In support of: Arians Family Foundation
The Arians Family Foundation motto is “A Voice For Children” by supporting and developing programs which strives to prevent and ameliorate the abuse and neglect of children. The Arians Family Foundation supports CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocates) in making sure that children who are involved in the court system, as a result of abuse or neglect by their families, receive the love and help they need.
Nominated by Corey Buschlen (@FootballStock)
#Project32 Menu
2020 Recap
Division: NFC South
2020 Finish: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South)
2020 Tendencies:
- Passing Ratio: 63% (10th)
- Neutral Game Script: 62% (5th)
- Offensive Scheme: Air Coryell
Personnel Groupings:
- 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 63%
- 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 22%
- 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 5%
- 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 4%
- 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 2%
- 02 Personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3WR) = 2%
- 01 Personnel (0RB, 1TE, 4WR) = 1%
Coaching Room
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Bruce Arians took over as interim head coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 after Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with Leukemia and led the team to a 9-3 record. It is the most wins in NFL history by an interim head coach. That season landed Arians his first head coaching job in the NFL with the Arizona Cardinals. During his five years in Arizona, Arians was 49-30 and led the team to an NFC West Division title in 2015 where they would eventually lose in the NFCCG to the Carolina Panthers. He retired after the 2017 season before coming back to the NFL as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach in 2019. The team would go 7-9 and his quarterback, Jameis Winston, would throw 30 interceptions in a single season. So, what did the Bucs do? They went out and signed Tom Brady and won a Super Bowl in 2020. You could say that Tom Brady and Bruce Arians hit it off rather quickly. The Bucs pulled off a miracle in the off-season by returning all 22 starters and re-signing key players like Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, and Ndamukong Suh. Bruce Arians is known for his vertical passing game that feeds off the downhill running game and there is no reason to change that now. As he once said, “no risk it, no biscuit.” In other words, we are going to take chances, but they will be calculated risks that we feel comfortable taking. If you want to beat Arians and Brady in a big game, you will have to be perfect because as a tandem, there will be very few mistakes to capitalize on.
Offensive Coordinators: Byron Leftwich
Byron Leftwich might call the plays for the Bucs, but this is an offense that has Bruce Arians written all over it with the downhill rushing game complimented by the play-action and calculated shots down field. With Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski this offense is very difficult to stop. Leftwich does not use a lot of the RPO and outside zone concepts that you see all over the NFL and expects the running backs to pick a hole and attack it with confidence. The Bucs added Giovani Bernard who is an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield. There is nothing not to like about this offense with the G.O.A.T. at quarterback, three wide receivers that all have WR1 talent, a future Hall of Fame tight end, and an offensive line that is ranked in the top five heading into the 2021 season. This should be fun!
Overall Rank: 7th/32
OL Room
LT Donovan Smith – PFF 72.6, Pass Blocking 70.0, Run Blocking 72.5
Donovan Smith wasn’t flashy and doesn’t jump off the screen in film, but he’s steady and consistently shows up ready to work. Smith finished the 2020 season with a career high in Overall PFF Grade and has continued to improve every year. The second-round draft pick out of Penn State has only missed two games in his six-year career.
LG Ali Marpet – PFF 80.7, Pass Blocking 71.6, Run Blocking 80.7
Ali Marpet is the highest-drafted player in D3 history coming out of Hobart College and ran the fastest 40 at the NFL Combine in 2015 for offensive linemen. He has 85 career starts during his six seasons in the NFL and finished in the top ten in Overall PFF Grade and Run-Block Grade in 2020. As a former D3 athlete myself, I can’t help but root for this guy!
C Ryan Jensen – PFF 63/6, Pass Blocking Grade 46.3, Run Blocking Grade 73.2
Ryan Jensen has been the weak link on this offensive line and fell off quite a bit from his 2020 production dropping more than 16 points in Overall PFF Grade. He did however, finish 9th in Run Block Grade but must improve on his 46.3 Pass Block Grade. It took Jensen a few years to break in as a full-time starter in the NFL, but he hasn’t missed a game in four years.
RG Alex Cappa – PFF 67.7, Pass Blocking Grade 67.5, Run Blocking Grade 62.7
Alex Cappa was the 94th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Humboldt State. He struggled to get on the field in his rookie season but has started 29 games over the last two years. He finished with a career high Overall PFF Grade in 2020 and has shown improvement every season. The Bucs will look for that trend to continue in 2021.
RT Tristan Wirfs – PFF 84.1, Pass Blocking 82.8, Run Blocking 77.1
Tristan Wirfs was the 13th overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft out of the University of Iowa and made an immediate impact. He graded out as the 9th best tackle in the NFL in Overall PFF Grade, 13th in Pass Block Grade, and 17th in Run Block Grade while starting all 16 games. It is safe to say that Wirfs will take another step in year two and could put himself in the conversation as one of the best tackles in the NFL.
