class of 2020 could rival the 2017 class of running backs if each live up to their full potential. Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers and Clyde Edwards Helaire all showed promise as rookie ball-carriers last season. Chances are that if you have one of them, then you are extremely optimistic about their future for dynasty purposes.

Despite the amazing outlook for the aforementioned young RBs, the future might be brightest for D’Andre Swift and Antonio Gibson. This is due to the fact that they are incredible pass-catchers out of the backfield. If you are a fantasy vet you don’t need me to tell you that targets are exceptionally more valuable than carries in PPR leagues. Both players are in positions to become dual-threat playmakers for years to come. But which one should we value higher in dynasty? Glad you asked.

Earlier this week I conducted a poll on twitter asking the community which player they preferred:

https://twitter.com/jaltorfer1/status/1421601930028138496

This poll came down to the wire with Swift narrowing out Gibson by receiving 52-percent of the votes. This small sample size from the Twitter community seems to agree with our dynasty rankings. We currently have Swift at RB5 and Gibson RB6 for dynasty purposes. Most fantasy managers are probably happy having either one of them on their rosters. But, which one will ultimately have the better career?

Let’s take a closer look at the metrics:

Metrics	D'Andre Swift	Antonio Gibson
Age	22.5	23.1
Height	5-8	6-0
BMI	32.2	30.9
Draft Capital	2.03	3.02
College Dominator	21.1%	17.4%
2020 FPPG	14.4	14.6
2020 Targets	57	44
2020 Receptions	46	36
2020 Total Yards	878	1,042
2020 Total Touchdowns	10	11

The Case For Swift

As far as age, BMI, draft capital and college dominator are concerned; Swift has the advantage. The dude is just straight up built like a Pro Bowl NFL running back. He already has a year of experience and is the same age as rookie Travis Etienne and younger than Najee Harris, 23. His 57 target share was solid for a RB and could realistically double with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay no longer in Detroit.

Swift had to compete with future Hall of Famer, Adrian Peterson, for touches last year. Peterson dominated the first and second down role for the majority of the season until it was completely obvious that Swift was the superior back. This will not be the case in 2021 as Peterson is no longer with the team.

Former Chargers’ head coach, Anthony Lynn, will take over as offensive coordinator for the Lions. He was able to provide Austin Ekeler with a role that was highly lucrative for fantasy managers who drafted him. Swift’s floor is an Ekeler-type role when the Chargers had Melvin Gordon. His ceiling is a true three-down role that surpasses what we ever saw out of a Los Angeles back.

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The Case For Gibson

Swift has the advantage when it comes to his athletic profile but Gibson was more productive as a rookie. He had more yards, touchdowns and averaged more fantasy points per game. Fantasy points per game is really the No. 1 thing we should value, after all.

Unlike Swift, Gibson stole the show on first and second downs but had to compete with J.D. McKissic on third downs. McKissic is still on the team but we have to assume that Gibson can increase his snap share in year two based on how prolific he was last season.

Gibson has been touted as the “DC CMC” alluding to the correlation between what him and Christian McCaffrey do well. CMC had his best season as a pro with Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. His son, Scott Turner calls the plays for Gibson.

The Winner: Swift

This one is about as close as it gets. Both RBs will be PPR monsters for the foreseeable future. Having said that, I’ll take the guy with an ascending offensive line and a sense of quarterback stability around him.

Swift has the BMI and low center of gravity that should allow him to stay healthy throughout his career. As healthy as a RB can realistically stay, that is.

Gibson’s uncertainty at QB is what ultimately drops him in my mind. Washington is way too good of a team to be in the running for a top pick next season. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the team’s signal-caller for this year but where do they go after that? The Football Team also has a lot more viable options around Gibson. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas should all receive more targets than Gibson. Swift only really has T.J. Hockenson to compete with in the Lions’ pecking order.