3 Buy Low Dynasty WRs
It’s officially the dynasty off-season! Unquestionably the best part about dynasty, in my opinion, is rebuilding or reloading from the previous season, and it’s never too early to start. We saw some good, some bad, and some ugly from WRs this year. Cooper Kupp became a fantasy god, Brandon Aiyuk was more of a FLEX play than the WR2 many expected, and then there was the season of Allen Robinson. To get your off-season started, here are 3 WRs that you can buy low on, that have upside for next season and beyond.
Gabe Davis, Buffalo
I will be speaking about this young man a lot this offseason. It may be in articles, on podcasts, on Twitter, wherever I can. Davis could be on the brink of a true 2022 breakout.
According to PlayerProfiler, Davis was 22nd in the league amongst WRs in QB Rating When Targeted (139.5) and fantasy points per target (2.00), while being 36th in fantasy points per route run (.44). In games where Davis ran at least 20 routes, Davis averaged 7 targets, roughly 4 catches, 50yds, and 13.3PPR points per game, thanks to having a nose for the end zone and his big-play ability. Davis was among the league leaders in end zone targets (13 – tied for 7th) while being tied for 11th in aDOT among players who played more than 12 games.
Cole Beasley will be 33 years old at the start of next season. Beasley has been a distraction since this past offseason due to his anti-vax stance and the Bills would save $6.1 million in cap space by releasing him. Emmanuel Sanders will be 35 next season, and his contract voids 23 days before the start of the league year. There’s a chance that Davis is the WR2 for the team averaging the 5th most pass attempts over the last 3 years. My suggestion, hedge on Davis before the things above happen.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh
It has been a fall from grace for the former Notre Dame star. After his rookie season, Claypool was considered a top 10 dynasty WR in some circles but just finished the year as the WR37 in PPR. Looking at trades from The Analytics of Dynasty trade database, I have seen Claypool traded for extremely cheap given his upside, in my opinion.
Despite Pittsburgh being 4th in pass attempts on the year, they were also 30th in terms of yards per attempt on a per-game basis. It was clear that Big Ben was finished this year, and it hurt the fantasy value of Claypool in the process. The big-bodied receiver saw 12 end zone targets but was only able to gather 1 of those for a TD, after having 9TDs the season prior. Claypool was tied for 8th in end-zone targets and had 619 unrealized air yards, good for 19th according to PlayerProfiler. Again, this is with a QB who debatably should’ve hung up the cleats last season.
The Steelers have a fantastic defense, so I would expect them to target the offensive line and a QB upgrade this offseason, both obvious positives for the young WR. The QB carousel could land a new QB in the Steel City, immediately improving Claypool’s stock. Given the ability that he has shown, and the athletic profile Claypool possesses, he could be in for a bounce-back season. If you can make a deal like the ones above, I wouldn’t hesitate.
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Palmer was drafted in the 3rd round out of Tennessee for a reason, and is a lock to make the list of sophomore jumpers for next season. Mike Williams will be a free agent at the start of the league year, and given his inconsistency and injury history, it would not be a shock to anyone to see the Chargers let him walk. This would almost certainly thrust Palmer into the WR2 role, attached to one of the best young QBs the NFL has in Justin Herbert.
Over the last 5 weeks, Palmer saw a 68.4% snap share, after averaging a 26.6% snap share in the first 13 weeks of the season. In those 5 games to end the year, Palmer saw 28 targets, 18 catches for 185yds, and 3TDs.
Mike Williams just saw 8.1 targets per game (129 total), and if he were to leave, Palmer very well could see a large majority of that target share. He came on strong to end the year, and given his draft capital, the Chargers very well could allow Palmer to take the next step in 2022.
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