2025 Week 4 College Football Best Bets
2025 Week 4 College Football Best Bets
Week 3 was full of memorable moments across all Saturday time slots. Clemson gets upset at Georgia Tech. Georgia and Tennessee put on a college football classic. And the night cap was another great one between Texas A&M and Notre Dame.
Post Week 3 even saw fireworks heading into Week 4, where two Power Four schools – UCLA and Virginia Tech – moved on from their head coach after a couple of 0-3 starts. Week 4 has plenty of good matchups, with three ranked matchups that could decide the College Football Playoff. Here are my favorite Week 4 college football plays.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Week 3: 1-4 (-3.38 units)
Year to Date: 7-8 (-1.98 units)
Arkansas (2-1) vs. Memphis (3-0)
Memphis +7.5; O/U 62.5
Memphis +7.5 (-108)
From a schedule view, this is a clear trap spot for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is coming off a hard fought game at Ole Miss, and has a home game against Notre Dame next week. This is the only Power Four game for Memphis this year. In Power Four games since Ryan Silverfield has been the coach at Memphis, the Tigers are 4-2. One of the two losses came by seven. I think Memphis keeps this within the number. Back Memphis in Week 4.
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Kent State (1-2) vs. #7 Florida State (2-0)
Florida State -45.5; O/U 56.5
1st Half: Over 33.5 (-108)
This total is heavily skewed to the first half, due to the likelihood Florida State pulls starters in the second half. We saw Kent State another Power Four program, Texas Tech, in Week 2. Texas Tech scored 48 points in the first half. Florida State played a FCS program two weeks ago in East Texas A&M. They scored 49 in the first half. Kent State is not much better than a FCS program. With the conference opener next week, I expect Florida State to get out to a huge lead early and pull the starters. I’m on the over in the first half in this one.
#22 Auburn (3-0) vs. #11 Oklahoma (3-0)
Oklahoma -6.5; O/U 47.5
Oklahoma -6.5 (-112)
A revenge game for Auburn’s Jackson Arnold as he returns to Norman. But while Auburn is 3-0 to start the season, Arnold has not be asked to air it out to bring his team back. He has just 23 attempts per game, and just under 10 true rush attempts per game (eliminating sacks). And now, he faces the former head coach – a defensive minded head coach in Brent Venables – who knows his weaknesses.
Auburn’s defense has allowed 136 scrambling yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. Now, they face a quarterback in John Mateer who has 30 rush attempts for 177 yards early in the season.
Hugh Freeze has been bad in conference play in his first two years at Auburn. He is just 5-11 in SEC play since 2023. Those five wins came against teams with a combined conference record of 8-32. I don’t believe Oklahoma falls in that category. I’m on the Sooners in this ranked SEC matchup.
Northern Illinois (1-1) vs. Mississippi State (3-0)
Mississippi State -21.5; O/U 49.5
Northern Illinois +21.5 (-112)
Since 2021, Thomas Hammock’s Northern Illinois Huskies are 7-2 ATS against Power Four (plus-Notre Dame) opponents, winning three outright. They are also 11-4-1 ATS as an away underdog. There is no doubt Mississippi State has improved from their 2-10 campaign last year. I’d argue there is belief they can beat Tennessee when the Volunteers come to Starkville next week. Which leads to a look ahead spot when Northern Illinois comes to town. I am concerned with Northern Illinois’s offense with Josh Holst at quarterback. But I believe the Northern Illinois’s defense can slow down Mississippi State’s offense. I’m on Northern Illinois to cover.
South Carolina (2-1) vs. #23 Missouri (3-0)
Missouri -9.5; O/U 48.5
Missouri -9.5 (-112)
There is speculation whether South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers will play or not after getting injured last week against Vanderbilt. South Carolina did not score once Sellers left.
Missouri performs well in Columbia against other Power Four opponents. In the last 11 home games against Power Four competition, Missouri is averaging 31.8 PPG, hitting 30 eight times. So far, Missouri hit in the transfer portal with quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy. If Sellers plays, I’ll likely jump on the over as well. But in the meantime, I believe Missouri clears this number in their home opener for conference play.
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Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
Week 3: 3-2 (+1.07 units)
Year to Date: 6-4 (+2.33 units)
(Friday) Rutgers vs. Iowa +105
Piscataway is a tough place to play on Friday night. Four weeks in and we still don’t have a sense of what Iowa is – only Power Four opponent is against an annual rival, and two other games are against FCS Albany and UMass. Rutgers has been tested against two of the top MAC schools in Ohio and Miami of Ohio. So far, Rutgers has the quarterback advantage with veteran Athan Kaliakmanis. I’m on the Scarlet Knights for the upset.
Memphis vs. Arkansas +230
I touched on this matchup above. Forget the points, I’m on the Tigers to win this one outright.
East Carolina vs. BYU +195
BYU travels cross country for their first road game against East Carolina. This is Bear Bachmeier’s first career road start; his two previous games came against FCS Portland State and Stanford. ECU is 7-2 with Blake Harrell as head coach since taking over in the middle of last year. I like ECU to pull the upset.
What is your favorite 2025 week 4 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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