Michael Carter 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Javonte Williams is the Tar Heels running back everyone has talked about, but his backfield mate at North Carolina finds himself in an optimal situation for rookie season production. Michael Carter shared a near even split with Williams in 2020, when Carter ran for 1,245 yards and an FBS-leading 7.98 yards per carry. He led the nation with 29 runs of 15 yards or more. Prior to that, he led the team in rushing touchdowns as a freshman and accumulated 732 yards from scrimmage in his sophomore season.
As a junior, Carter rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged nearly 25 yards per kick return. Carter proved effective in the passing game as well with three straight seasons of over 20 receptions and a 73rd-percentile College Target Share (Player Profiler). He was a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award in 2020 as the nation’s most versatile offensive weapon. While Carter may not be the fastest or most explosive, he brings a 98th-percentile Agility Score (Player Profiler) to the table.
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The Jets were a prime landing spot for a rookie running back and they chose to go with Carter in the fourth round. The 5-8, 201-pound Carter joins a backfield without any defined roles. Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine, and Josh Adams are 2020 holdovers and Tevin Coleman is all that was added in free agency. Those four combined for less than 700 rushing yards in 2020 so the opportunity is surely there for a newcomer like Carter to seize a significant role.
Carter, a one-cut and go type back, is an excellent fit in the Kyle Shanahan-style offense that Mike LaFleur will be operating. The offense will be improved from what we’ve seen in recent seasons and the opportunity lends itself to an early-career Giovani Bernard comp. Like Carter, Bernard was an undersized back out of North Carolina who found himself in a backfield without an established RB1. He went on to have three straight seasons of over 1,000 yards from scrimmage to begin his career.
Fantasy Outlook
The truth is, though, we don’t know exactly how this backfield will play out in 2021. But Carter’s receiving chops and running style make him a prime candidate to be the top dog for fantasy purposes. It’s hard to imagine Coleman or any of the other Jets’ veterans taking hold of this backfield to the point where Carter doesn’t at least have relevance in PPR. His upside is as a top-24 RB in 2021. In dynasty, we’re looking at a guy who projects to a similar career trajectory as Bernard. He’ll be an RB2 early in his career, with particular appeal in PPR. He’ll likely lose early downs work a year or two in like we saw happen with Jeremy Hill and then Joe Mixon in Cincinnati.
