Top 5 Dynasty WRs
If you played fantasy football last year then you have heard of everyone on this list, but sometimes I feel as if we don’t talk about the guys at the top enough. Personally, I am constantly looking over mine and other’s rankings to make sure I am keeping up on what adjustments I can make to adjust to the market trends. Let’s look at the top 5 dynasty WRs (Per DLF) in the league and whether or not they should still be there!
Fantasy Impact: A Quick Reaction to the Free Agency Frenzy
For each player, the main points I will hit on are what the future holds, what the past has shown us, and my own personal rankings. I utilize analytics heavily when making my rankings, but I also encourage the ‘eye test’ during that process as well. For me, the ‘eye test’ includes watching the games but also the intangibles like a players’ mindset and character qualities. Some tools I will be using to help support my statements are PlayerProfiler, Dynasty League Football, RotoWire, and YardsPer.
(DLF)
After their elite consistency, the first thing that sticks out with these players is the major dip for the older four in 2019. We saw quite the dip in 2019 but there is two reasons for this, and they all bounced back or shot to the top in 2020. The first being injury, Hill and Adams both missed four games. The second is they were rookies, still developing and becoming a part of the offense. It is also important to note that you may want to give an edge to Hill or Adams as they have shown the consistency with longevity. The nice pink dot on the right (with no prior data) would be Justin Jefferson, the clear rookie WR1. Now let’s dive into each player individually!
DK Metcalf – Age: 23 – SEA
(PlayerProfiler)
The Ole Miss product is a complete monster. 90th percentile in every workout metric except his infamous agility. He uses his speed and catch radius to overcome his subpar agility and maintain the ability to separate or just go up and get the contested catch.
(RotoWire)
In this great tool we see just how dominant DK was in 2020. You see the catch rate and drop rate, which often correlate, are not at the level of his other metrics. The catch rate is interesting but when we look at his true catch rate (via PlayerProfiler) we see he finished with 85%. Some reasons for this disparity would be the target quality and Russell Wilson’s second half of the season decline. He does have an insane amount of Air Yards and he leads the team in targets as well as a strong YAC of 5.2.
(RotoWire)
At the beginning of the year Metcalf was on a complete tear. Let’s take a look at a 16-game pace with the first half numbers. 116 targets for 72-1360-14 or 306 FPTs that would have been the WR4 this year. It seemed that Russell Wilson started to struggle with the failing offensive line, and I believe this is what led to his regression in the second half. In that stretch, it felt like Russell had to get the ball out sooner, and this is what led to the routes not developing properly, as well as the slight increase in drops.
The one promising trend we saw in the second half was DK’s increase in target share as Tyler Lockett seemed to fade away after his own promising first half. They only had one lineman start every game in 2020, the rest were all in and out with injuries. I am hoping for Wilson to stay with the Seahawks and for their front office to acquire veteran linemen or some developmental guys in the draft. If Wilson were to be traded to a team like the Chicago Bears, I may bump a player like Allen Robinson up while also lowering DK. Overall I am excited for DK’s future and think he is going to be a star in the league for years to come; My WR5 right now.
Davante Adams – Age: 28 – GB
The overall WR1 in 2020 shocked us all with his dominance. Even with missing two weeks due to a hamstring injury he outscored the WR2 (the WR2) by 20 points.
(YardsPer)
When you look at the TS% by week it is clear that no one poses a threat to Adams usage and his production should continue to be elite. Robert Tonyan, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard (ERFA), and Jamaal Williams are all Free Agents this year, and I am not convinced any of them other than Lazard will be coming back. It would behoove the Packers to go and find someone in the draft to line up opposite Adams but given recent history I am not sure they will.
The last time Brian Gutekunst, the Packers GM, selected a WR in the draft was 2018 with the 133rd overall pick. That player was J’mon Moore who played 12 games with the Packers and had 2 catches for 15 yards with 1 fumble before being released in 2019. All of this is just a true testament to Adam’s elite floor and how well he has done with limited help on the opposite side of the field.
