DraftKings Week 9: Cheap Plays With Massive Upside
Let’s get right into it, these are some of the top lower priced/high upside plays on DraftKings for Week 9.
Chase Claypool, WR, Steelers
Chase Claypool has been as boom-or-bust as they come. He exploded for 116 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5 to finish as the WR1. He followed that up with a combined five targets and finishes as WR13 and WR99 in Weeks 6 and 7. Claypool landed somewhere in the middle at WR32, catching five of his team-high nine targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday’s win over the Ravens.
Even with Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster playing ahead of him, Claypool has been incredibly efficient with his opportunities. He’s Top-13 in Yards Per Reception (16.3), Yards Per Target (11.0), and Yards Per Route (2.40). He’s top-five in fantasy points per target, fantasy points per route, Production Premium, and Quarterback Rating when targeted. He also leads all wideouts in Target Premium which measures his efficiency in context within the Steelers offense. The point is, Claypool has been awesome when he’s been given the opportunity.
We know he is capable of massive boom weeks and Week 9 has all the makings of being one of those outings. The game has an over/under above 50 and the Cowboys allow sixth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. With Diontae Johnson battling through injuries seemingly every week, the Steelers will lean on their star rookie more often. He is reasonably priced at $5,700 on DraftKings.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
Justin Jefferson is coming off a down week thanks to an explosive performance from Dalvin Cook who scored all four of Minnesota’s touchdowns in Week 8. But before the bye week—when Jefferson was featured here—he caught nine of his 11 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta. He took advantage of a poor Falcons secondary and will look to do the same against the Lions who rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers and who just gave up three touchdown passes to Philip Rivers.
Jefferson has been killing it. He leads all wide receivers in Yards Per Route and Production Premium and is No.3 in both Yards Per Target and Expected Points Added. Assuming Matthew Stafford passes COVID-19 protocols and plays in this one, Jefferson should be more involved in what may turn into a shootout. This game has an over/under of 51 points, one of the highest totals of the week. Jefferson is moderately priced at $6,100 on DraftKings.
Marvin Hall, WR, Lions
This one goes a bit deeper. Literally. Marvin Hall is one of the better deep threats in the league when given the chance. He only caught seven passes in 2019 but six of them went for over 20 yards and five over 30 yards. His career Yards Per Reception average is an incredible 24.6.
We’re definitely playing some Marvin Hall in #DFS this week, right?
Career #YardsPer Reception of 24.6
86% of 2019 receptions >20 yds
31 routes/ 72.7% Snap Share in Wk 8#Vikings pass D is awful – allow 3rd most yds/pass attempt & 3rd most fantasy pts per game to WRs
$3,800
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) November 6, 2020
Hall saw greater opportunity in Week 8 with Kenny Golladay exiting early with an injury. He took full advantage, showing off his explosive ability with 113 yards on four receptions (28.3 YPR). It wasn’t a fluke performance either. Hall ran 31 routes while participating in 72.7-percent of the offensive snaps. Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones are probably safer bets for production but at $3,800 it’s hard to resist the upside Hall brings vs cost. He’s averaged a Target Distance of 22.5 yards with 24.1 Yards Per Reception. Hall will see a Vikings defense that has allowed the third most yards per pass attempt (8.5) and the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
KJ Hamler, WR, Broncos
Another big-play threat with an opportunity to explode in Week 9 is Broncos rookie K.J. Hamler. Hamler caught all three of his targets for 13 yards and the game winning touchdown in last Sunday’s thrilling 31-30 win over the Chargers. The second-rounder from Penn State has struggled to establish himself as a consistent threat in Denver’s offense with recurring hamstring injuries and some backup quarterback play. But with both he and Drew Lock fully healthy together in Week 8, Hamler was on the field for 86-percent of the offensive snaps. He ran 38 routes. Before the injuries, Hamler ran 39 routes with a 100-percent Snap Rate in Week 3.
While he has yet to make the big splash plays we saw in college, Hamler has the speed to get deep and burn any cornerback for a long score. If his Week 8 usage continues, Hamler will have some boom weeks. Week 9 against Atlanta is a great opportunity for one of those outings. The Falcons have been burned all season and have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He’s just $3,400 on DraftKings.
Drew Lock, QB, Broncos
Drew Lock has combined for 81 pass attempts over the last two weeks. He threw for three touchdowns in Week 8 and rushed for one in Week 7. The Broncos are 4 ½ point underdogs with a game over/under of 50 so the pass volume should continue. And there In a dome which is always good for the passing game especially this time of year. The Falcons have allowed a ton of points to QBs this season. Lock him into your lineups at $5,200.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions
We have to keep rolling out D’Andre Swift. Yeah he only had six carries last week but he still led the team. With Kenny Golladay sidelined, the Lions will lean on the run game and look to get the ball into the hands of their most explosive playmaker. We saw in Week six what Swift’s ceiling can look like. I think we’ll see a similar outing against a Vikings team that has surrendered a lot of points in 2020.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington
We’ve talked about Logan Thomas on several occasions this season because the peripheral numbers were there. Now, the production is coming along to match it. Thomas has scored 13.2 and 16.0 fantasy points over the last two weeks. He’ll have an opportunity to continue his streak of top-10 performances against the Giants and with as cost of just $3,700 or TE14 on the DraftKings mainslate.
