2026 Week 4 College Football Best Bets

2026 Week 4 College Football Best Bets

Week 3 of the 2026 college football season was must watch. It had everything, from a Friday night classic between Houston and Texas Tech. There were lightning delays that changed the course of games. We had an upset in SEC play, where Texas A&M fell to Kentucky for Will Stein’s first signature win. There was a crazy ending in Vanderbilt and North Carolina State, that could have ramifications down the road. And the LSU/Ole Miss delivered, with the football gods smiling down on the fans in Oxford.

Now we are onto week four. Conference play begins for most conferences this week. Those who watch strictly the ranked matchups are in for a treat this week, as six ranked matchups highlight a loaded football weekend. The group of six has a massive game, as Western Michigan hosts Boise State in what could be a play-in to the College Football Playoff. Here are my 2026 week 4 college football best bets.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of September 24th. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 3: 2-3 (-1.43 Units)

YTD: 8-7 (+0.12 Units)

More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2026: A Guide

(Friday) Northwestern (2-0) vs. #5 Indiana (3-0)

Indiana – 21; O/U 49.5

Indiana – 21 (-108)

Over 49.5 (-115)

Since Curt Cignetti arrived in Bloomington, the Hoosiers are 17-1 in Big Ten regular season play and 12-6 ATS. Their average margin of victory in those 18 contests is 26.4 PPG, and when at home against unranked Big Ten foes, the margin jumps to 30.9 PPG. In unranked, Big Ten matchups at home, Indiana is averaging 42.5 PPG. Lastly, in the home opener in Big Ten play, the Hoosiers have scored 42 and 63 points, respectively.

David Braun took over as Northwestern’s head coach in 2023. Since then, the Wildcats have played eight games against ranked opponents. The over has cashed in six of them, with Northwestern allowing 35.6 PPG. I think Indiana handles business once again to start conference play, covering the spread and cashing on the over.

More: 2026 College Football Futures

#1 Texas (3-0) vs. #15 Tennessee (3-0)

Tennessee +4.5; O/U 55.5

Under 55.5 (-108)

One of the four ranked matchups in the SEC this weekend takes place in Knoxville, as Texas and Tennessee begin conference play.

Arch Manning and Texas struggled last year on the road, averaging just 19.8 PPG. In ranked matchups with Arch at quarterback, Texas is averaging 20.8 PPG across six contests. We have already seen them in a ranked matchup this year. And while they scored 24 against Ohio State in Austin, they were held to just three points through the first three quarters.

For the Volunteers, this will be the first true test for true freshman Faizon Brandon. He has only 64 attempts through three games, and in his lone start against a Power Four team (Georgia Tech), he went 10 for 21 for 148 yards and two touchdowns. This is a major step up from a down Georgia Tech team this year. 2024 was the last time Tennessee started a true freshman at quarterback, Nico Iamaleava. Tennessee averaged 22 PPG against ranked SEC teams, and 25 PPG in conference play. I think this one will be lower scoring, and will take the under in this ranked matchup.

San Diego State (1-2) vs. Toledo (2-1)

Toledo -3; O/U 52.5

Toledo: 1st Half -1.5 (-108)

Body clock game for San Diego State, as it will be a 9:00 AM local kickoff for them. The Aztecs have not scored in the first half in their first two contests against UCLA and James Madison. San Diego State quarterback Jayden Dengal completed just 24 of 50 attempts for 254 yards (5.1 YPA) in the two games against FBS opponents this year. This is the first time this year the Aztecs leave the state of California. I think Toledo gets out of the gates early in this one to cover the first half number.

Wake Forest (2-1) vs. #16 Louisville (2-1)

Louisville -12.5; O/U 58.5

Wake Forest +12.5 (-110)

This is a classic letdown spot for the Cardinals, as they just came off a must-win game to improve their College Football Playoff odds. Now, they face a sleepy spot against a Wake Forest team that covered last week against Miami. Going back to his time at Purdue, Brohm has eight career wins against ranked teams before playing the following week. Brohm has gone 3-5 straight up the following week. In their two FBS games, Louisville has 20 penalties for 192 penalty yards.

Wake’s head coach, Jake Dickert, has coached against 15 ranked teams going back to his time at Washington State. His ATS record against those ranked foes is 11-4. Now for Wake to cover this matchup, they will have to improve their penalty issues as well; they have multiple games this year with double digit penalties and over 100 penalty yards. But I believe in the Demon Deacons to stay within the number at Louisville.

Appalachian State (3-0) vs. North Carolina State (1-2)

North Carolina State -14; O/U 55.5

Appalachian State +14 (-108)

I’m worried for this North Carolina State team, as they fumbled away the game late last week in Vanderbilt. Since 2021, they are 7-13-1 ATS in non-conference, regular season games. They have played a Group of Six team nine times in that span, and seven of those contests have been decided by ten points or less. They also host a ranked Louisville team next week. I’m curious to see how North Carolina State rebounds after last week, and will play Appalachian State in this in-state matchup.

More: 7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2026 College Football Playoff

Outright Underdogs (.5 units)

Week 2: 0-3 (-1.50 Units)

YTD: 1-8 (-3.30 Units)

#15 Tennessee vs. #1 Texas +170

Texas is 1-3 all-time as a road team being the #1 overall team in the country. They were 0-5 ATS last year away from Austin, and just 2-3 SU. We need to see a full 60-minute game from Arch Manning and company away from home. I’ll take the Volunteers to pull the upset.

Wake Forest @ #16 Louisville +390

I touched on it above, but this is a potential letdown spot for the Cardinals. I’ll take the chance in this one.

Michigan State vs. Nebraska +180

Nebraska leaves the friendly confines of Lincoln for the first time this year. Matt Rhule is just 4-10 on the road since he began coaching the Cornhuskers back in 2023, going 2-2 when they are favored on the road. Michigan State hung in closer than many expected against Notre Dame last week, and I think they can get the first big win under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Give me Sparty in the upset.

Sacramento State vs. Massachusetts +154

A classic MAC matchup, with one of the longer trips possible in conference play in the country. This is a late one for UMass, kicking off at 9 PM. UMass has only played one FBS school so far, a week one win over Rutgers. I think Sacramento State gets their first FBS win against a fellow FBS school on Saturday night.

What is your favorite 2026 week 4 college football best bets? Let me know on X!

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