(DLF)
This chart shows how consistent a player was in a certain tier of finishes. As you can see all of these players were very well rounded and rarely finished outside the Top-24 but one bar stands out: Adams. Some of this insane production was due to Aaron Rodgers and his MVP season but it wasn’t like Adams was just a leech. Adams finished with more weeks (9) as a Top-12 receiver than anyone in the league.
In the leagues that you have Adams I am suggesting selling him for players who are younger but have similar upside to be an overall WR1. This is not a move that every dynasty manager is going to be fond of and I understand the hesitation as a contender. Adams is the oldest on this list and we need to take advantage of his price tag while we can.
For example, I just completed a trade where I sent Adams for DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, and the 2.07 rookie pick in a Super Flex league. I accepted this trade because of the philosophy of competitive rebuilding. I took advantage of his WR1 season and translated it into a 23 and a 22-year-old wide receiver who are both a good QB away from having their own dominant season. The 2.07 was a cherry on top as I will be looking for a player like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Brevin Jordan in that area. Remember you do not have to take this advice because Davante should be an excellent WR1 for the next few years, but this is most likely his peak value. For this reason, he is my WR3.. For this reason, he is my WR3.
AJ Brown – Age: 23 – TEN
It is easy to forget that AJ Brown is the same age as DK Metcalf but both of them are young stars, and we should not let one overshadow the other. He is only a few months older than DK but 4 and 5 years younger than Hill and Adams respectively. For this reason, he is going to see a large bump in dynasty value from me and this is definitely something to always look at when ranking your players.
(RotoWire)
When we look at these “Advanced NFL Stats” this, we see similar numbers to what DK was able to produce but with the improved Catch Rate and Drop Rate, albeit by a small margin. I especially love the 6.1 YAC as he can create plays as a ball carrier because of his excellent speed. With the 8th highest target share in the league Brown should have had a stellar season but he fell short of his ceiling due to the passing volume that Titans create.
(DLF)
When trying to figure out why the Ole Miss product was not able to produce there is a direct correlation to the run game. Tennessee was top three in Total Rushing Plays, Total Rushing Yards, and Yards Per Carry. When you are that efficient on the ground, and you have Derrick Henry running the football, it can lead to less opportunities for your receivers. With a 2.3 Points Per Opportunity (PPOpp) he was the second most efficient of these five players but finished behind all of them in points during the 2020 season. This is unfortunate for Brown especially when you look at how many points he could truly acquire if he were given the chance.
Luckily, Henry is aging, and we should see some regression from him which could lead to more opportunities. I am fully expecting with the new OC Todd Downing that Brown will receive more work. From his history with running backs, he excels in passing them the ball but is below league average in rushing attempts. The Titans also have a few Free Agents at important offensive positions and this leads to more targets to become available:
Corey Davis – UFA
Jonnu Smith – UFA
Anthony Firkser – RFA
I believe out of this bunch Firkser is likely to return but even if he does we’re seeing 157 up for grabs. All signs point up for AJ Brown heading into the 2021 season and for that reason he is my WR2.
Tyreek Hill – Age: 27 – KC
(RotoWire)
Every time we look at these metrics provided by RotoWire, all of the elite players seem to excel in every category, except Catch Rate and Drop Rate. I doubt there is a correlation here but I will be looking into this in the future.
(PlayerProfiler)
When looking at Tyreek Hill you must accept that he is a unicorn brought to us by Patrick Mahomes. Coming in at 5’10” and 185 lbs. he is not your average alpha wide receiver, but he continues to produce. As you can see from these excellent efficiency metrics brought to you by PlayerProfiler, Tyreek is Top-10 in all of them. The Chiefs offense essentially runs through him and it can lead to some insane games like his 57.9-point finish in Week 12 last year. Now something that really sets Hill apart from other receivers in the league is his snap count in comparison to the quality of players’ he is competing with.
