Draft With Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100!
Training camps are in full swing and home league drafts are so close you can almost taste the wings, beer, and tears of your league mates after drafting the ultimate team. I’m here to help in that endeavor (the tears part, not the wings or beer) with stats that every fantasy footballer needs to know going into the 2022 season. Let’s see what the AFC North has in store.
Note: Most of these stats can be found at PFF and PlayerProfiler.com
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
- 14.9 The amount of fantasy points Mark Andrews averaged with Lamar Jackson. He averaged a league leading 21.8 with Tyler Huntley under center. For this reason and with things trending towards Baltimore running more in 2022 I’m fading Mark Andrews.
- 146.76 This is J.K. Dobbins’ Sparq score which takes a wholistic look at athleticism. This is in the 99th percentile, or what we call in the industry the “beast territory”. Doctors have continually stated that elite athletes can come back faster from ACL injuries. With the recent news that he’s looking ready for Week 1 I’m all in on the Dobbins train.
- 67.1 Percent This was the adjusted completion percentage for Lamar Jackson on intermediate passes ranking fifth among QBs in 2021. This also happens to be where Rashod Bateman, Jackson’s new #1 wide receiver, typically runs his routes. This is in contrast to the deep threat Marquise Brown where Jackson had a 40.7 percent adjusted completion percentage. Look for Bateman and Jackson to gel quickly.
- 35.7 Percent This was the college target share for Rashod Bateman which ranks in the 98th percentile. Do you have any thoughts on him not being able to shoulder the load of the top receiver?
- 55.7 The PFF grade for Devin Duvernay in 2021 which ranked 105th out of 110 qualified receivers. He is currently the favorite to be the second receiver on the field for the Ravens. It will be a muddled mess behind Bateman in 2022 that you should stay away from.
Cincinnati Bengals
- WR22 The expected fantasy points per game for Ja’marr Chase in 2021. He actually finished as the WR5, the 2nd biggest difference in the league. More volume than his 128 targets can keep him in the top wide receiver conversation, but it’s highly likely he’ll regress on a per target basis.
- 24.5 Percent The targets per route run for Tee Higgins compared to 23.9 for Chase. Higgins isn’t as explosive as Chase but he commands a similar amount of targets when on the field as a route technician. There’s a small chance Higgins actually outscores Chase in PPR leagues.
- 19.7 This is the expected fantasy points for Joe Burrow in 2021 which ranked 10th among QBs. Even with a ridiculously efficient season with an 8.9 yards per attempt and 6.5 touchdown percentage burrow ended up at QB8. Unless the Bengals decide to throw much more in 2022 and pick up their 24th ranked pace of play, QB8 is Burrow’s ceiling.
- 11.39 The expected touchdowns for Joe Mixon, when he actually scored 16. This -4.61 difference leaves him as the fourth biggest touchdown regression candidate among running backs. This also goes along with a slow pace of play team, a low efficiency (2.31 yards created per touch ranked #35), and new that they want to take even more pass attempts away from him. I’m below consensus on Mixon.
- 9 The number of games in 2021 Tyler Boyd finished as a WR3 or better for fantasy teams as he ended the year at WR32 in PPR. This was with a mostly healthy Chase and Higgins. If one of them were to get hurt for any length of time Boyd would skyrocket to a WR2 in your lineup. He is currently going as WR49 in PPR drafts.
Cleveland Browns
- 127 The difference in passing plays in 2021 for the Cowboys and Browns, with the latter ranking 28th in the NFL. Cooper has been a declining player with drops in PFF grade and yards per route run each year. A declining player on a run-first, slow-paced team with a bad QB gives me the willies.
- 7.0 The average amount of defenders in the box Nick Chubb was faced with in 2021 which ranked second among running backs. There is no reason to be scared that team will stack the box against Chubb because of Jacoby Brissett’s limitations…they already have been.
- 17.4 This is the average PPR fantasy points per game for Kareem Hunt in the first 6 games before his injury in 2021 when he played his normal allotment of snaps. This would’ve been RB8 over the full season. He is currently being drafted at RB32.
- +28.1 Percent The target premium for David Njoku in 2021 which measures the additional fantasy points per target he receives over and above the other pass catchers on the Browns. This ranked third among tight ends. In layman’s terms, he is very good but has been held back by playing time and middling quarterback play. One of those things will be rectified in week 1 with Austin Hooper, and the other should be in week 13 with Deshaun Watson back.
- 607 The amount of yards for Zach Pascal in 2019. Why is this relevant to Jacoby Brissett? Brissett started 15 of a possible 16 games for the Colts that year and Pascal was the leading receiver. Will any receiver on the Browns be roster-worthy for the first 11 games of 2022?
Pittsburgh Steelers
- .213 The adjusted EPA per play for Mitch Trubisky in 2018 which ranked eighth among QBs. This measures how many points a player is worth to a team above expectation and is strongly correlated with fantasy points. Trubisky finished as the QB11 that year in points per game. He could be sneaky in two QB leagues this year in a better offensive environment.
- 2 This is where Trubisky ranks in running back target share for his career among active QBs. This assures that Najee Harris will, at the least, maintain his gaudy 14.5 percent target share to go along with the most routes run among running backs.
- 81.7 The true catch rate for Diontae Johnson which ranked 58th among wide receivers in 2021. This stat only considers targets deemed catchable by a reciever. His rate in 2020? 81.5 percent. Johnson is an elite route runner with bad hands and a 7th percentile catch radius.
- 3.3 Percent This is the big time throw rate for Mitchell Trubisky in 2020, the last time we saw him start 9 games or more. This ranked 32nd among QBs that year and is a scary proposition for the deep threat Chase Claypool.
- 20 The amount of redzone targets for Pat Freiermuth in 2021 which ranked first among tight ends. With a lower pass volume expected in 2022 you won’t be able to count on him for elite yardage, but Freiermuth is a decent bet to fall into the end zone enough to be a fringe TE1.
DRAFT WITH US ON UNDERDOG! | PROMO CODE: YARDSPER
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | REDRAFT | BEST BALL
