Kicker Problems? Not anymore
Kickers. Probably the most controversial position in fantasy football. One day your kicker gets you 20 points and pulls you from the jaws of defeat; the next week he only gets you two. Sure, some kickers are better than others, but the position is so volatile that it seems impossible to pick the best ones every week. And unless you drafted Justin Tucker, you’re stuck looking at the waiver wire every week for the best options. Luckily for you, I have the solution to all your kicking woes.
Introducing my new Fantasy Kicking Model!
Using machine learning, the model projects point totals for a kicker on any given week along with a range of points that the kicker is most likely to score within. This model factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as FGOE, my own personal kicker evaluation statistic. FGOE, or Field Goals Above Expectation, is a metric that provides more context to each field goal, making it easier to evaluate kickers.
Using these projections, I ran 10000 simulations and reported the number of times each kicker finished in the top 12, top 5, and number one overall that week. Each week I’ll report the top 16 projected kickers along with a few notable exclusions outside the top 16 that you should avoid.
Kickers to Stream In Week 10
Brandon McManus
A mediocre offense vs. a mediocre defense is a match made in kicking heaven. Denver is currently 2nd to last in team success rate, setting Brandon McManus up for many long field goals to cap off failed drives. Denver’s expected heavy reliance on the field goal unit is one of the main reasons that McManus was the highest scoring kicker in 18% of our simulations. His high ceiling and low floor makes him a must start for any fantasy team.
Jason Myers
Jason Myers is currently sitting at the 22nd ranked kicker through Week 9. Fortunately for your team, he will almost definitely be sitting on your waiver wire. Don’t be the one that lets him stay there. Myers has a clear path to being among the top 5 kickers in Week 10, where he placed in 51.89% of our simulations. A fast paced game between the Rams and the high powered Seahawks offense will lead to ample opportunity for Myers to unleash a few bombs through the uprights. Unless you have Brandon McManus, our 2nd ranked kicker should be a locked into your lineup this week.
Kickers to Avoid
Joey Slye
Joey Slye is currently the 11th overall kicker, so chances are he’s starting in your league. Don’t be the guy starting him. Slye isn’t necessarily a bad kicker and he’s performed well in the past. But this week, the Buccaneers defense will leave Slye starving for opportunity. Tampa Bay, despite total annihilation last week, still has a top 5 defense. The Carolina offense simply won’t make it down the field enough for Slye to have a chance.
Matt Prater
When I think of Matt Prater, I think of 55+ yard bombs straight through the uprights. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing many of those this week. Detroit will be in a slow paced game, as Washington looks to take advantage of the 32nd ranked rushing defense. The offense’s low success rate in the red zone may get Prater more attempts, but the lack of overall possessions caps his upside
