7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2025 College Football Playoff

7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2025 College Football Playoff

We are just days away from the start of the 2025-26 college football season. And while we have just one year of the 12-team playoff format, we do know how crazy the college football season can turn over 15 weeks.

We saw that only eight of the 11 Power Four schools were ranked in the preseason AP poll. SMU, Indiana, and Arizona State were all unranked, with only SMU receiving votes in preseason poll. Indiana and Arizona State were both expected to finish at the bottom of their respective conference.

The current odds via DraftKings Sportsbook to make the 2025 College Football Playoff would have these teams in the 12-team playoff (bold teams have the best odds for their respective conference):

1. Ohio State (Big Ten; -380)

2. Penn State (Big Ten; -330)

3. Texas (SEC; -320)

4. Georgia (SEC; -260)

5. Oregon (Big Ten; -220)

6. Clemson (ACC; -200)

7. Alabama (SEC; -200)

8. Notre Dame (FBS Independent; -180)

9. LSU (SEC; +110)

10. Miami (FL) (ACC; +170)

11. Boise State (Mountain West; +180)

12. Kansas State (Big 12; +350)

So with the preseason polls out and the odds to make the 2025 College Football Playoff available, who are some teams that could create some chaos and surprise fans by taking a seat at the table? Here are my seven favorite dark horse teams to make the 2025 College Football Playoff.

More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2025: A Guide

#19 Texas A&M (+220)

Why Texas A&M will make the CFP: Rushing Offense, Continuity

Texas A&M returns 15 starters, including all five offensive lineman, to a team that led the SEC with 29.4 PPG in 2024. A duo in the backfield with Le’Veon Moss and Reuben Owens, along with a mobile quarterback in Marcel Reed, offers one of the best ground attacks nationally. Add in transfers at receivers in KC Concepion and Mario Craver, this offense can hit you at any angle. The biggest question on offense revolves around sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed: can he take the next step in his sophomore year to take Texas A&M on a College Football Playoff run?

The Aggies defense was a concern at points last year, allowing 19 20-yard runs and had the 13th pass defense in the conference. But they do return eight starters on defense, mainly in the linebacker and secondary levels. Another year in Mike Elko’s system with him still calling plays can propel A&M back into a top-5 defense in the conference.

Why Texas A&M will fall short of the CFP: Reed fails to take next step, SEC Gauntlet

Redshirt freshman Marcel Reed took over the starting job after replacing Connor Weigman a year ago. Reed took over the last five starts, after replacing Weigman and leading the Aggies on a crazy second half comeback with three rushing touchdowns. However, in his last five games, Texas A&M went 0-3 in conference play and 1-4 overall to end the season with the lone win over New Mexico State. Reed threw six interceptions to his nine passing touchdowns (11 total) during that stretch. While mobile, Reed has a smaller frame (6’1, 185 pounds) and was rumored to be injured this offseason. Reed is a big portion of the Aggies gameplan, and a step up in his sophomore year would go a long way to make the 2025 College Football Playoff.

The jump to the SEC back in 2012 has seemingly put a ceiling on the Aggies annual win total. Texas A&M won 10 regular season games in 2012, their first season in the SEC, dominated by Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy season. While being consistent, Texas A&M has failed to reach a 10 win season since. We saw last year: 10 wins is an important benchmark to make the CFP. The Aggies do avoid Alabama and Georgia in 2025. But in order to hit 10 wins, the Aggies will have to win one of their three toughest road tests: at Notre Dame, at LSU, and at Texas – in addition to being perfect the rest of the way. In what could be the best opportunity since Manziel’s magical season, can Elko get the Aggies over that hump in 2025?

Louisville (+310)

Why Louisville will make the CFP: Rushing Offense, Coaching

Don’t look now, but Louisville might have the best running back room in the country. Isaac Brown ranked 5th among running backs in yards per carry (7.1) and 21st in rushing yards (1,173) as a true freshman. His running mate, Duke Watson, wasn’t far behind, averaging 8.9 yards per carry and scoring 7 touchdowns on 67 carries. I would expect both to make a solid jump in their second year at the collegiate level.

Jeff Brohm enters year three having gone 18-6 in his first two regular seasons at his alma mater. Before this, Brohm put together back-to-back 8-4 seasons at Purdue; the Boilermakers have gone 4-19 against FBS competition since Brohm’s departure. All four of Louisville’s losses last year were one possession games (1-4 in such games in the regular season; 5-1 the year prior). He has been a proven winner regardless of his destination, so don’t be surprised if Brohm leads the Louisville Cardinals to a berth in the 2025 College Football Playoff.

Why Louisville will fall short of the CFP: Defensive Concerns, ACC Schedule

While the linebacker group for the Cardinals remains the same, Louisville returns no one from their starting secondary from a year ago. Louisville finished 12th of 17 ACC teams in pass defense a year ago (236.2 YPG; 100th nationally). They also finished in a three-way tie for 14th in passing touchdowns allowed (24) and 87th nationally in pass defense efficiency. I’m sure this has been a priority for Brohm and company moving into 2025, but if this team fails to improve, they likely won’t come close to a College Football Playoff appearance.