New Toys: Robert Hainsey
Old News: Joe Haeg (12/3), A.Q. Shipley (5/2)
Overall Rank: 4th/32
QB Room
Tom Brady (QB12)
Tom Brady is entering his 22nd season in the NFL and shows no signs of slowing down. There is nothing you can say about Tom Brady that we all haven’t heard at this point. He holds, what seems like, every possible career passing record and his seven Super Bowl wins are more than any other franchise in the NFL. He’s played in 10 Super Bowls, which means he’s played in one almost every other year on average throughout his career. The numbers are mind-boggling, and he continues to play at a high level entering the 2021 season at 44 years of age. As of now, he plans to play two more years and if he can win another Lombardi this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fulfil that promise. He’s simply the greatest to ever do it and I don’t know if we will ever see another player dominate this sport like TB has. Love him or hate him, you must, at the very least, respect him.
Fantasy Outlook
Passing: 650 attempts, 68.2, 5172 yards, 40 touchdowns
Rushing: 25 attempts, 25 yards, 0 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 349.3
New Toys: N/A
Old News: N/A
Position Fantasy Rank: 13th/32
RB Room
Ronald Jones (RB29)
Ronald Jones is the best running back on this roster and I don’t think it’s close from a talent standpoint. He has improved in each of his three seasons in the NFL and finished the 2020 season with 978 yards on only 192 carries with an average of 5.1 yards per carry. Jones did struggle in the passing game and the Bucs have added pass-catching running back, Gio Bernard to the roster. Jones finished the season in the top ten in yards per carry (5.1), yards created (375), and yards created per touch (1.71) while also finishing 12th in breakaway runs (8).
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 226 attempts, 1041 yards, 6 touchdowns
Receiving: 39 targets, 26 receptions, 155 yards, 1 touchdown
Total Fantasy Points: 187.8
Leonard Fournette (RB54)
Leonard Fournette did not play well in 2020 so don’t get caught up in the player we saw in the playoffs. The reality is that he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2020 and has only finished above 4.0 once during his four years in the NFL. Ronald Jones should see the lions share of carries in the run-game and Gio Bernard should see more volume in the passing game leaving Fournette as quite possibly, the odd man out.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 95 attempts, 360 yards, 3 touchdowns
Receiving: 32 targets, 23 receptions, 144 yards, 0 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 90.9
New Toys: Gio Bernard
Old News: LeSean McCoy (10/0)
Position Fantasy Rank: 22nd/32
WR Room
Chris Godwin (WR23)
Chris Godwin was looking to make a big jump in his fourth year in the league, but with the addition of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown to this offense it just never materialized. He missed four games in 2020 and only hit the 100-yard mark once last year. The talent is obvious, and he locks in as a WR2 with WR1 upside every week in an offense that should be very good.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 116 targets, 86 receptions, 1149 yards, 9 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 254.6
Mike Evans (WR28)
Mike Evans seemed to build more rapport with Tom Brady as the season went on and will look to build on that in 2021. He hit the 1000-yard mark for the seventh consecutive season being the first player in NFL history to do that in his first seven seasons in the league. Can he make it eight in a row? Evans set a personal best with 13 touchdown receptions and a 64.2% catch rate.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 109 targets, 70 receptions, 1036 yards, 11 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 239.6
Antonio Brown (WR36)
Antonio Brown looks to have found a home in Tampa Bay after a tumultuous break-up in Pittsburgh and a short stay in New England. Tom Brady saw enough of Brown’s ability when they were both in New England in 2020 to ask Bruce Arians to bring him to Tampa Bay. Naturally, Arians couldn’t say no to the greatest quarterback to ever do it and that decision has paid off. In eight games, Brown caught 45 passes for 483 yards and four touchdowns while averaging over 7 targets per game. Now he gets a full off-season with TB and looks to fully resurrect his career.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 116 targets, 81 receptions, 876 yards, 7 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 210.7
New Toys: N/A
Old News: N/A
Position Fantasy Rank: 9th/32
TE Room
Rob Gronkowski (TE14)
Rob Gronkowski had no problem finding things to do after retiring from the NFL shortly after the 2018 season. When TB landed in Tampa Bay and asked his old friend to come play catch with him, once again, the sales pitch worked. Gronk played all 16 games for the first time since the 2011 season and finished with 45 receptions for 623 yards and seven touchdowns. The four-time First-Team All-Pro will be back in 2021 and it’s possible we see an even better version of The Gronk.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 71 targets, 46 receptions, 640 yards, 7 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 152.0
O.J. Howard (TE41)
O.J. Howard was once considered a “can’t miss” prospect but has failed to live up to the hype. A full season with Rob Gronkowski leading the way, may have been just the kick-start that Howard needed. He only played in four games but got to see up close how Gronk manipulates defenders and uses his big frame to create space while also navigating zone coverage. In the games he did play, Howard averaged almost five targets per game and turned that into 11 receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns. If he doesn’t take the next step in 2021 then its safe to say that he probably never will.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 32 targets, 21 receptions, 301 yards, 2 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 63.0
New Toys: N/A
Old News: N/A
Position Fantasy Rank: 6th/32
2021 Full Player Projections
Make Your Own Projections With Our Template!
Strength of Schedule (SOS): #31 (.451 115-140-1)
2021 Predicted Finish: 15-2 (1st NFC South)
Note: all projections are PPR scoring
