2025 NFL Week 13 – Thanksgiving Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 13 – Thanksgiving Best Bets
For the first time since week four, we have a full slate of NFL games. It starts on Thanksgiving, where we have four games across Thursday and Friday. So stuff your plate, spend time with your loved ones, and turn on the television for a full day of the NFL. Here are my Thanksgiving best bets.
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Week 12: 2-1 (+0.90 units)
Year to Date: 26-17-1 (+7.20 units)
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) vs. Detroit Lions (7-4)
Detroit -2.5; O/U 48.5
Green Bay: Team Total Over 23.5 (-108)
A short week for both teams. But the Lions are coming off an overtime win over the Giants where the defense was on the field for 77 total snaps. In their last three Thanksgiving games, the Lions have allowed 26 PPG. In the Packers four games with Jordan Love when they follow a Sunday game with a short week, Green Bay has averaged 26.5 PPG. The Packers could get Josh Jacobs back this week after he was ruled out early Sunday. I’m on the Packers to clear this number.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
Dallas +3.5; O/U 52.5
Under 52.5 (-110)
Since 2022, the under is 15-4 in Kansas City games when the total is 50 or more points. Since 2021 with Patrick Mahomes under center, the five games after an overtime game averages just 41 PPG. Dallas’s defense has improved since acquiring Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams from the trade deadline, allowing just 37 points across the last eight quarters. Only four of the last 12 Thanksgiving Day games have cleared this total, with the average being 48.6 PPG. I think this one stays under the number in Dallas.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Baltimore -7; O/U 51.5
Under 51.5 (-105)
Joe Burrow returns from an injury that has kept him out of action since week 2. And while Ja’Marr Chase returns from his one game suspension, Tee Higgins will miss the game due to a concussion. Since the Ravens’ bye week, their defense has turned the corner and reminds us of the Ravens of old. On this five game win streak, the Ravens allow just 13.4 PPG, with no total eclipsing 46 points. No, I don’t trust this Bengals defense. But Burrow on the field should reduce the likelihood of Baltimore’s defense assisting the total (Joe Flacco threw a pick-six in the last two Bengals games). I’m on this one to fall below the total.
Chicago Bears (8-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
Philadelphia -7; O/U 44.5
Chicago +7 (-108)
Only seven teams can say they are 8-3 by Thanksgiving, and we have two playing on Black Friday. While the Bears are highly scrutinized about their (-3) point differential, the Eagles rank 6th among those seven teams at +30; Denver is the next closest at +62. Philadelphia is without Lane Johnson on the offensive line. Saquon Barkley’s rushing production is half of what it was last year. And their is nonstop drama with Philadelphia’s receivers. While Chicago’s defense has been plagued with injuries, the same can be said for the Eagles.
Yes, the Bears have benefitted from a last place schedule. But coach Ben Johnson has this team playing hard and for a full 60 minutes. Only one of the Eagles’ eight wins has came by more than this number. I think the Eagles win, but Chicago keeps it within the number.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 12: 0-2 (-1.00 units)
Year to Date: 3-16 (-6.23 units)
Green Bay @ Detroit +120
I touched above on how I think the Packers can score on the Lions. I’m on them to win this one outright.
What are some of your favorite Thanksgiving best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