Unlike some teams on this list, Louisville does not benefit from avoiding the preseason top teams in their conference. Road games to Miami and SMU could loom large for the Cardinals, and they also host Clemson towards the end of the season. The road trip to Miami at least comes after a bye, but they still play the two teams with the highest odds in the ACC to make the College Football Playoff. 10 wins is on the table and could get them in, but there is little room for slip up for Louisville in conference play.

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Utah (+450)

Why Utah will make the CFP: Devon Dampier, Whittingham History

The days of Cam Rising have finally past for Utah, and they found an electric replacement under center. Devon Dampier transfers from New Mexico as he reunites with his former offensive coordinator, Jason Beck. At New Mexico last year, Dampier was 2nd in the country at 7.5 yards per carry and 9th in 19 rushing touchdowns. He did have as many interceptions (12) as passing touchdowns last year, so that will be an area to improve. But Dampier has the capability of being a top quarterback in the Big 12 this year.

The last two years have been questionable for Utah and Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are 13-11 the last two years in the regular season. Prior to this, Utah was 29-7 over the course of three full regular seasons. Whittingham has won at least eight games 11 times in 19 12-game seasons. And while eight wins alone will not get you an at-large position in the College Football Playoff, it could get them into the Big 12 Championship. Whittingham came back because he did not want to go out on a 5-7 year. This can be the year the Utes get back on track.

Why Utah will fall short of the CFP: Offensive Woes Continue

Utah ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (20.6 PPG) and 3rd in YPG (329.7 YPG). It wasn’t the defense that failed the Utes last year, it was the offense. An offense that was 3rd to last in the Big 12 in scoring (23.6 PPG) and 2nd to last in yards per game (329.8 YPG). Only Houston was worse in both categories. If Utah wants to return to an 8+ win team, Dampier and Beck will have to rejuvenate this offense.

 

#12 Illinois (+500)

Why Illinois will make the CFP: Continuity, Schedule

Illinois finished 9-3 a year ago. They had 27 players last year who played at least 300 snaps; 18 of those players return to the Illini. They return all five offensive lineman, starting quarterback Luke Altmyer, and a good portion of their secondary. Transfer portal help on the defensive line with James Thompson Jr. (Wisconsin), Curt Neal (Wisconsin), and Tomiwa Durojaiye (Florida State) should help as well.

Illinois benefits from a relatively easy schedule in conference play. They avoid Oregon and Penn State, and will host Ohio State at home. Their toughest road game comes at Indiana in late September, but their next toughest conference game should come either at Washington or hosting USC. Avoiding Michigan and Iowa benefits the Fighting Illini as well. A 10-win season based on the schedule alone is a possibility for the Illinois, and how they play against the other two ranked Big Ten teams could determine if they are worthy of an at-large bid for the 2025 College Football Playoff.

Why Illinois will fall short of the CFP: Skill position players

While Illinois has plenty of returning players with significant playing time – including quarterback Luke Altmyer – Illinois loses their top running back Josh McCray (transfer, Georgia) and two top receivers Pat Bryant (NFL Draft; Broncos) and Zakhari Franklin (NFL Draft, Raiders). Illinois does add receiver help from transfer portal addition Hudson Clement (West Virginia), but he is the only returning skill position player with over 20 receptions.

Illinois will also need the duo of Aidan Laughery and Kaden Feagin to step up to replace Josh McCray. While all three split work throughout 2024, no one truly stood out as a dominate back. The retention of Altmyer and the offensive line is great, but does the Illini have the weapons to move the ball down the field against Big Ten competition? This could be the biggest holdup on the Illini’s path to the 2025 College Football Playoff.

More: Fantasy Football 2025: Top Players to Avoid in Early Drafts

#20 Indiana (+500)

Why Indiana will make the CFP: Continuity, Defense

Indiana benefitted from the arrival of coach Curt Cignetti, who has won at every stop along his coaching journey. But more importantly for Cignetti and the Hoosiers was the staff that followed him. This staff has been with Cignetti prior to his arrival at the FBS level. And while Cignetti or many of his coordinators and assistants could have been plucked by a traditional power program, all but one remained in Bloomington (Tino Sunseri took the offensive coordinator position at UCLA). The Hoosiers return three starters on the offensive line, and fill the other voids with senior transfers in Pat Coogan (Notre Dame) and Kahlil Benson (Colorado). Hoosier fans should see plenty of familiar faces, unlike last year’s 25 incoming transfers.

Indiana’s defense was the engine that ignited a College Football Playoff berth a year ago. The Hoosiers led the country in rush defense (80.2 YPG), ranked 2nd in yards allowed (256.3 YPG), 3rd in turnover margin (+15; +1.15/gm), and 6th in defensive scoring (15.6 PPG). From that team, they return three All-Big Ten first team selections in edge rusher Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. Add in additions from the transfer portal and the returning coaching staff on defense, the Hoosiers can have one of the best defenses again in 2025.

