Every single season there are brand new breakouts in fantasy that provide tremendous value to owners who were lucky smart enough to take a chance on them. These can turn out to be nothing more than a “one-year wonder” outlier season, or it can be the emergence of a legit fantasy stud. This is what to make of the biggest breakouts of the 2020 fantasy season.
*I have excluded rookies from this list
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Josh Allen, QB, Bills
Granted, Josh Allen didn’t come out of nowhere (he finished as the QB10 in 2019, averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game), but you’d be lying if you said you predicted Allen to breakout and finish this season as the overall QB1 in fantasy. The 24-year-old took a major leap in 2020, throwing for 4,546 yards and 37 TDs (both 5th-best among all QBs), while adding another 420 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. Allen, with some help from his new buddy Stefon Diggs, ranked 4th in the NFL with a clean completion percentage of 78.6% (compared to 67.0% in 2019), on a healthy 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt (5th-most among all QBs). What sets Allen apart, however, is his surprisingly stable rushing floor he provides, specifically near the goal line. Allen (8) had more rushing TDs than Zack Moss (4) and Devin Singletary (2) combined, and clearly established himself as Buffalo’s primary goal line back.
Get the full view of the Josh Allen Breakout in our Bills Team Profile!
We knew Josh Allen was a talented young quarterback, but after his monster breakout 2020 season, the ogre himself has as good a case as anyone as the best QB in football not named Patrick Mahomes.
Verdict: Truth
Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers
There wasn’t a more surprising fantasy unit this season than the Panthers’ receivers. The team’s best receiver (and dynasty WR1) DJ Moore had a frustrating fantasy season, but still managed a solid 66/1,193/4 line which resulted in an overall WR21 finish. The versatile Curtis Samuel also turned in a respectable 77/844/3 line, while adding another 200 yards and 2 TDs rushing. The biggest surprise in Carolina, however, (and the reason Moore owners lost sleep at night), was Joe Brady’s insistence on heavily featuring Robby Anderson in the Panthers offense. After never catching more than 63 passes in a single season (way back in 2017), the 27-year-old Anderson caught 95(!) this year en route to the first 1,000 yard campaign of his career. In his first season as a Panther, Robby Anderson saw the 8th-most targets in the NFL (138), compared to Moore’s 118.
With Carolina replacing Teddy Bridgewater, whether it be via free agency or the draft, the smart money is on Moore (who himself is still just 23 years old) to reestablish himself as the receiver to own in Carolina. With a healthy Christian McCaffrey returning to his absurd workload in 2021, and with potentially a rookie QB under center, the Panthers offense will be unable to support another fantasy relevant receiver outside of Moore.
Verdict: Bust
David Montgomery, RB, Bears
While Chicago’s season (outside of Mitch’s NVP award) was pretty much a joke, Montgomery took advantage of the situation around him and ended the season as the overall RB4 in PPR formats. Montgomery was one of the most-heavily involved running backs in fantasy this year, ranking inside the top-five in snap share (76.2%), carries (247), and total yards (1,508). He even added another 54 receptions (5th-most among all RBs) for an additional 438 receiving yards. Even with an abysmal offense around him, coached by who is for my money the most incompetent coach in all of football, Montgomery turned in consistent RB1 numbers week after week. While we aren’t totally sure what the Bears offense will look like next year, we can go ahead and slot in Montgomery for his now routine 240+ carries and stranglehold on goal line work.
I had my doubts about Montgomery, but he has shown that he is as consistent as they come, even if some of his heavy usage can be attributed to repetitive and unimaginative play-calling. The workload, as well as the receiving floor, keep Montgomery as a locked-and-loaded RB1, albeit not a sexy one.
Verdict: Trust
Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
While we already mentioned Diggs’ teammate Josh Allen and his breakout season, the 27-year-old receiver did enough to more than justify his place on this list. After a productive, perhaps infamous, five-year stint in Minnesota, Diggs’ wish of being a team’s alpha WR1 was granted when the Bills traded for him this offseason. And boy, did they use their new toy. Diggs pulled off the WR equivalent of the Triple Crown, leading the NFL in targets (166), catches (127), and yards (1,535). He sported the 4th-highest EPA (+89.8) among all WRs, and averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game (WR3). We new Diggs was super talented, but we hadn’t seen him used like a team’s true WR1 when he was playing alongside Adam Thielen.
His rapport with Allen, along with his individual talent and route-running prowess, make Diggs a no-doubt WR1 for redraft/startup, and you simply can’t name five better receivers for dynasty
Verdict: Truth
Robert Tonyan, TE, Packers
With all due respect to Logan Thomas, it was Tonyan that finished up as the breakout star at the TE position in 2020. While the TE position as a whole took a dip in 2020, despite Travis Kelce putting up perhaps the greatest receiving TE season of all-time, it was still surprising to see Tonyan finish as the overall TE3. Amdst Aaron Rodgers’ MVP campaign, Tonyan totaled a whopping 11 total TDs, which paced all other TEs. While the receptions and yards weren’t necessarily anything for fantasy managers to write home about (he caught only 52 passes for 586 yards), Tonyan’s role as one of Rodgers’ favorite red zone targets (he led all TEs with a 98.1% true catch rate and a target premium of +33.5%, resulting in a +61.3 production premium) simply provides too much potential value to overlook. The presence of Rodgers, specifically his insistence on looking towards his big-bodied TE near the end zone, provides Tonyan with a surprisingly-high fantasy floor for a player as touchdown-dependent as he is. While I would expect Tonyan to put up similar numbers again in 2021, I believe there will be a major comeback from the TE position as a whole, which will cause Tonyan to fall down the rankings. While I think Tonyan will still be a good bet for double-digit TDs again, there are many TEs that should bounce back (or finally break out) in 2021, which would cause Tonyan’s positional value ranking to drop significantly.
I like Tonyan, but if someone in your league is valuing him as a top-three TE for 2021 and willing to throw you a lifeboat and pay TE3 value for him, it’s an absolute smash accept.
Verdict: Fluke (kind of)