(RotoWire)
(DLF)
As you can see Hill does not face much competition from his teammates, similar to Davante Adams. Also, like Adams and DK a lot of his teammates are Free Agents:
Sammy Watkins: UFA
Mecole Hardman: 2022 UFA
Demarcus Robinson: UFA
Byron Pringle: RFA
I can see Kansas City entering this draft with the idea of getting a WR, but I am not concerned about any usage that a rookie would take from Hill. If Patrick Mahomes is healthy and playing for the Chiefs the reign of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will continue. Tyreek comes in as my WR4.
Justin Jefferson – Age: 21 – MIN
Let’s take a look at my favorite Wide Receiver to come out of the 2020 class and how he stacks up to these giants.
(PlayerProfiler)
Jefferson had an unreal rookie season where he broke the rookie receiving yards record. He also showed his dominance as a ball carrier with the 8th most YAC. He was able to amass 7 TDs, which is understandably not great, but he did that with only 12 RZ targets. Almost a 60% TD rate when targeted in the RZ is nothing to scoff at. We also need to keep an eye on the growing chemistry between Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. Chemistry is something we can see being predictive factor with the rise of AJ Brown and Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. The Rise of Justin Jefferson is a great video discussing the man himself and it shows some high praise from Cousins.
(RotoWire)
Justin shows a clear path to dominance with how green these bars are, especially in comparison to his counterparts. He doesn’t have as high of a target share as some or ADOT but he makes up for it with the 70% catch rate and 3% drop rate. A high catch rate paired with the low drop rate is something that many people will look for when determining how elite someone will be; A great example of this would be Deandre Hopkins and how he has had HOF worthy career.
Something that I like to look at when seeing how well a player is acclimating to the system is first downs and target share. It can separate who is really the alpha and who is the back up plan, so when Justin amassed 58 first downs and a 26% target share, I fell in love. Thielen was able to accrue 52 first downs and a 24% target share, but for the rookie to come in and show out like that is amazing. JJ also did not start until Week 3 so to see him dominate like this is really something to pay attention to. This 22-year-old highly efficient LSU product is my WR1.
My rankings of the players mentioned:
Justin Jefferson
AJ Brown
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
DK Metcalf
Honorable Mentions
These are some players I wanted to include in this article because they fall into the same tier as DK Metcalf for me. Both players are young but have that great upside everyone is searching for to finish as the overall WR 1 in these coming years.
(DLF)
Both of these players were not able to translate much of their usage into TDs this year and I feel like this was definitely a fluke. They will be getting a lot of looks from their respective QB’s in 2021 and it is only up from here.
Ceedee Lamb – Age: 21 – DAL
I just felt like I needed to mention this insanely young Oklahoma product. He is in a great situation down in Dallas with Amari opposite him to take attention away with Dak throwing him the ball. The plethora of talent in the 2020 receiving class is causing a lot of people to forget Ceedee, but he is my clear WR2 from the class and my WR6 in dynasty.
Terry McLaurin – Age: 25 – WFT
Terry’s situation is superb; He is the only real offensive weapon in the passing game. The only competition he has is Logan Thomas and the Sims (Cam and Steven). McLaurin’s QB situation is only going to improve and he is still young; I would love to see Jameis Winston or Deshaun Watson come to Washington for fantasy purposes. Looking at this realistically we should still see a bump in production with any steady QB, and I would not mind the Football Team getting a guy like Mac Jones or Trey Lance in the draft. Another solution would be Mariota and if they were to acquire him through a trade, they would be able to address their receiving corp. A player like Rashod Bateman or Jaylen Waddle would be interesting in that offense, but I think it could actually help Terry overall. McLaurin with his current situation sits as my WR7.
In closing I would like to state that all of my rankings are very fluid. To expand on that when I began writing this article, I had DK as my WR6 and Ceedee as my WR5 but after this research I realized DK feels like a better bet. I am still watching out for the QB talk in Seattle, Dallas and Washington as that is something that could really shake things up but for now this where everyone stands. I hope I brought some new information to you and you realize why it is so hard to break into the upper echelon of WRs as well as ensuring they can maintain it.
