Streaming Defenses: Week 3
As Vegas hones in on the correct lines and how home field advantage should be handled in today’s world, I expect these numbers to improve. After week two our numbers are also a bit skewed by touchdowns. Two different tier two defenses scored touchdowns. Without those, our numbers are much better.
Tier 1: 6.4 points
Tier 2: 8.6 points
Tier 3: N/A
Tier 4: 2.4 points
These results are promising to an extent. On one hand, sure we’re not quite hitting tier one out of the park. However I do like that we’re seeing a large gap between the top tiers and the dreadful bottom tier. We’re going to stick with the same process as last week… with a slight tweak!
The Slight Tweak
We’ve talked about how the better a team’s odds, the more their team defense is likely to score. Where I wanted to improve is including those teams that are expected to dominate but don’t quite fit the criteria for a tier one.
Here is where implied points come in. When looking at implied points against, teams who are projected to give up less than 20 points in a game outscore all other favorites by 18%! Moving forward we’ll be exploiting these implied points against as a way to separate certain favorites.
Week 3 D/ST Streaming Tiers
Here’s a quick explanation of the tiers we’re using: Tier one will be all favorites in the 40-43.5 O/U range, all double digit favorites, AND the Monday Night Football favorites. Next up will be tier two which will consist of all other favorites. Tier three will consist of any underdogs that are in games with O/U below 40.
I’ve also decided to order each tier by the favored/underdog amount. The tier criteria will still be what’s listed above, but now the tiers will be ordered to show you who you should target first in each tier.
Note: I’m not including all NFL teams in tiers anymore. It doesn’t make sense to include all the underdogs just to list out all 32 teams. Just know that if you don’t see a team in the tiers, you probably shouldn’t start them.
Tier 1 (No Doubters)
- Indianapolis
- Cleveland
- LA Chargers
- Tampa Bay
- San Francisco
Tier 2 (Remaining Favorites)
- Philadelphia
- New England
- Arizona
- Seattle
- Pittsburgh
- Atlanta
- Baltimore
- Jacksonville
- New Orleans
- Tennessee
- Buffalo
Tier 3 (Low O/U Underdogs)
- N/A
RANKINGS | WEEK 3