Why Indiana will fall short of the CFP: Transfer QB, Turnovers, Schedule eye-test

I mentioned Mendoza above as the reason why Indiana could make the college football playoff. But what if it doesn’t work out for the former Cal Golden Bear? Per PFF, since Mendoza became the starter in the middle of the 2023 season, he has the 4th most turnover worthy plays in the country, and the 3rd most sacks taken. Yes, Cal has been a bottom tier Power Four team. But Indiana thrived last year with consistent play from Kurtis Rourke. If the Hoosiers can’t rely on Mendoza the same way they relied on Rourke, it could result in a 7-9 win season, rather than another potential CFP berth.

While the schedule can benefit teams – as we saw with Indiana last year – it could doom the Hoosiers this year. They avoid Ohio State, but have road games against Oregon and Penn State. The Hoosiers also add in games against Illinois and Iowa in conference play. The non-conference schedule is weak, highlighted by Old Dominion in their opener. News broke early this offseason that they cancelled a future home-and-home series against Virginia, marking the second time they have done this since Curt Cignetti was hired (they did the same with Louisville in 2024). There could be more scrutiny from the committee in nominating Indiana as an at-large college football playoff team.

Nebraska (+900)

Why Nebraska will make the CFP: Schedule, Dylan Raiola, Matt Rhule

The Cornhuskers will not have a true road game until October 11th, Week 7, when they travel to Maryland to take on the Terrapins. Nebraska avoids both Oregon and Ohio State in 2025; their toughest road game will come against Penn State in late November. However, that trip to Happy Valley is just one of four road contests, with the other three coming against teams fighting for bowl eligibility. Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, and Iowa are all winnable home games.

We tend to forget about Dylan Raiola. Maybe because he chose Nebraska over a modern-day powerhouse. Maybe because he fell behind Florida’s DJ Lagway and Alabama’s Julian Sayin in recruiting rankings. But Raiola was still a five-star high school prospect who had 13 starts as a true freshman. He now gets a full offseason with Dana Holgorson, along with additions to the receiving room in Kentucky transfer Dane Key, Cal transfer Nyziah Hunter, and two four-star true freshmen Cortez Mills and Isaiah Mozee. If Raiola takes a leap in year-two, Nebraska is a serious darkhorse to make the 2025 college football playoff.

Matt Rhule enters his third year at Nebraska. His two previous stops in college – Temple and Baylor – saw a massive leap in his third year. Rhule was 8-16 in his first two years at Temple; they won 10 games in year three. In his first two years at Baylor, Rhule was 8-17; in year three, they went 11-1 in the regular season before losing in the Big 12 Championship and Sugar Bowl. Nebraska was 12-13 in his first two years at Nebraska with a top-20 scoring defense in both years; will the double-digit win streak continue as Rhule enters year three at Nebraska?

Why Nebraska will fall short of the CFP: Defense regression, transfers don’t translate

Nebraska has boasted a top-20 defense in each of the last two years, but return just four starters from last year and lost defensive coordinator Tony White to Florida State. New defensive coordinator John Butler will replace White in hopes of making it three-straight years with a top-20 defense. DT Ty Robinson will be missed, as he led the team with seven sacks and 12.5 TFL. Nebraska is also relying on transfers in Marques Waston-Trent (Buffalo) and Dasan McCullough (Oklahoma) for their linebacker core. If the defense takes a step back and the transfers don’t hit, we likely will not see Nebraska in the playoffs this year.

UNLV (+1500)

Why UNLV will make the CFP: G5 Competition, Dan Mullen

On paper, it appears the Mountain West is a notch above other Group of Five conferences. No team in the Sun Belt has an over/under win total of more than eight. Weaker competition in the MAC and Conference USA hinders the likelihood for teams like Toledo, Miami of Ohio, and Liberty. That leaves the American Conference, which could find teams eliminating themselves in Army, Navy, Memphis, and Tulane. A Mountain West Championship win over a team like Boise State could land the Running Rebels as the top Group of Five team.

One of the splashier hires this offseason saw Dan Mullen return from the booth to the sideline. And while Mullen and company will rely heavily on the transfer portal, most transfers come from the Power Four level, including potential starter Anthony Colandrea from Virginia. Mullen could be the guy to lead UNLV to the College Football Playoff by dethroning Boise State.

Why UNLV will fall short of the CFP: Boise State

The Broncos lose first round pick Ashton Jeanty, and he will have large shoes to fill; Jeanty finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting and accounted for 42% of Boise State’s yards and 45.5% of the team’s touchdowns. But Boise State still returns 15 starters from a 11-1 regular season a year ago, including starting quarterback Maddux Madsen, five starters on the offensive line, and four members of the secondary. The Broncos are the runaway favorites of the Group of Five teams and will be a large hurdle for the Running Rebels to clear if they want to make the 2025 College Football Playoff.

 

Who is your favorite darkhorse contender to make the 2025 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!

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