2025 Week 12 College Football Best Bets
2025 Week 12 College Football Best Bets
The calendar is square in the middle of November, meaning we have just a few weeks left in the college football regular season. The college football playoff is starting to take shape, with some at-large bids appearing to be locked up. How will this week’s results shake bowl eligibility and team’s playoff chances? Here are my Week 12 college football best bets.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025)
Week 11: 4-1 (+2.95 units)
Year to Date: 24-28 (-8.25 units)
Wisconsin (3-6) vs. #2 Indiana (10-0)
Indiana -28.5; O/U 44.5
Over 44.5
Wisconsin won a rock fight game last week for their first Big Ten win of the year against Washington. The weather played a factor and benefitted the Badgers in a low scoring affair. That will not be the case in beautiful Bloomington, Indiana this weekend.
This will be the sixth ranked opponent the Badgers have played since wrapping up the non-conference against Alabama. That goes back just nine weeks. The other two teams were Iowa and Maryland. How fresh can this Badgers defense be? Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is playing for a Heisman. Add in the fact that against unranked Big Ten opponents at home, the Hoosiers average 44.1 PPG in seven games under Curt Cignetti. Even in garbage time, Indiana’s backups have proven to find the end zone with (backup) Alberto Mendoza and running back Khobie Martin. I like this one clearing the point total in Bloomington on senior day.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 9 (2025)
#9 Notre Dame (7-2) vs. #22 Pittsburgh (7-2)
Pittsburgh +12.5; O/U 55.5
Notre Dame -12.5 (-112)
Over 55.5 (-108)
Pittsburgh is on a hot streak since making the move to freshman Mason Heintschel, going 5-0 SU and ATS. Pitt has scored at least 30 points in each of the five starts (40 PPG). But those games came to ACC teams with a combined conference record of 6-25 (6-20 removing games against Pitt; 23.1% winning percentage). Now they welcome an Irish team in a must-win scenario. Against Power Four opponents this year, Notre Dame is averaging 38.7 PPG. I think this one gets high scoring in Pittsburgh and am on the over in this ranked matchup, with Notre Dame covering.
More: 2025 College Football Futures
#11 Oklahoma (7-2) vs. #4 Alabama (8-1)
Alabama -6; O/U 45.5
Alabama -6 (-108)
One of two games in the SEC that has monumental waves for the college football playoff. Alabama is playing for a bye and a shot at the SEC Championship, while it is a must win for Oklahoma to keep their college football playoff dreams alive. But I think Bama turns the dreams to nightmares this week.
Alabama missed the playoffs last year, due to a 9-3 record. The nail in that coffin? A 24-3 loss in Norman to the Sooners. Had the Crimson Tide won that game, they surely would have gotten in at 10-2.
The spot to fade Kalen DeBoer’s team has been on the road; they are 12-0 (10-2 ATS) at home under DeBoer, and 5-4 (3-5-1 ATS) on the road. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS against ranked opponents under DeBoer, and 4-0 at home. For Oklahoma, quarterback John Mateer’s play has fallen off since SEC play. He did miss a game due to injury, so it is possible he is not 100%. But in his 5 SEC starts, Mateer is completing 61.3% of his attempts, averaging 6.28 YPA, while throwing three touchdowns to four interceptions. The rushing threat has dwindled as well, rushing 61 times for 145 yards and two scores. He has not had multiple touchdowns since the first SEC game against Auburn. I think this is a tough spot for the Sooners, and the Crimson Tide get revenge for last year’s beatdown. Roll Tide.
New Mexico State (3-6) vs. #23 Tennessee (6-3)
Tennessee -39.5; O/U 61.5
Tennessee -39.5 (-112)
This is the largest spread of the weekend, but I’ll back it with Tennessee this week. The Vols are off a loss to Oklahoma that eliminated them from the college football playoff. But we have seen Tennessee in these spots under Josh Heupel, in November against a non-SEC team. They beat UTEP 56-0 last year, UCONN 59-3 in 2023, and South Alabama 60-14 in 2021. Heupel is 15-4 ATS in the non-conference since joining the Vols in 2021. I’m on Tennessee to let out some frustration against the Aggies this weekend.
More: 2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
Week 11: 1-1 (+0.80 units)
Year to Date: 17-21 (+4.81 units)
North Carolina State @ #15 Miami (FL) +490
It’s Miami in November, where the Hurricanes are 5-9 SU under Mario Cristobal. There is no way Miami could lose this game to NC State, right? I’ll roll the dice with the Wolfpack in Dade County.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +120
Coastal has won two of their three road games in the Sun Belt this year. Since coming off a bye after a blowout loss to Old Dominion, the Chanticleers average 38 PPG and have scored at least 40 in their last three. I think they make it five straight in their hopes to play in the Sun Belt Championship game.
#10 Texas @ #5 Georgia +195
Must win game for Texas. And while they are in a similar scenario as Oklahoma, I think they are closer to Georgia than Oklahoma is to Alabama. I’m on the Longhorns to make things messy in the SEC the last few weeks of the season.
What is your favorite 2025 week 12 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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