2025 NFL Week 3 Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Two weeks into the 2025 NFL season and we are already seeing ripple effects around the league. Key injuries to the quarterback position now force as many as five teams to start a replacement in week 3. Other teams face notable injuries on both sides of the ball. Who can take advantage of fortunate health to start the season? Can some widen their gap atop their division? 16 games in week 3 will help us come one step closer to finding team’s identities. Here are my favorite week 3 NFL bets.
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Week 2: 2-1 (+.80 units)
Year to Date: 5-2 (+2.72 units)
New York Jets (0-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Tampa Bay -6.5; O/U 43.5
New York +6.5 (-102)
Tampa Bay has been hit hard with injuries after the first two weeks. They are likely down four offensive lineman, including tackle Tristan Wirfs and Cody Mauch. Emeka Egbuka could be out as well, leaving Mike Evans as the mainstay in the receiver core. The Jets’ defensive line could get after Baker Mayfield in this one. Tyrod Taylor’s last starts came in 2023; in those five starts, the Giants either won the game or lost within a touchdown. I think the injury bug dings the Buccaneers enough to keep this one close. I’m on the Jets in Week 3.
Denver Broncos (1-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-0)
Los Angeles -2.5; O/U 45.5
Los Angeles -2.5 (-120)
The Chargers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the division since Jim Harbaugh arrived last year. It helps when your defense allows 17.4 PPG in those contests, along with your quarterback, Justin Herbert, throwing 17 touchdowns to just one interception. Herbert has thrown just three interceptions in the regular season since the start of last year, a .53% interception rate. For the Broncos, Bo Nix is now 4-6 on the road as a starter compared to 7-2 at home. Harbaugh is 5-1 all-time against Sean Payton, and I think he pulls out another win on Sunday. I’m on the Chargers in this AFC West showdown.
Arizona Cardinals (2-0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
San Francisco 49ers -1.5; O/U 44.5
San Francisco -1.5 (-110)
Over 44.5 (-105)
While the Saints are a bottom tier team in the NFL, backup Mac Jones played well in his debut with San Francisco. Jones completed 26 of 39 attempts for 279 touchdowns and three touchdowns. We have a small sample size (4) of Kyle Shanahan against a Jonathan Gannon defense with the Cardinals. San Francisco is averaging 31.8 PPG in those contests, scoring at least 23 in each contest. This includes a Week 18 loss last year where Brock Purdy did not play, and backup Josh Dobbs led the 49ers to 24 points.
Similarly, we have three game where Kyler Murray has played the 49ers with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The Cardinals scored 29, 24, and 47 points in those three contests (33.3 PPG). In road contests with Murray and Petzing, the Cardinals average 20.9 PPG in 12 games.
With the Cardinals losing three cornerbacks in last week’s game against the Panthers, I think the 49ers offense can feast this week. Both offenses have the tools to make this one of the highest scoring games of the week. I’m on the Niners in their home opener and the over.
Detroit Lions (1-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Baltimore -4.5; O/U 53.5
Baltimore -4.5 (-112)
The Ravens became the third team in the Super Bowl era to score 40 or more points in their first two games, and the first to suffer a loss in that span. Lamar Jackson is 24-2 all-time against the NFC as a starter, with a point differential of +286 (+11 PPG). Of the 24 wins, 19 are by more than five points. Derrick Henry is coming off just his second game as a Raven where he failed to either eclipse 100-total yards or score a touchdown. I would expect him to get back on track.
While the Lions team is still solid despite losing both coordinators, I’m not sure they can keep up with the Ravens offense. I’m on the Ravens to close out Week 3.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 2: 1-1 (+.07 units)
Year to Date: 1-3 (-.93 units)
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis +164
I hope I’m wrong, but this feels like a trap spot for the Colts. They beat up on a bad Miami team in the opener, and late game play calling was overlooked thanks to Denver bailing out a missed 60-yard field goal attempt. This could be a sleepy spot against an 0-2 team with a rookie quarterback before heading out west to play the Rams in Week 4. The Titans are alive to pull the upset.
Houston @ Jacksonville +105
Houston has been tested with two games against playoff teams from a season ago, both games being decided by one score. Jacksonville beat up on what appears to be a bad Carolina team, but blew last week’s contest against Cincinnati’s backup Jake Browning. Trevor Lawrence is just 1-3 against a DeMeco Ryans’ defense since Ryans joined the Texans in 2023. The Texans need this one, and I’m on them to win this AFC South matchup.
What are some of your favorite Week 3 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
