6 Players Who Will BREAK Fantasy Football In 2024
Players Who Will BREAK Fantasy Football In 2024
I spend a lot of time trying to find the best sleepers, the next breakout star, the best values in drafts…But the guys at the top still deserve some love. With that in mind, I’ve identified six players who are set up to BREAK fantasy football in 2024. These are the guys whose stars are aligning perfectly to not only finish No. 1 at their position, but to have a truly game-breaking season. Think Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill last year. You’re going to have to roster one of these guys to win championships in 2024.
Let’s start at the top with a guy I was fading a year ago…
Bijan Robinson
I came on here and begged you not to draft Bijan Robinson in the first round last season. Unfortunately, I was very right. However, I am telling you that now is the time to draft him.
We all know the story from his rookie season. Evil Arthur Smith refused to utilize his rookie running back—who he had just used a top-10 pick on, mind you—to the full extent of his abilities or anything close to it. It was a disaster. Robinson ranked 31st in opportunity share and 25th in total touches among all running backs. He barely had more carries than teammate Tyler Allgeier (214 to 186). Smith’s infatuation with Allgeier was most apparent in the red zone where he out-carried Robinson 36 to 23. Even Cordarrelle Patterson got in on the action for 10 carries inside the 20, for some reason (FTN).
Somehow, Robinson broke through all of that to still manage a moderate 14.5 fantasy points per game which ranked No. 17 among all running backs. He did that with efficiency plus his involvement in the receiving game. In fact, Robinson was third at the position in targets and finished No. 6 in receptions and fourth in receiving yards (PlayerProfiler).
As we look ahead to 2024, there is plenty of reason to expect a huge leap forward in Robinson’s second season. The most obvious is the departure of Arthur Smith. Not only is Smith out, but new head coach Raheem Morris has raved about his new running back and has emphasized the importance of getting the ball in his hands. When asked what to expect from the offense this season, Morris told reporters “It’s get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations that you possibly can.” That’s what we needed to hear.
Morris hired Zac Robinson to run the offense in Atlanta. Robinson comes from the Rams and the Sean McVay system where there has never been any questions about whether or not the star players are getting the ball enough. Take Kyren Williams from a year ago, for example. Williams led all NFL running backs in touches per game in 2023. Nobody is going to dispute that Bijan Robinson is far more talented and worthy of a bellcow role than Williams. It feels pretty safe to expect Zac Robinson will lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and we’ll get the full usage that many were expecting last year.
Let’s not forget the Falcons also upgraded the quarterback position from Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins. That will only help open up the offense for everyone involved. There will be more plays run, more first downs, longer drives, more red zone trips, and a lot more points scored—both in reality and in fantasy.
If there is anyone who can overtake Christian McCaffrey for the best running back in fantasy football this season, it’s Bijan Robinson. Draft him in the top-5 with confidence.
Breece Hall
Somehow Breece Hall managed to finish as the RB2 (RB6 in FPPG) in PPR formats last season despite coming off an ACL injury, running behind a terrible offensive line, and dealing with the NFL’s worst quarterback play. The 2023 New York Jets were a fantasy football running back’s worst nightmare. Yet, Hall fought through it all to put up some incredible performances. He did that by creating on his own and dominating in the receiving game. Hall led all running backs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He was also third in yards per route, fourth in target share, and No. 12 in yards per reception. And in the run game, Hall was constantly hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. He overcame that, though, by leading the NFL in evaded tackles and finishing No. 3 in yards created (PlayerProfiler.com).
It’s hard to believe how good he really was in that environment. Once he was fully incorporated back into the offense after the team took it easy on his recovered knee in the first four weeks, Hall averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage for the rest of the season. He was at his best over the final five weeks, when he finished as a top-3 running back four times and averaged 25.8 fantasy points.
