Being a thirty year veteran of fantasy football, I tend to have some hard and fast opinions. Shocking, right? Generally I feel my experience lends itself to a certain level of arrogance, often backed up statistically. Even in the (rare) situation when I am totally wrong, I will defend why my thought process was spot on. Frustrating? Yes. Arrogant? Absolutely. Entertaining? Definitely, which is why I bring you this new weekly column, where I will attempt to defend what seems like an untenable position. In short, I think I am right and am willing to “Die On This Hill”.
AJ Dillon WILL HAVE MORE TDs & CARRIES THAN AARON JONES IN 2021!
First and foremost, I am not an Aaron Jones hater. Let’s just get that out of the way. The dude has been absolute fire the last two seasons. In fact, in my home league of record I owned Jones with the intent of keeping him for his sophomore season. The fly in that ointment? Jones served a two game suspension for substance abuse to start the 2018 season. Foolishly I bailed on Jones in favor of the more highly drafted Jamaal Williams. Oops! Ok, so I am not always right. However, I will tell you why I am spot on with my assessment of Jones vs Dillon.
Jones is a dynamic back that is adept in the passing game and a threat to take the ball to the house on any touch. That much is not in question. What is in question however is exactly how many carries Jones can withstand. Jones hit his high water mark in 2019 with 236 carries. Coincidentally, or not, he also had a staggering 16 touchdowns on the ground. So what leads me to the conclusion that AJ Dillon will have more carries And touchdowns in 2021? Well folks, despite what anyone says, size does in fact matter. So does draft capital.
AJ Dillon clocks in at 6‘0 and almost 250 pounds as a second round pick. Jones is 5’10 and barely 200 pounds as a fifth round pick. Simply put, Jones isn’t built to shoulder 240 plus carries. Consider as well that the Packers signed Jones to a monster extension in the off season and my thinking has Jones with fewer carries, and more catches. Bear in mind I am not arguing more TOUCHES for Dillon, rather more carries and touchdowns.
Dillon will be an afterthought in the passing game, but his red zone looks should considerably outpace his smaller, more highly paid teammate. Why shouldn’t they? Dillon is an absolute freak of nature in the Derrick Henry mold. Though not as tall, Dillon is arguably faster and has more wiggle, while possessing the tree trunk thighs and leg drive of Henry. Jones will undoubtedly take more than one long touchdown and slip screen to the house, but if shorty touchdowns are your thing, in other words if you play in a more standard league or want a rock bottom value that will score double digit touchdowns, Dillon is your man.
While I like to espouse my opinions and ideas with the idea that they are taken on face value, when I present more controversial ones I WILL occasionally provide numbers to support my thesis. Congratulations, this is one of those occasions. I’m not going to dive deep, rather just offer the basics. The Packers had 443 rushing attempts in 2020. Aaron Jones had 201 of those. Certainly a decent enough number.
Aside from Jones, Dillon, and the departed Jamaal Williams, the Packers had 39 non running back carries. We have an extra game in 2021, so add an extra 27 carries to that 443 number. That total comes to roughly 470 rushing attempts for the Pack in 2021. Let’s assume Jones just matches last years 201 carries, which considering his importance in the passing game and his decline in carries the last two years is very reasonable, that leaves 269 carries available. Of course if Rodgers leaves, these numbers jump significantly, which will further cement my thesis, but let’s assume Rodgers stays. If you take almost 270 carries and subtract the miscellaneous carries from 2020, that still leaves Dillon with almost 230 carries in 2021. Considering Dillon is most likely the goal line back, to think he wont lead the team in carries and rushing touchdowns is just ignoring statistics. Don’t ignore stats just because the player isn’t (yet) sexy.
Assessing the stats, looking at the roster, and adjusting for an extra game, its short sighted to think AJ Dillon wont have a significant role in 2021. Aaron Jones will undoubtedly leads the backs in fantasy points, but if you can snag Dillon at his FantasyPros adp of 97, as even a low end rb 2, you will be ahead of the curve and likely very happy with your savvy draft strategy. Thank me later! Drop me a tweet, an e mail, or just good vibes. It’s worth it just to know I DIED ON THAT HILL!
