2025 Week 6 College Football Best Bets
2025 Week 6 College Football Best Bets
Week 5 of the college football season lived up to the hype as the best sports weekend of the year. To go along with the Ryder Cup and full NFL weekend, college football delivered in every time slot. Friday night had an upset victory with Virginia taking down top-10 Florida State. Illinois versus USC came down to the wire. Mississippi State fought Tennessee to overtime, and Ole Miss handled business against LSU. And the night cap was phenomenal with Oregon winning in Happy Valley in overtime, and Alabama winning in Athens.
And while the Week 6 college football schedule does not have the firepower like last week, there are plenty of good games this weekend. Two ranked matchups between Vanderbilt and Alabama, and Miami at Florida State. Plus, plenty of ranked teams are on the road and live for an upset. Here are my favorite Week 6 college football plays.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Week 5: 1-4 (-3.38 units)
Year to Date: 11-14 (-4.63 units)
Air Force (1-3) vs. Navy (4-0)
Navy -11.5; O/U 49.5
Under 49.5 (-115)
I was in on this number early in the week, thinking it would fall over the coming days. Yet it’s done the opposite and you can now find at 51.5 or 52.5.
These service academies have combined for 7-1 to the over this year. However, we have the historical trend between service academies going back years. Since 2005, the under is 47-12-1, a 79.7% hit rate. And with a total higher than recent memory, maybe I’ll get burned with a 59-point game total like we had in 2019. Or maybe we just hit on another service academy under and make it an 80% hit rate. I’m on the under for this service academy game.
Wisconsin (2-2) vs. #20 Michigan (3-1)
Michigan -16.5; O/U 42.5
1st Half: Michigan -8.5 (-115)
In a small sample size this year, we have seen Wisconsin start slow in each of their four games. In Power Four games at Alabama and a home game against Maryland, Wisconsin is scoreless in the first half. They were outscored 21-0 against Alabama, and 20-0 against Maryland. Even against Group of Six competition, the Badgers led Miami of Ohio (now 1-3) 3-0, and Middle Tennessee State (now 1-4) 14-10. Both teams are off the bye, but I believe the Badgers need more than a bye week to get things on the right track. I’m on Michigan to get off to a hot start and cover the first half number against Wisconsin.
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Boise State (3-1) vs. #21 Notre Dame (2-2)
Notre Dame -20.5; O/U 62.5
Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
This Notre Dame team has no room for error the rest of the season. They already have two losses against ranked opponents, and likely will not have another opportunity this season. As a result, they have to beat up on every opponent they can. We saw the last two weeks with the Irish scoring 56 points in each contest against Purdue and Arkansas. Boise State’s defense this year has struggled on the road against South Florida and at Air Force, allowing 37 and 34 points, respectfully. The Broncos do not look close to their college football playoff selves from a season ago. I think the Irish put up some style points in their hopes to run the table and make it back to the College Football Playoff.
#7 Penn State (3-1) vs. UCLA (0-4)
UCLA +24.5; O/U 48.5
Penn State -24.5 (-112)
Penn State is 12-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2021. UCLA has not led at any point this season. I was sprinkling the Bruins last week to win at Northwestern in their first game without DeShaun Foster. They still got outgained by the Wildcats and remain the worst Big Ten offense by a wide margin. Now they get an angry Penn State team off another ranked loss. I think Penn State can make this ugly in the Rose Bowl and win this one, big.
Kansas (3-2) vs. Central Florida (3-1)
Central Florida +4; O/U 54.5
Over 54.5 (-105)
Since Lance Leipold took over as Kansas’s head coach in 2021, the over is 16-6-2. The Jayhawks’ defense allows 37.9 PPG on average. We hit on this in Week 2, but this Kansas team will go as Jalon Daniels goes. Daniels is still healthy, which is huge given his injury history. Since joining the Big 12 in 2023, UCF has allowed 30.8 PPG in conference play. This could be another high scoring game in the Big 12. I’m on the over in Orlando.
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Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
Week 5: 2-2 (+.98 units)
Year to Date: 9-8 (+3.46 units)
(Friday) Western Kentucky @ Delaware +120
The Hilltoppers have back-to-back weeks against newcomers in FBS. They took over in the second half in route to a win over Missouri State. Western Kentucky is 7-2 in road Conference USA games since 2023. I think they make it eight and beat the Blue Hens this week.
Maryland vs. Washington +205
Washington is coming off a huge letdown spot, as many believed they could upset Ohio State last weekend in Seattle. Now they head east for the first time this year for their first road Big Ten game. Washington was 0-4 when traveling east last year in conference play, both ATS and straight up. Maryland is fresh off their bye week and is off an upset win in Madison. I’m on Maryland to go 5-0.
Florida vs. #9 Texas +205
Arch Manning and the Texas offense flexed on Sam Houston State a few weeks ago, but that has been the highlight of the Texas offense this year. Florida’s defense can hang, allowing just 26 and 20 points on the road at Miami and at LSU. This is Florida’s first home game since the South Florida debacle, and they are 7-4 in true home SEC games under Billy Napier. I’m on Florida to pull a top-10 upset.
California vs. Duke +124
Duke travels across the country to kickoff at 10:30 local time. We have hit on Cal twice this year on the moneyline, as the Golden Bears are 2-0 straight up as an underdog. Duke beat up on a down Syracuse team on their backup quarterback. I don’t think that is replicated in Berkley. I’m on the Golden Bears for the Week 6 nightcap.
What is your favorite 2025 week 6 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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