Imagine what he is going to do with a full offseason and training camp, a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and an upgraded offensive line. That’s right, no more getting stuffed in the backfield on nearly every carry. The Jets added three starters on the offensive line—eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses. It’s going to be a whole new game up front. That will help Hall to rip off big plays in the run game, command targets out of the backfield, and his touchdown numbers are going to get a healthy boost. With a top-10 defense on the other side, the Jets will lean on their 23-year old running back to close out games on top of being their best playmaker. Breece Hall has a real chance to break fantasy football and be the No. 1 running back in 2024.
Drake London
Just like with Bijan Robinson earlier, we are celebrating the departures of Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder for Drake London as well. London has had a disappointing start to his career from a raw numbers standpoint. However, in his rookie season in particular, London flashed some exceptional peripheral numbers. In 2022, London was targeted 117 times and finished top-5 in target share (29.4%) among all NFL wide receivers. He was No. 2 in targets per route, top-12 in yards per route run (2.40), and No. 16 in yards per team pass attempt. While those obviously don’t directly translate into fantasy points, they give us the confidence that Drake London is a quality NFL wide receiver who just needs a better environment and a quarterback upgrade.
Enter Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins. Robinson, as mentioned earlier, comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree so he understands what is involved with building a quality offense that gets the ball into the hands of its best players. That’s something that was missing in Atlanta a year ago. Cousins already has familiarity with the offensive scheme considering he has worked in that system before in both Minnesota and Washington. Those two will come together to put out a competent offense that, at worst, will be a significant upgrade over last season’s mess under Arthur Smith. If all the stars align properly, the Falcons could wind up with one of the best units in the league.
That will only be good for London who has flashed the ability to become the true alpha that we thought he would become when he entered the league. There are two weeks from 2023 that really show us that upside and could become a more regular occurrence with competent coaching and quarterback play. The first was Week 6 against Washington when London caught nine passes for 125 yards and scored as the WR5 for the week. He was also the WR2 a few weeks later when he torched the Bucs for 172 yards and 29.2 fantasy points on 10 receptions.
London has led the team in targets in both of his seasons. That will continue in 2024. The difference will be higher volume and more catchable targets
It’s a major projection to think Drake London could be a top-10 wide receiver in fantasy football. But he’s only just turning 23 years old and has given us enough taste of his potential to confidently predict the time is now. It’s going to be a consolidated offense—most of the touches will go to London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. The talent is there. The quarterback is there. The competent coaching is there. We’ll even see a major uptick in overall volume and red zone targets. We’ve seen wide receivers break fantasy football in this McVay style offense before. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in Los Angeles and Justin Jefferson with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. Could Drake London be next?
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had three-straight seasons of 90 or more receptions to begin his career. His targets have gone up every year. His receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns have increased every season. He has been the WR26, WR10, and WR4 in fantasy points per game. Could this be the year he gets to WR1?
St. Brown averaged just under 21 fantasy points per game in 2023 on the back of 119 receptions, 1,515 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. He was top-5 in targets, target rate, target share, and red zone targets. He won on nearly 55% of his routes, according to PlayerProfiler.com, while finishing top-5 in total route wins. While it’s no surprise that he got open so frequently—he’s well known as one of the best separators and route runners in the NFL by now—but St. Brown also dominated after the catch as well. He ate up nearly 700 yards post-reception which was second only to CeeDee Lamb.
St. Brown was able to maintain his incredible efficiency despite being used more down the field than in seasons past. He debunked the notion that he was just an underneath guy by opening up his route tree to incorporate more intermediate and deep patterns. His average target distance increased by nearly two yards and his deep ball targets went up from six in 2022 to 16.
If those numbers continue to rise, it could be all it takes for St. Brown to become the top scoring wide receiver in fantasy football. He will continue to see a ton of passes go in his direction. The targets will be hyper consolidated in Detroit between St. Brown, tight end Sam Laporta, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Jameson Williams will be a distant fourth option. And any fear of Jared Goff at quarterback has been long forgotten as Goff has played well for multiple seasons with the Lions. He can absolutely help fuel a WR1 season for Amon-Ra St. Brown, similar to what Kirk Cousins did with Justin Jefferson in Minnesota or Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp in LA. I will be drafting St. Brown ahead of both Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase in 2024 with the expectation that he can also outscore Tyreek Hill and Lamb if things break right.
