Round 1 Done: Fantasy Impact
Round one of the NFL draft is in the books, we had some trade ups and downs, as well as six skill players go in the first six picks. It was a wild night as Aaron Rodgers remained a Packer and the Patriots and Bears got their quarterback of the future. Let’s see how each round 1 pick will impact the fantasy landscape moving forward!
Jacksonville Jaguars
With the first and 24th pick of the Draft the Jacksonville Jaguars added the Clemson duo. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are going to south beach together to dominate to AFC South. These two have torched the ACC for three years now, producing 15000 scrimmage yards combined.
Lawrence was a lock for the first pick for months now and was no surprise. He is stepping into a loaded offense and a favorable scheme. The expectation of a top 12 finish is not too much to ask here. With that he should be the first pick in superflex drafts and a first rounder in one quarterback leagues. However with Travis Etienne, we have to ask ourselves are we getting Taylor and Hines or Fournette and Jones. Ether way he may fall to the end of the first round in super flex drafts. As he could struggle to produce RB2 numbers just based on opportunity. However if and when Etienne takes over this back field he will have no problem producing high RB2 numbers! So snatch up all the shares you can if his value dips like this.
New York Jets
With the second pick in the draft the Jets added their franchise quarterback in Zach Wilson. He was a late riser on draft boards this season as torn up the FBS Independent ranks. Wilson led the Independent conference in all passing categories, he will be added to an offensive scheme that should look familiar to that of the 49ers. This will allow him to flourish in my opinion.
Wilson is the day one starter for the Jets, who went and traded up the grab Alijah Vera-Tucker to help build the offensive line in front of him. Who also added Corey Davis and Keelan Cole to Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims to create a top receiving group. They believe in Wilson and have set him up nicely for success. With all this said Wilson should be one of the top three picks in super flex drafts for sure! He should easily produce top 20 numbers if not creep close to those top 12 numbers. With that said the group on the other side of the ball all got a nice bump as well, the Jets offense is going to produce some very solid fantasy relevant players in 2021 so get on the train before its too late!
San Francisco 49ers
With the third pick in the draft the 49ers got their guy, and no it was not Justin Fields. Trey Lance lands in arguably the best landing spot for a rookie quarterback. He was top five in the NCAA in all passing categories in 2019. In 2020 he opted out due to covid-19. However he is very smart with the ball and can use his legs to create when plays break down. His zero interceptions on over 250 attempts along with his over 1000 yards rushing prove this to be true.
With the 49ers Lance is joining a great rushing scheme and a favorable situation that will allow him to succeed early and often. As one of the rawest quarterbacks in this draft we may not see him early in the year. Whoever starts for the 49ers will have a short leash though. Lance has top five fantasy upside if he can refine his passing skills, he should be drafted this way in superflex leagues. He is easily the second or third pick in all superflex leagues. As well as a second rounder in one quarterback leagues. The pass catchers also receive a huge bump, but mostly Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, as Lance will have the ability to stretch the field with his strong arm.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons held onto the fourth pick and added arguably the most talented skill position player in the draft. Kyle Pitts lands here to add to a very potent passing attack. Arthur Smith coming over knows he wants to run a large amount of two tight end set to help in the passing game and run game. So why not add the top tight end prospect in this class.
Pitts has been talked up as the next generational tight end. As a prospect Pitts is the best we have seen since Vernon Davis. He is also going to be a fantasy machine in a weak tight end landscape. Pairing him up with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley makes for a scary offense to try and defend. He has top five tight end ceiling in this offense long term, however if he does not produce this in year one do not panic. Tight ends take time to adjust to the league. However taking Pitts between the fourth and sixth pick in any format league is not something you will regret.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals ignored all the wishes of most fans and analysts which was to add offensive line help at five. They could not pass up on the chance to add Ja’Marr Chase to their offensive and reunite him with Burrow. Chase is one of the most physical receivers in the class and produced over 1700 yards in 2019 with Burrrow at LSU.
This move only increases Burrows value as well as the rest of the offense, the Bengals run three wide receiver set over 70 percent of the time. Chase will slide into the AJ Green role in this offense and create match up nightmares for opposing defenses. As long as the Bengals address offensive line later in the draft this move will pay off big time. Chase is easily the first wide receiver off the board in any format of rookie drafts. He has WR1 upside and a floor of WR2 starting as soon as this upcoming season.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins followed the Bengals lead and reunited a college quarterback with his former weapon. However it was not Devonta Smith, it was Jaylen Waddle. I love this move for the Dolphins as they add an explosive weapon who can play in the slot and outside if needed. He immediately becomes their number one wide receiver in my opinion.
