2025 NFL Week 13 Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 13 – Thanksgiving Best Bets
The Thanksgiving slate was a great start to the week 13 schedule. All four underdogs won outright, with the first two finishing as one possession games. Now, we have 12 more games over the next two days before the calendar turns to December. Here are the rest of my week 13 best bets.
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Thanksgiving: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
Year to Date: 29-18-1 (+9.10 units)
San Francisco 49ers (8-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Cleveland +5.5; O/U 35.5
Cleveland +5.5 (-110)
Brock Purdy is just 4-8 ATS against AFC opponents. We saw the 49ers take on Cleveland two years ago, and Purdy struggled against Jim Schwartz’s defense, going 12 of 27 for 125 yards with a touchdown and interception. It’s a 10 o’clock local start for the Niners as they head east, not to mention a snow storm hitting the midwest Saturday evening and going into Sunday. I think Cleveland will keep this one close and will take the points with the Browns.
Buffalo Bills (7-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Pittsburgh +3; O/U 45.5
Buffalo -3 (-112)
Buffalo: Team Total Over 24.5 (+105)
Josh Allen has suffered back-to-back losses each year as a starting quarterback. But he’s never had two in the same season.
The Texans got after the Bills last Thursday, sacking Allen eight times. Houston’s defense is the best defense in the league, allowing just 264.3 YPG and 16.5 PPG (2nd to the Rams). Teams the immediate week after playing Houston are 7-2 and averaging 24 PPG. Two games bring this average down; Denver played a short week against Las Vegas (10 points), and Baltimore started backup Tyler Huntley (3 points). The seven other games saw the team score 29 points on average.
Since the start of 2023, the game following a loss, the Bills average 28.5 PPG. Now he plays a Steelers defense that he has torched in recent memory. He is 4-1 in his career against Pittsburgh while the Bills average 25.6 PPG, but in his last two, the Bills average 34.5 PPG. I don’t believe the Steelers have the horses to keep up with this Bills offense. I’m on the Bills to cover the number and exceed their point total.
Denver Broncos (9-2) vs. Washington Commanders (3-8)
Washington +6.5; O/U 43.5
Denver -6.5 (-112)
Denver: Team Total Over 24.5 (+102)
Bo Nix is 7-1 ATS against NFC opponents in his career, only losing his debut at Seattle. The Broncos average 30.8 PPG in that span, hitting 25 or more in six of eight. Denver welcomes back cornerback Patrick Surtain II. And while the Commanders welcome back Terry McLaurin, it will be another week until we see quarterback Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota has been a formidable replacement, but this will be the best defense he has faced – 274.4 YPG and 17.5 PPG, both 3rd. Only one other ranked in the top half of the league – the Chiefs, with the 6th best defense; the Commanders scored seven points in that game. I’m on the Broncos to clear the number, while putting up some points on Sunday night.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Thanksgiving: 1-0 (+0.60 units)
Year to Date: 4-16 (-5.63 units)
What are some of your favorite week 13 best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