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray might be the most underrated quarterback in all of fantasy football. He is incredibly consistent year-over-year and now he’s a full year removed from the ACL injury that cost him the end of the 2022 season and the first half of 2023. Even coming off the injury, Murray performed well down the stretch. He scored as a top-12 quarterback five times, completed 66% of his passes, and ranked top-10 among quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback. Murray’s legs looked healthy, too. He ran five or more times in seven-of-eight games and totaled 244 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He had the offense rolling, too, averaging 22.4 points per game in his eight starts. That would have slotted between the Texans at 22.7 and the Chiefs at 22.2 (FantasyAlarm).
We forget how good Kyler Murray has been in fantasy football during his career. It didn’t always look pretty in the dreadful Kliff Kingsbury offense, but Murray seemed to always get there for fantasy purposes. In his career, Murray has scored as the QB11 (rookie season), QB3, QB4, and QB7. Then upon his return from the ACL, he was the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Injury recovery aside, Murray was still playing in a brand new offense that he never practiced with prior to his return. He was rehabbing during the offseason installs and training camp.
Now, Murray has a full offseason and preseason to work with his teammates and coaches. He will also get to enjoy new weapons and a bolstered offensive line. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a major difference maker on top of last year’s breakout star tight end Trey McBride.
Kyler Murray could break fantasy football in 2024. He has legitimate QB1 overall upside. He’s got his health, great weapons, an improved offensive line, and a bad defense on the other side that should keep him throwing (and running). The konami code factor could have him scoring among the elite players at the position. Yet, you can get him at a multi-round discount compared to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Even Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, and Joe Burrow often go ahead of him in drafts. Kyler Murray will be one of my most drafted quarterbacks in 2024. I urge you to follow suit.
Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson’s rookie season seemed to end about as fast as it began. But, man, when he was on the field, he was electric. He started four games but only made it through two healthy. In those two games, he averaged more than 25 fantasy points and scored as the QB2 and QB4. A lot of that was due to his legs. He ran for 136 yards and scored a rushing touchdown in three of his four games. It was an extremely small sample, but Richardson ranked No. 5 among quarterbacks in rush attempts per game and No. 3 in red zone carries per game. That all culminated in 0.81 fantasy points per dropback which would have ranked best among all quarterbacks.
Now healthy heading into the 2024 season, Anthony Richardson holds as much upside as any quarterback in fantasy football. He will pair his incredible rushing ability with improved weaponry around him. Remember, Richardson only played about half a game with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield last season. It will be fun to see those two pair up for a lethal rushing attack. The team also brought back wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr who had a breakout campaign in 2023. They added Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the draft and are returning Josh Downs for his second season after an impressive first year.
That sets up the Colts as potentially one of the best offenses in the NFL. Led by rookie head coach Shane Steichen, the Indy offense impressed even with Gardner Minshew under center. Richardson’s skill set compared to Minshew’s opens up so many more possibilities down the field, in the red zone, and in the run game. Richardson will also benefit from the fast pace of Steichen’s play calling. In fact, the Colts were top-3 in pace of play in 2023. The faster an offense plays, the more plays they run, and the more opportunities to score fantasy points there are.
There is no reason why a healthy Anthony Richardson can’t be a top-5 quarterback in fantasy football. He has the skill set, the supporting cast, and a sharp offensive play caller putting him in position to succeed. He will challenge the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen to be the top scoring quarterback in all of fantasy football. Yet, you can draft him multiple rounds after those guys come off the board. Anthony Richardson is the league-winning quarterback of 2024.
Who are your picks to BREAK fantasy football in 2024? Join us on Discord and let’s discuss!
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