Waddles fantasy outlook is great especially in PPR formats. He has a chance to be a top 15 wide receiver year one. His explosiveness and game speed will wreck havoc on NFL defenses. This will help him become a slot machine for Tua and easily become his favorite target. Waddles target range for superflex drafts should be around pick five to eight depending on league formats. Don’t be the person who misses out on this years version of Tyreek Hill.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles followed suit as while pairing ex-teammates up. They traded up with the cowboys to the tenth pick to add a weapon for Hurts. They added Devonta Smith, this year Heisman Trophy winner as he produced over 1800 receiving yards. Although being slightly undersized and a late declare, Smith has huge upside.
He is added to a very weak wide receiver room where he can become the instant alpha. His route running ability and fluid movements are going to allow him to create good separation at the NFL level. Smith has top 20 upside in this offense however I feel his ceiling may be capped due to the scheme and quarterback. I feel he may struggle to reach the top 12 range early in his career.
Chicago Bears
The Bears made a huge splash as they traded up and got their new franchise quarterback. Bears fans rejoice! Justin Fields lands in Chicago, and I couldn’t be happier. The Bears already have an alpha receiver in Allen Robinson who is paired with a group of young but unproven talents who could be primed for a break out.
Fields is my QB2 in this class and stays there for me, this landing spot is perfect to me. Nagy wants to get the ball out of his hands quick and will be able to use his legs as a weapon. Kmet, Robinson, Montgomery, Cohen and Mooney all should see bumps, both Mooney and Robinson are primed for a serious explosion. They both were impressive at creating separation last season but the quarterback’s struggled to hit them. However moving forward I do not think they will have this problem. Fields will finish as low end QB1 or high end QB2 if he plays all 17 games. He should be the second pick in superflex drafts with out a doubt.
New England Patriots
The Patriots were able to sit and wait as Mac Jones fell in their lap. Jones had an impressive senior season at Alabama. He is now paired with Josh Mcdaniels and Bill Belicheck, can he become the new great Patriots quarterback? We will have to wait and see as he may sit behind Cam for a few weeks.Once Jones takes over I see him as a mid level quarterback who can help your fantasy team. He will most likely never produce high QB1 numbers however. He will have two great tight ends to throw to in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Along with a break out candidate in Jakobi Meyers who came on strong at the end of the season. We will have to wait and see if the Patriots add more talent to the wide receiver room later in the draft. This could really help boost Mac Jones fantasy upside.
New York Giants
The Giants used the 20th pick to add another weapon for Daniel Jones. They Selected one of the best route runners in the class in Kadarius Toney. Toney is a YAC machine and will slot into the Giants slot role along side Golladay, Shepard, and Slayton. He is a versatile weapon who can be utilized in the pass and run game. However as a fantasy asset I am still not sold on Toney.
He had only one year of production at Florida and is a convert quarterback. I worry he will struggle to produce even WR3 type numbers in this offense. This draft stock will drive him up draft boards. I will be fine on missing him in my drafts. If he was to fall into the second round of rookie drafts he is worth the gamble as he could have WR2 upside if he is featured.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers used this years 24th pick on the first running back taken. They selected Najee Harris out of Alabama, this 6-2, 230 pound running back is in store for a large work load. The Steelers voiced the need to establish the run this off season, Harris will be the key cog in this plan.
Najee has top 12 upside in this offense, they are loaded at receiver and tight end. This should create light boxes for Harris to feast off, as well as getting usage in the passing game. Harris will be the first running back off the board in most rookie drafts this off-season. Aside from waiting on Williams landing spot this makes the most sense as he has the best opportunity of a full work load of the top three backs.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens used the 27th pick to add the wide receiver they needed. They added Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman, this is a hold type landing spot for me. The opportunity to be the lead guy is his to take, however it is a low passing volume team. I feel Bateman is a WR2 at best currently unless the offensive scheme changes now that they have more weapons outside.
However Bateman is a great route runner and does well in contested catches. It makes the most sense to play him out of the slot at this level. This is why he is a hold for me, I need to see how the Ravens plan to deploy him. This Landing spot will provide a dip in his ADP most likely and I suggest buying him up late in the first round of rookie drafts.