2025 Week 5 College Football Best Bets
2025 Week 5 College Football Best Bets
Week 4 of the college football season saw a shift among top-25 teams. Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Indiana all had ranked wins that helped boost their resume. Others, like Memphis, UNLV, and North Texas, were some of the mid major winners for the week, as they either had an upset win or remained undefeated.
The Week 5 college football schedule has arguably the two biggest regular season games of the year. Top matchups in the SEC between Alabama and Georgia, along with Big Ten play between Oregon and Penn State highlight a loaded college football week. Not to mention two other ranked matchups between LSU and Ole Miss, and USC and Illinois. Here are my favorite Week 5 college football plays.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More: Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025)
Week 4: 3-2 (+.73 units)
Year to Date: 10-10 (-1.25 units)
Rutgers (3-1) vs. Minnesota (2-1)
Minnesota -4.5; O/U 51.5
Minnesota -4.5 (-108)
Since 2019, Minnesota is 7-2 ATS coming off the bye in the regular season. Since returning to Rutgers, post COVID-19 pandemic, Greg Schiano is 10-27 in Big Ten play (13-21-3 ATS). Rutgers allowed Iowa’s offense to score 31 points last week, and 31 to Ohio in the opener. Minnesota lost their last game against Cal, where their top player, running back Darius Taylor, missed. With an extra week off, I expect him to return and have a presence in this game. I’m on the Golden Gophers in this one.
#11 Indiana (4-0) vs. Iowa (3-1)
Iowa +7.5; O/U 48.5
Indiana -7.5 (-108)
Iowa: Team Total Under 19.5 (+100)
The Hawkeyes have struggled in recent years when playing up to competition. In their last 10 games against ranked competition, the Hawkeyes average 8.8 PPG. They scored more than two touchdowns just once – the 2024 Music City Bowl where they lost 27-24 to Missouri. The Hawkeyes are 0-10 in their last ten ranked matchups, with only two coming in one score games – both a field goal margin.
Indiana has pros on their defense at every level. In last week’s 63-10 thumping of Illinois, Indiana allowed just 161 yards of offense. 59 came on a broken play. Mark Gronowski has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this season. If the Hoosiers can replicate the pressure they applied to Luke Altmyer and Illinois last week, it will be a long day for the Hawkeyes.
For the Hoosiers, only one of their nine Big Ten wins has been decided by double digits. That came against Michigan at home last year, a 20-15 victory. Michigan then went on to close the year with wins against Northwestern, at Ohio State, and a bowl game against Alabama. There is no look ahead spot for the Hoosiers in this one; they are off next week before a trip to Eugene to take on Oregon. Coach Cignetti has not let up in his short tenure at Indiana. I’m on the Hoosiers big in this one.
More: 2025 College Football Futures
Massachusetts (0-3) vs. #20 Missouri (4-0)
Missouri -44.5; O/U 56.5
1st Half: Over 32.5 (-110)
We hit on this last week, when Florida State drummed Kent State in the first half, 45-7. Since 2018, when UMass plays a Power Four opponent, the over is 11-3 with the Minutemen allowing 50.5 PPG. In the first half, UMass has allowed 29 PPG. With the Minutemen only being shut out in three of those 14 games, we should be able to count on them to score some. Missouri has a bye next week, so I would expect them to pull the starters at some point in the second half. I like this number being cleared in the first half.
Kentucky (2-1) vs. South Carolina (2-2)
South Carolina -6.5; O/U 46.5
Under 46.5 (-112)
Kentucky has scored over 20 points just once in their last ten SEC games. The under is 7-3 in that span. For South Carolina this year, they have scored 44 points in three FBS games this year. This matchup between Mark Stoops and Shane Beamer has happened four times. The average total has been 33 PPG, with the total never clearing 40. I like that trend to continue in year five of this coaching matchup.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 3 (2025)
Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
Week 4: 1-2 (+.15 units)
Year to Date: 7-6 (+2.48 units)
Central Florida @ Kansas State +185
Kansas State has been one of the biggest disappointments in college football this year. And while they come off a bye, Chris Klieman is just 4-4 SU (2-6 ATS) coming off the bye. I’ll take Central Florida with the idea this Kansas State trainwreck continues to roll.
California @ Boston College +190
Cal had a stinker last week, getting shut out by San Diego State. And now they travel across the country for their first ACC game of the season. But their opponent, Boston College, has failed to beat a FBS team this year. I believe Cal can get back on the right track and pull the upset in their ACC opener.
#23 Illinois vs. #21 USC +205
Everyone is fading the Illini after last week’s thumping in Bloomington. But USC and Lincoln Riley have struggled in road conference games since joining the Big Ten. They are just 2-5 SU in conference road games, with the wins coming against UCLA and Purdue. The Purdue game was closer than the 16-point win indicates, as the Boilermakers threw two red zone interceptions, and a third at midfield that was returned for a touchdown. 9AM local kickoff for the Trojans smells trouble. Illinois is 8-1 since the start of 2024 at home. I’m on the Illini for this Week 5 upset.
UCLA @ Northwestern +190
Probably hypocritical to take a southern California Big Ten team on the road after fading their cross town rival in the pick above. But UCLA is coming off a bye after firing head coach DeShaun Foster following a 0-3 start. Believe there could be a little extra motivation from here on out for the Bruins. I’ll take them to win in Evanston for their first win of the season.
What is your favorite 2025 week 5 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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